Miller: Season predictions | 
NL Central | AL West
Joe Maddon always argued that the Rays benefited by being in the American League East.
They grew up faster. They learned more. They figured it out quicker, because of all those games against the Yankees and the Red Sox.
Fine, but what about now?
It's hardly a stretch to say that the Rays are now one of the best two or three teams in the game. They did play in the World Series last year, you remember.
But it's also no stretch to say the Rays could easily miss out on the playoffs altogether this October. They do play in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox, you remember.
So even if being in the AL East helped the Rays get where they are, wouldn't being in another division make it easier to get where they regularly want to be?
Maybe so, but you won't get their manager to say it.
"I'd much rather fight through this group than any of the others," Maddon said. "I just love the vibe of the East."
Before we go any further, and before anyone thinks we're writing off the Rays' chances, let's make clear that what applies to the Rays applies to the Yankees and the Red Sox as well. They all could be among the two or three best teams in the game -- and any one of them could miss the playoffs.
In baseball's best division, that's just the way it is.
And, they all insist, just the way they like it.
"It's not an easy road ahead," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "Saying that, we really like our division."
We like it, too, and we especially like that the emergence of the Rays (they did win the East last year, after all) means that it's not all Yankees-Red Sox, all the time. We even think that in another year or two, with Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta et al, the Orioles could become a real factor in the East, too.
For now, though, it's all about the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, and that's good enough for us. It's good enough for the AL East to top our list of baseball's best divisions.
Here's a look, along with a reminder that this list wasn't meant to be geographical, but it just turned out that way:
1. AL East: No, it's not the deepest division, because the Orioles' awful rotation guarantees that they'll have one of the league's worst records. And even though the Blue Jays still have Roy Halladay -- for now, anyway -- you can't call them elite, either.
That doesn't matter, because the top three teams are so good.
"I envision it going down to the last day, or at least the last couple of days of the season," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. "Boston's tough, and Tampa's tough. Life's tough in the AL East."
2. NL East: We just told you that the AL East is so tough that the defending American League champion Rays could be hard-pressed to even make the playoffs. Well, guess what, the defending World Series champion Phillies are no lock to make it to October, either.
The Mets fixed their bullpen. The Marlins' young rotation might be the best five-man group in the division. The Braves added Derek Lowe (and will eventually promote Tommy Hanson), and they can't have as many injuries as they did last year.
"I think it's going to be very tight, real close and balanced," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said. "Not only that, but in this division, we play each other hard."
How hard? Hard enough that Mets fans we talked to this spring said they now hate the Phillies more than they hate the Yankees.
3. AL Central: The problem with the AL Central is that each of the five teams has such obvious flaws. The great thing about the AL Central is that not one of the five teams figures to be just plain awful.
"Any one of the five teams could win our division," White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko said this spring. "And any one of the five could finish last."
Sure enough, I picked the Tigers to win it, and colleague Scott Miller picked them to finish last. Perfect. You won't find that in any of the other five divisions.
4. NL Central: OK, Cubs fans, hold the nasty e-mails for a second. The Cubs are fine. It's the rest of the division that's ugly. In fact, the Cubs might be this spring's easiest pick for a division favorite.
Yes, the Cardinals could be better, if the way Chris Carpenter pitched this spring is any indication. Yes, the Brewers could be fine, if Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra both take a step forward. Yes, Astros manager Cecil Cooper did predict 90 wins for his team.
But seriously, can you see any of those teams actually winning the division?
Sorry, Cubs, but the rest of the NL Central looks too much like Michael Jordan's original supporting cast with the Bulls.
5. AL West: If the Cubs aren't the easiest pick to win a division, then the Angels are. And the Angels, without Mark Teixeira and Francisco Rodriguez and with concerns about their pitching health, don't even look as good as they did a year ago.
The Angels won this division by 21 games last year, when no one else even finished above .500. So even if Oakland improved its offense, and even if Texas improved its defense, and even if Seattle finally has realized it needs better players, the Angels are still an easy pick.
Sorry, AL West, you're just not good enough or deep enough.
6. NL West: The funny thing is, the NL West could be tons better than it was last year, at least at the top. The Dodgers have Manny Ramirez for a full year, and maybe they have Rafael Furcal and Orlando Hudson for a full year, too.
The Diamondbacks' young players are at the age where they should still be getting better. Not only that, but they have the motivation from losing a division they felt they should have won a year ago.
But the Giants did almost nothing to improve offensively, and the Rockies and Padres are getting worse, not better.
Add it all up, and the NL West is still the NL Worst. And baseball's worst, too.
The Wild Cards: Lest we forget, baseball's playoff format effectively includes a wild-card division, too. We can't really rank the wild-card divisions, but we can tell you where we think the wild cards will come from.
In the AL, we see the wild card coming from the East. The top three teams there are too good, and the bottom two are bad enough that the top three should all have very good records. Meanwhile, the AL Central teams will beat each other up, and the non-Angels part of the AL West just isn't good enough.
In the NL, the increasing parity in the East could again send the wild card elsewhere. The unbalanced schedule means too many matchups for the Mets and Phillies against the Marlins' strong pitching, and also against the Braves. So we're guessing the wild card comes from the West, where the Dodgers and Diamondbacks get to beat up on the Rockies and Padres.
