Knobler: Rating the divisions
Before we roll with the 2009 predictions, some quick help for those of you about to be outraged: Soon as you decide I've personally insulted you and your favorite club, just cut-and-paste this form letter. It'll make your life so much easier when you e-mail your anger.
All you have to do is fill in the blanks:
Hey you raving -------,
Your not picking ------- to make the playoffs just shows what a ------- you are. You know less about the game than my --------. You probably never even played the game. I bet you danced ballet and wore a bright -------- when you were a --------. I hope you are fired and forced to wither in the -------- and eat ---- the rest of your life.
They're predictions. Relax. Enjoy. Laugh. Cry. Eat a pint of Ben & Jerry's Prediction Crunch while you read. And if one or two of these picks goes astray this summer (because you know I'll nail most of them after seven weeks in the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues), remember: Even the Tigers missed on Gary Sheffield ...
AL East
1. Boston: You win with pitching. Boston's is so deep that Clay Buchholz was optioned to Triple-A Pawtucket despite a 0.46 spring ERA until his bumpy last outing Tuesday. Last year, he won a spot in the opening day rotation after posting a 10.03 spring ERA. And John Smoltz isn't even due until June 1.
2. Tampa Bay: David Price last seen wearing T-shirt reading, "I helped pitch the Rays into the playoffs last season and all I got was this lousy option to Triple-A."
3. New York Yankees:That isn't a roll call in new Yankee Stadium, it's the local HMO checking insurance plans of key players who are aging.
4. Toronto: It's July 31, and do you know where ace Roy Halladay is? On the trading block, that's where.
5. Baltimore: But Matt Wieters will provide some fabulous Bird Seed later this summer.
AL Central
1. Cleveland: Cliff Lee will not win 22 games again. Travis Hafner will hit more than five homers. New additions Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood will rock. And so will the Indians, even with Carl Pavano in the rotation.
2. Minnesota: The Twins can't wait to see what Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins can do over a full season. Now what they need is Joe Mauer catching at least over most of the season.
3. Chicago White Sox:Creative GM Kenny Williams is considering hiring Dr. Phil to keep outfielder Carlos Quentin from slamming his bat down after disappointing at-bats this season as Sox spend another year in contention.
4. Kansas City: Finally, building a team George Brett can be proud of. In starters Gil Meche, Zack Greinke and Kyle Davis and closer Joakim Soria, Royals have the makings of a contender and, at the very least, an improved team. Only Sidney Ponson could screw this up.
5. Detroit: With catcher Gerald Laird and starter Edwin Jackson, I thought the Tigers were going to be better than last year. Then the spring was dominated by news from Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, Joel Zumaya, Gary Sheffield and Dontrelle Willis. And it wasn't good. Godspeed, Rick Porcello.
AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels: They'll open the season without starters John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar. And they'll still whip everybody in this sleepy division.
2. Texas: Former President George W. Bush is set to toss first pitch on opening day, after which Rangers pitchers will hang a huge "Mission Accomplished" sign over the mound and proceed to get lit.
3. Oakland: Very interesting lineup with Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi and Co. But the rotation is more anonymous than IRS auditors.
4. Seattle: Mariners simply cannot be as bad as they were last year. Then again, with Ichiro not being a morning person and all, it's hard to believe it suddenly will be all for one and one for all in the clubhouse.
NL East
1. Philadelphia: Everybody's watching Cole Hamels' elbow -- including the Mets.
2. New York Mets: J.J. Putz and Francisco Rodriguez at the end of games will be to manager Jerry Manuel as Claritin is to a guy with allergies.
3. Atlanta: The improved Braves are so optimistic with Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, rookie center fielder Jordan Schafer and re-focused Jeff Francoeur that they're thinking they can even win some of those one-run games this summer.
4. Florida: If Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, Anibal Sanchez and Andrew Miller stay healthy, this is going to be another of those years where Florida's playing meaningful games in September while everyone else scratches their heads and wonders how they do it.
5. Washington: Counting down the days until they grab Stephen Strasburg with the No. 1 overall pick in the June draft, even if he is a "Scott Boras guy."
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs: They'll win, but not before Thing 1 and Thing 2, Kevin Gregg and Carlos Marmol, seriously test manager Lou Piniella's patience in the ninth innings.
2. Milwaukee: Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, but CC and Sheets are long gone.
3. Cincinnati: Aaron Harang has to win more than six games. But if manager Dusty Baker even thinks of using him in relief during an 18-inning game again, somebody pull the plug on the stadium lights.
4. St. Louis: Not buying 37 homers and 113 RBI again from Ryan Ludwick. Am buying whatever Albert Pujols is selling.
5. Houston: When manager Cecil Cooper said the Astros will win 90 games, he meant over two seasons, right?
6. Pittsburgh: Please, no more kidnapping stories involving Pirates wives. It's bad enough that sub-.500-season No. 17 in a row is on deck without tossing in crime and the police as well.
NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers: Manny Ramirez is the difference in a punch-less NL West. But there's no way it's all balloons and ice cream between him and the Dodgers again this year.
2. San Francisco: Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum and Co. will pitch the Giants into position to win, but the only runs around here are in Mrs. Bochy's stockings.
3. Arizona: That's not the desert wind, that's Mark Reynolds and Chris Young swinging and missing.
4. Colorado: Ah, remember 2007? Seems like forever ago, doesn't it?
5. San Diego: New minority owner is former NFL QB Troy Aikman. Padres will audition him for rotation by May 1.
Wild cards
AL: Tampa Bay. By stretch-run time, David Price will be cooking.
NL: New York Mets. All ye Mets fans who shredded me the past two seasons for not picking them to make the playoffs, take note. But only after you raise a glass in toast to me for being correct in both of those seasons.
World Series
Chicago Cubs over Boston: A better-balanced lineup that includes more lefty bats (hello, Milton Bradley), a solid rotation, a late surge by reliever Carlos Marmol and the Louisiana State connection of Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot will help Cubs celebrate the 100th anniversary of their last World Series win one year late.
Awards
AL MVP: Kevin Youkilis, Boston. The Greek God of Postseason Hardware.
NL MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis. Mark this down for the foreseeable future.
AL Cy Young: Zack Greinke, Kansas City. All signs are that he has grown into his cleats. Plus, unlike Sabathia and Beckett, he isn't facing killer AL East lineups so frequently. Shhh!
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana, Mets. With a bullpen that actually will hold his leads, Santana will rack up the W's this summer.
AL Rookie of the Year: Chris Getz, White Sox. Won't wow you at second base, but he's consistent.
NL Rookie of the Year: Jordan Schafer, Atlanta. Far as center field in Atlanta ... Andruw who?
AL Manager of the Year: Eric Wedge, Cleveland. Anybody who wins with Pavano aboard deserves a coronation, let alone a plaque.
NL Manager of the Year: Jerry Manuel, Mets. What a debut season it'll be for CitiBank Field. Too bad Bernie Madoff won't be in his seats to see it.
Short hops
AL Most Surprising Team: Kansas City. The Royals went 18-8 last September and knocked the wind out of Minnesota on what the Twins thought was their way to the division title.
NL Most Surprising Team: Florida. Believe it: The Marlins might have the best overall rotation in the NL East.
AL Most Disappointing Team: New York Yankees. In a $1.5 billion stadium and with a payroll approaching $200 million, anything short of turning water into wine for those in the $2,000 (per game) seats behind the plate will be disappointing.
NL Most Disappointing Team: Houston. Lance Berkman has a sore shoulder, Miguel Tejada is on probation for lying to Congress and Mike Hampton hasn't pitched an entire season in more than two years, team went 0-14-2 during a 16-game Grapefruit League stretch. Other than that, things are great.
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Eric Chavez, Oakland. The guy had three surgeries two offseasons ago to try to come back. A year removed from that, his shoulders appear fine. He will go as his chronically questionable back goes.
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Alex Gonzalez, Cincinnati. Remember when he was the slick shortstop for the 2003 world champion Marlins? He's back after missing all of '08 because of a knee surgery.
AL Surprise Player: Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota. Cuddyer is back in good form following an injury-racked year in '08. He told me this spring, after a winter of tough workouts, he feels better than he ever has.
NL Surprise Player: Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta. Frenchy learned a lot last year as he struggled for the first time in his life. How do you say "Bounce-back season" in French?
AL Disappointing Player: Derek Jeter, Yankees. Sadly, but surely, Father Time sneaks up on everyone.
NL Disappointing Player: Ryan Ludwick, St. Louis. If Ludwick slams 37 home runs again, I will wear a Cardinals cap to the World Series.
First Manager Fired: Cecil Cooper, Houston. The Astros start slowly every year, things were not good in the clubhouse last year and it's been a rough spring. Oh, and the Astros haven't discussed extending Cooper's contract, which expires after this season.
Biggest Name Traded at July Deadline: Jake Peavy, San Diego. Padres are going nowhere and ace Peavy is going somewhere.
