Put the sexy back: Avoid roto's Edgardo Alfonzo Effect
In advance of your 2009 Fantasy baseball draft, you will do hours of research. You will familiarize yourself with players, managers and stadiums. You will make meticulous color-coded lists and annotate them with adorable little reminders ("if Russell Martin is off the board, pick Ryan Doumit. If Doumit is gone, give up and find religion").
And still at some point, you will throw all your preparation by the wayside. Why? Because you won't be able to bring yourself to draft Johnny Damon.
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| Beware of the newer and hyped players like Edgardo Alfonzo in his 1995 rookie year. (Getty Images) |
Call it the Edgardo Alfonzo Effect. After his promising debut as a 21-year-old in 1995, he topped thousands of must-have lists the following March and was drafted ahead of many a Boone. This proved calamitously short-sighted, but we didn't learn from it -- see under "Felix Hernandez in March 2006."
So here are your Too-Sexy Edgardo Alfonzo Fantasy Baseball All-Stars for 2009. Inclusion here doesn't mean that a player won't excel in 2009, because most of these guys will. For roto purposes, though, you'll do better by letting another owner take them a few rounds too early and instead selecting somebody not simmering in a saucepan of hype.
Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters is going to be a very, very, very good player. He will hit like Mauer, throw like Molina, lead like Posada and apply eye black like Varitek. I just doubt he'll do any of this with regularity until 2010 -- and based on how he has been taken among the top five or six catchers in many mixed-league drafts, that means somebody might well end up paying for a few weeks of minor-league seasoning. Outside of owning a Pirates hitter not named "Ryan Doumit," there's nothing more depressing in Fantasy baseball than watching the wires every day for news that your young turk has been summoned to the Bigs. BTW, for those inclined to ignore my advice, here's a handy pronunciation guide for Wieters: it's "white-EARS." You're going to look like an ass; you might well sound like one, too.
Instead, try ... Chris Iannetta, Colorado Rockies: The whole draft-anybody-who-plays-half-his-games-at-Coors thing went the way of the dodo bird when it dawned on roto mavens that Chase, Arlington and Nü Comiskey are similarly offense-inflating. Iannetta's gonna single-handedly bring it back into vogue.
Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox: Baseball casualists learned last season what AL East groupies and Billy Beane have known for a while: Youkilis is as facile with a bat as Alex Rodriguez is with a ... bat. That said, Youk slugged a full 116 points above his career high in 2008. Also, while his primary virtue for Fantasy purposes is that he qualifies at both infield corners, it's not like either position should prove hard to fill in even the most shallow leagues. You watch: Your league's resident chowdah-inhaler will assume that Youkilis' 2008 performance represents his true level of ability and draft him five rounds too early. (By the way, they're not saying "booooo," they're saying "soooooooup.")
Instead, try ... Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals; Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals; Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds ... hell, any of the 27-and-under third basemen who could easily out-produce Youkilis in leagues that don't count OBP. Or Kevin Kouzmanoff. Or Jorge Cantu. This is the place to bargain-hunt.
Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers: Broxton looks like a closer. He's meaty-chested and 8 feet tall. He storms into the game like Ray Lewis, his basketball-sized cranium practically exploding out of its cap. He ranks right up there with Charles Oakley and Sharon Stone in the category of "people with whom I would not like to be involved in a road-rage incident." I just wonder, based in part on the fugue state he entered after surrendering the Matt Stairs dinger in the NLCS, if he's got the stomach for the gig. Appearances can deceive.
Instead, try ... Matt Capps, Pittsburgh Pirates: The anti-Broxton, in that he shuns rip-snorting theatrics and employs a lively Beethoven sonata as his entrance music. Also, he throws strikes. Strikes are good.
John Danks, Chicago White Sox: Danks sure looked acey down the stretch, especially his eight innings of shutout ball against the Twins in the play-in game. Too, he cut his walks and increased his strikeouts in 2008. Yet the combination of the ChiSox defense (declining now that Orlando Cabrera has wandered off to irritate some other manager) and home park (fly balls go bye-bye and pitcher is sad) make me wonder if a repeat performance is possible. He's not sneaking up on anybody this time around.
Instead, try ... Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins: Just look at his 2008 numbers from June 10 onward (10-4, 2.83 ERA, 17 walks and 146 Ks in 146.3 innings) and try to make a case that he's a not a fine later-round alternative to Danks or much-hyped calamitous-injury refugees A.J. Burnett, Ryan Dempster or Adam Wainwright. Go ahead. I double-dog-dare you.
B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Rays: Hell, you might as well put the entire Rays franchise on this list following their furious assault on America's sporting consciousness last October. Just to be clear: I'm not down on the Rays, who will again out-run, out-pitch, out-hit, out-think and out-field most of the league. It's just that everybody else is up on them, which will make them the belles of the Fantasy ball -- which means the days of Matt Garza and James Shields in the late rounds are over. If you question the Tampa love, be prepared to stomach many a "B.J. Upton has mad skillz, dood" rejoinder. And be prepared to respond in a manner that will not necessitate multiple restraining orders.
Instead, try ... Adrian Gonzalez, Heath Bell and Chase Headley, San Diego Padres: Contrary to popular myth, they are still playing professional baseball in San Diego. Come watch a game some time -- you might be pleasantly surprised.
Edinson Volquez, Cincinnati Reds: I am on record as being a huge Volquez guy. His changeup is a thing of mirth, wonder and knee-buckling beauty. He looks vaguely Pedro-ish out there already and he still has room to improve (he doesn't turn 26 until July). But Volquez -- can I call him Edinson? I think I can! -- grew expectations in a big way during the first half of 2008 (e.g., when the less nimble-minded members of the Fantasy community were paying attention). In the second half, control became a major problem and hitters adjusted accordingly. He'll be drafted in a position commensurate with the pitcher he was in May and June, so lay off unless he drops a bit.
Instead, try ... Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners: I'd roll out a bunch of "his time is now" and "he's discovered the hero that lives deep within" platitudes here, but I'm saving them for the American Idol songwriting competition. Wish me luck. Anyway, draft him. Draft the living $#@& out of him.
Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers: It took a season or two, but Fantasy folks finally realized just how much of an offensive force Kinsler is at a tough-to-fill position -- kind of like Texas fanboy favorite Michael Young, but younger, faster and with a sane contract. Remember how excited we used to get about Young and how early we used to draft him? That's Kinsler this season, but with a rough injury history. Be wary.
Instead, try ... Cristian Guzman, Washington Nationals: He plays a different position than Kinsler, yes. But in shallower leagues owners often have to choose between snaring an elite player at second or at short, and I'd say Guzman represents obscene value toward the bottom of the draft board. What Guzman has going for him, frankly, is that most Fantasy owners regard him as the revolting, indefensible player he was before 2007, rather than the line-drive machine he has been since then. He helped win a lot of leagues in 2008.
Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles: I love Nick Markakis. You love Nick Markakis. Nick Markakis' friends and family love Nick Markakis, most likely. But this love is manifesting itself way too powerfully and publicly in the lead-up to most drafts. Whatever happened to the art of chaste courtship, to getting to know somebody well before diving in deep and drafting him as high as the third round of a draft -- a mixed-league draft, no less? Romance is dead.
Instead, try ... Matt Holliday, Oakland A's: I know, I know: Away from Coors Field he has only been an .800 OPS guy, plus he now finds himself playing in the scary big-boy league. Gotcha. The flip side: Holliday is a Scott Boras client entering his free-agent year. His walk rates are increasing. He has evolved into a high-percentage base stealer. Also, given that the A's don't have enough starting pitching to make a legit run, who's to say that he won't be flipped midseason to a contender with a more favorable home park? Don't overthink this stuff. Holliday hits. That's what he does. He'll be fine.
