No one expected Cliff Lee to repeat his 2008 season.
You didn't. The Indians didn't. Cliff Lee didn't.
"I'm not trying to one-up what I did last year -- or even trying to repeat it," Lee said this past week.
|
|
| Cliff Lee is known as a guy who doesn't care about his past accomplishments. (Getty Images) |
You know, trade their defending Cy Young winner at midseason.
It might not happen. The Indians, despite their poor start to the season, could easily stay in the American League Central race. Lee, despite a much improved performance in his last start, could fall apart and lose his value on the trade market. Or the Indians, knowing they have Lee for an affordable $9 million option in 2010, could ask for more than other teams are willing to pay.
But multiple officials familiar with the Indians said this week that they wouldn't be at all surprised to see Lee get traded if the Indians fall far out of the race, just as CC Sabathia was dealt away when Cleveland fell out of it last year.
"I think they'd love to trade him," one of the officials said.
Why would you trade a guy who went 22-3 and won a Cy Young? Simple. Because you don't think he can do it again.
"They might think this is the time to sell high on him," another official said.
In fact, the Indians turned down a chance to negotiate a contract extension with Lee this spring, in large part because it's hard to establish fair value for a guy who was so bad he got sent to the minor leagues in 2007, then so good he almost never lost in 2008.
Is he a top-line starter? Or is he, as many scouts believe, nothing better than a third or fourth starter?
Some people who know Lee say he believes he can be one of the top left-handers in the game, year-in and year-out. Others who watch him believe that while he can be counted on for 200-plus innings, his 14-11 season in 2006 is probably more typical.
For his part, Indians general manager Mark Shapiro said Tuesday that he thinks Lee should "be a very good major league pitcher, throw 200 innings and give his team a chance to win games."
Shapiro and other Indians people said they expect Lee to do exactly that this season. They said they didn't get overly concerned when Lee had a 12.46 ERA in spring training, or when he began the season by going 0-2 with a 9.90 ERA in his first two starts.
"He's shown improvement in each of his three starts," pitching coach Carl Willis said. "And I think we're going to see him continue to improve."
For Lee, improvement usually means improved command of his fastball. He's never overpowering, so he depends on commanding the fastball, especially low in the strike zone.
He averaged just 1.37 walks per nine innings last year, and had 11 starts where he didn't walk any batters. In three starts this season, Lee has walked eight in 16 innings.
Some of that, though, is by design.
"Last year, he attacked the zone with no fear," said Kelly Shoppach, Lee's regular catcher. "So guys have a little bit different approach against him this year. We've actually tried to throw a few more balls off the zone. You win awards, guys start to pay attention to you."
But if winning awards changed how hitters view Lee, those who know him say it hasn't affected how he views himself. One friend pointed out that Lee will never write "Cy Young 2008" when he's asked to autograph a ball, and Shoppach said Lee lets go of what he's done in the past as well as any pitcher he knows.
"I know for a fact he's not the kind of guy who cares what he did last year," Shoppach said. "He can run off 10 wins in a row because he puts the last one behind him so well. He's always moving forward."
He won't look back at 22-3. He also won't look back at losing as many games in the first week of the 2009 season as he did in the first five months in 2008. He won't think about allowing more hits in the first two weeks than he did in all of April last year.
He won't worry about trying to repeat 2008, and that's just as well.
He'll look ahead, to his start Wednesday night against the Royals. He'll look at doing his part to stabilize a rotation that began this week with a 7.26 ERA, the second-highest in the American League.
With a 6.75 ERA of his own, Lee hasn't yet helped as much as he can. He finished only five innings in his first two starts, and the Indians need more from him than that.
But on the list of Shapiro's concerns, Lee doesn't rank very high.
"I think when a guy wins a Cy Young and three of four years is a good pitcher for you, you can focus on other issues," Shapiro said.
He hopes to get those other issues figured out. He hopes the Indians can overcome their slow start to 2009.
He hopes that it never gets to the point that he has to consider trading a defending Cy Young winner, for a second straight summer.
He hopes, more than anything else, that the Indians don't turn 2009 into a repeat of 2008.
DeeJayOptimus 
