NL Short Hops: What contenders must do -- and must not
By Scott Miller | CBSSports.com Senior Writer Follow Scott
Short Hops: AL dos -- and don'ts
Not even two weeks in and, already, we know this:
Arizona
Will win if: Well, the original plan is out the window. The Diamondbacks needed to start strong because they play 18 of their first 22 at home. Then they lost five of their first seven in the Ballpark Formerly Named BOB. Good luck from here.
Will lose if: Brandon Webb's shoulder problems continue -- or worsen.
Suggested theme song: A Horse With No Name, America
Atlanta
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| If closer Brad Lidge stays perfect, champion Philadelphia will have success. (AP) |
Will lose if: Jeff "Frenchy" Francoeur's noticeably better start (five RBI in his first six games, .520 slugging percentage) is a mirage.
Suggested theme song: Free Man in Paris, Joni Mitchell
Chicago Cubs
Will win if: The left-handed bats (Milton Bradley, Mike Fontenot, Kosuke Fukudome) must make some noise and, third baseman Aramis Ramirez, in particular, must do what he does. His 237 homers since 2001 are far and away the most by a big league third baseman (Troy Glaus is next at 207).
Will lose if: Kevin Gregg and Carlos Marmol melt down as closers and the Billy Goat rises again.
Suggested theme song: Emotional Rescue, Rolling Stones
Cincinnati
Will win if: Jay Bruce, Joey Votto and Johnny Cueto continue their progression. And if Bronson Arroyo remains undefeated and Aaron Harang works more complete games.
Will lose if: Alex Gonzalez continues to go hitless since 2007. They continue to kick games away on the road, where they went 31-50 last year.
Suggested theme song: Message in a Bottle, The Police
Colorado
Will win if: Troy Tulowitzki, on deck for major stardom, is as back as he has looked in the season's first week -- and if his magic rubs off on a suspect rotation.
Will lose if: They don't survive a rough April schedule that only Rand McNally would like. The Rockies play 11 of their first 14 games on the road. How ludicrous is their schedule? They play six games in Arizona by the time they'll play their fourth game in Coors Field.
Suggested theme song: Man on the Moon, REM
Florida
Will win if: The quintet of starters -- Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Chris Volstad and Andrew Miller -- avoids significant injuries. That happens, the Phillies, Mets and Braves will be taking cover.
Will lose if: Defense for the Marlins, like clothes at a nudie resort, remains optional.
Suggested theme song: Constructive Summer, The Hold Steady
Houston
Will win if: Roy Oswalt pitches like a guy very familiar in Houston (name of, uh, gee, Oswalt, Roy) and then gets some real, live help from the rest of the roster. So far, not so good.
Will lose if: Let us count the ways. The Astros, at midweek, ranked last in the majors in runs scored, batting average with runners in scoring position and RBI, and their pitchers were 26th in ERA and 29th in opponents' batting average. The 1-6 start was their worst in 25 years.
Suggested theme song: Flushed From the Bathroom of Your Heart, Johnny Cash
Los Angeles Dodgers
Will win if: Chad Billingsley's 2-0 start continues (and even better, if his 2.08 ERA continues). And if the current rotation is supplemented at some point this season (and we're not talking by over-the-hill divas like Pedro Martinez).
Will lose if: Manny takes a wrong turn and heads over to the dark side.
Suggested theme song: Spaceman, The Killers
Milwaukee
Will win if: They sneak in a few extra games against Pittsburgh. The Brewers have beaten the Pirates in 12 in a row, longest such streak in the majors. Circle April 27 on your calendar -- that's when the beatings will commence this year.
Will lose if: Jeff Suppan doesn't get his act together sooner rather than later. The Brew Crew doesn't need this kind of behavior from him (12.91 ERA, next start pushed back a day) in the rotation after the departures of Sabathia and Ben Sheets.
Suggested theme song: You Can Look (But You Better Not Touch), Bruce Springsteen.
New York Mets
Will win if: Good Oliver Perez shows up on the mound more often than Evil Oliver Perez. Johan Santana can't get the ball to the Splenda-sweet tag team of J.J. Putz and Frankie Rodriguez every single night. He needs some help, people!
Will lose if: Fly balls continue to drop that shouldn't drop. Daniel Murphy and Ryan Church already are on double-secret probation and we're not even two weeks in yet. And that's Gary Sheffield grabbing an outfielder's glove in the dugout. Yikes!
Suggested theme song: Hold On, Santana
Philadelphia
Will win if: Closer Brad Lidge remains Mr. Perfect and his bullpen mates rally to the cause. The Phillies last year were 79-0 in games they led after eight innings (including 8-0 in the postseason). So far, so good: Lidge had converted all three of his save opportunities through midweek.
Will lose if: Cole Hamels is gassed. He threw more pitches than anybody in the majors last year and his elbow had been reminding everyone about that little nugget this spring. Look out.
Suggested theme song: High Hopes, Frank Sinatra
Pittsburgh
Will win if: Those Pirates off the coast of Somalia come to the rescue of their baseball brethren -- though John Russell's club is off to a nice start (for them, and grading on a large curve), and special kudos to Zach Duke for his complete game against Houston.
Will lose if: Paging Andy LaRoche, Mr. Andy LaRoche. The Dodgers called. They don't want you back.
Suggested theme song: Comfortably Numb, Pink Floyd.
St. Louis
Will win if: Given Chris Carpenter's injury history, I don't know that I'd want to attach my hopes to that wagon. But the Cardinals have no choice, and here they are in a nutshell: Tuesday in Arizona, they led 3-0. Then Carpenter left with a rib strain and, more quickly than you can say "Bob Gibson," they lost 7-6.
Will lose if: Albert Pujols is kidnapped and taken away for the summer.
Suggested theme song: If I Were a Carpenter, Bobby Darin.
San Diego
Will win if: Ace Jake Peavy hangs around all year, Stanford-man Jody Gerut continues his renaissance, David Eckstein continues driving opposing pitchers daffy and Chris Young returns to All-Star form.
Will lose if: Vice president in charge of blogging Paul DePodesta is chronicling general manager Kevin Towers frantically moving pitchers in and out.
Suggested theme song: D-I-V-O-R-C-E, Tammy Wynette.
San Francisco
Will win if: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and the rest of the pitchers get freaky with the Freak Show.
Will lose if: Three home runs on opening day ... and six games later, everybody's still awaiting the next dinger. The Giants boast the extremely rare combination of having neither power nor patience: Through midweek, they also hadn't taken a walk since last Friday -- a streak covering 28 innings heading into Wednesday night's game in L.A.
Suggested theme song: San Francisco Bay Blues, Eric Clapton
Washington
Will win if: Ha! Hahahahahahaha. What are you, on drugs?
Will lose if: They play out the schedule. Poor Ryan Zimmerman. After two starts each, the top two in the Nats' rotation reads like this: John Lannan, 10.00 ERA; Scott Olsen, 14.63 ERA. The Nats' team ERA through Wednesday was an NL-worst 7.71.
Suggested theme song: Who'll Stop the Rain, Creedence Clearwater Revival
