Look Ahead: Don't be fooled, money is not everything
Weekend Buzz: Look who's contending again
The Yankees are running away with the AL East, smaller market clubs such as the Indians and Pirates are dismantling and the Blue Jays kissed Alex Rios goodbye via waivers, thrilled to unload his salary for nothing (!) in return.
So you know what that means? The sky-is-falling crowd already is gathering to suggest another seismic shift in the game, collecting evidence that the wretched economy is out-pacing baseball's revenue-sharing system, critically wounding small-market clubs and granting the filthy rich even more of an advantage.
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| With young talent like Neftali Feliz (left), Ron Washington's surprising Rangers are in the wild-card lead. (AP) |
At least, it hasn't been true over the past several years and, just 10 months after Tampa Bay maneuvered itself into the World Series past the Yanks and Red Sox, don't tell me there suddenly are definitive, dramatic conclusions to be drawn quite yet.
If there is an official beginning to the stretch run, it would be right now, mid-August, after the wheeling-and-dealing of the July 31 trade deadline has finished and as teams that view themselves as legitimate contenders desperately scour the waiver wire (as the White Sox did in snapping up Rios).
And while it is true that, had the season ended two weeks ago, seven of the eight playoff teams would have ranked among the game's top nine payrolls, this is what's true now after Texas surged past Boston in the AL wild-card chase over the weekend:
If the season ended today, five of the top eight playoff teams would rank among the game's top nine payrolls.
Those payrolls: 1. Yankees, $201 million; 2. Mets, $149 million; 3. Cubs, $134 million; 4. Red Sox, $121 million; 5. Tigers, $115 million; 6. Angels, $113 million; 7. Phillies, $113 million; 8. Astros, $102 million; 9. Dodgers, $100 million.
The playoff teams: Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Phillies and Dodgers. (St. Louis, 17th at $77.6 million; Colorado, 18th at $75 million; and Texas, 22nd at $68 million, are the other three playoff clubs)
What's also true, however, is that the Giants (13th at $82.6 million) are making a charge at the Dodgers and the Rockies in the NL West and the White Sox (12th at $96 million), Tampa Bay (25th at $63 million), Florida (30th at $36.8 million) also have legitimate aspirations.
No question, money tilts the balance, affording the Madison Ave. crowd the luxury to make expensive mistakes that others can't. Boston can gamble $5.5 million and lose on John Smoltz while Atlanta, much as it would love to, can't. Boston can re-jigger when shortstop Julio Lugo tanks after signing a four-year, $36 million deal while, as one general manager for another club told me this week, "That would cripple us."
Yet money doesn't monopolize brainpower, and they've shown plenty of smarts in recent years in places like Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Colorado and Cleveland.
And suddenly, a spate of Boston decisions -- Smoltz, Lugo and even Daisuke Matsuzaka -- don't look so swift while a carefully planned Texas program -- behind shortstop Elvis Andrus and the strong arms of Derek Holland, Tommy Hunter and Neftali Feliz -- is blooming.
"Really, on some level, it makes the challenge of building more enjoyable," says Texas general manager Jon Daniels, whose club moved into the AL wild-card lead by winning two of three from Boston over the weekend. "And I can say that because our organization went through it. The biggest challenge is not having a lower payroll, it's understanding your identity as a club.
"You can win. Not as consistently as the higher payroll clubs can, but the key is you've got to embrace it. You have to take certain steps. Oakland, Cleveland, Arizona, Minnesota, Colorado ... there is example after example of clubs who have embraced it and followed through with their plans. That's what we're trying to do."
Eight different teams have filled the eight available World Series slots over the past four years. And 12 different teams have plugged the 14 available World Series slots over the past seven years.
What's different about the Yankees this year as opposed to the past several is that, pushed by a Red Sox organization that has been smarter and crisper, they've gotten smarter themselves.
When they signed Jason Giambi as a free agent following the 2001 season, they got a one-dimensional player who became a liability in the field. When they signed Mark Teixeira last winter, they got a multi-dimensional player who is a threat on several levels. And in signing CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, they grabbed two pitchers who ranked among the top seven in the majors in innings pitched last summer.
"The margin for error for small-revenue teams is very slim," says Tampa Bay general manager Andrew Friedman, whose club so far is fighting another losing battle to the Yanks and Red Sox this year. "Everything we can do in a small market to improve our lot in life, the big-revenue teams can do to a greater extent and that makes it more of a challenge.
"The fact that more big-revenue teams are operating like smaller revenue teams but are able to lead with their wallets in other areas makes it more challenging."
More challenging, no question.
But as Friedman's Rays proved last year, and as the Rangers, Rockies and others are intent on proving this year, not impossible.
Other stories to watch this week:
Only the future of the Nationals is at stake: Too big a statement as the Stephen Strasburg negotiations hurtle toward Monday's midnight ET signing deadline? Not amid the club's mounting losses, lack of fan interest and last week's news that pitcher Jordan Zimmermann will miss at least a year because of Tommy John ligament transfer surgery.
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| Jordan Zimmermann's injury is why many teams don't invest too much money into young pitchers. (AP) |
Against that backdrop, the Nationals and Scott Boras, Strasburg's adviser, undoubtedly will take talks right up until the last few seconds Monday night. Boras is seeking a Daisuke Matsuzaka-like three-year, $52 million deal for Strasburg -- or something in that range -- while the Nats are not interested in, as club president Stan Kasten characterizes it, "changing the way a draft pick's worth is determined."
Kasten said over the weekend that the club has presented Strasburg with a record-breaking contract offer -- something higher than the $10.5 million Mark Prior signed for several years ago -- but acknowledged that there is a "very real possibility" that the team and Strasburg will not reach an agreement.
Advice? Well, there is this from Washington Post columnist Thomas Boswell, addressing both the Nationals and Boras: "Signing contracts, not blowing them up, is their job and their responsibility -- the Nats to their franchise and to their fans, Boras to his client. If they don't get a deal done, it's a mammoth failure of adult supervision."
Attention John Smoltz enthusiasts: Monday is the deadline by which the Red Sox must release the right-hander if they can't arrange a trade, thus affording the 42-year-old Smoltz the opportunity to flee back to the safety of the National League.
Because Smoltz has not indicated that he's considering retirement and because there are still plenty of suspects out there looking for pitching, odds are good that Smoltz will land in a playoff scramble near you sometime soon. The Cardinals, Marlins, Dodgers, Astros and Rangers are among those looking for various forms of pitching -- starting or relief -- and Smoltz likely will have a choice.
The Dodgers' rotation is so bleak in the aftermath of Hiroki Kuroda's injury Saturday that journeyman knuckleballer Charlie Haeger might actually start the opener of a key series in Colorado on Monday. The Cardinals and Marlins, meanwhile, are looking to strengthen their bullpens.
Rangers look to catch a break: As well as things are going for the Rangers right now, they're on the prowl for catching help after placing Jarrod Saltalamacchia on the disabled list over the weekend with recurring numbness in his right hand. That means the Rangers must lean more heavily than they would like on Taylor Teagarden with rookie Kevin Richardson -- promoted from Triple-A Oklahoma City -- as his backup.
The Rangers hope to swing a trade -- San Diego's Henry Blanco? Arizona's Chris Snyder? -- because Saltalamacchia's injury does not appear to have a quick fix. Richardson, 28 and a non-drafted free agent from Gonzaga, was hitting just .223 with 12 homers and 34 RBI in 66 games for Oklahoma City.
Three games to watch:
Cubs at Padres, Monday. The fading Cubs welcome Ted Lilly back to their rotation to start a key seven-game Western swing through San Diego and Los Angeles. Lilly, who has been disabled with an inflamed left shoulder, hasn't started since July 20. Next up after Lilly: Carlos Zambrano, disabled with back spasms, is slated to make a minor-league rehab start on Thursday and, if all goes well, he'll return to the rotation when the team returns home Aug. 25 against Washington. It's all-hands-on-deck time for the Cubbies.
Rockies at Giants, Friday. Who would have ever dreamed back in late May, when the Dodgers had a nine-game lead in the NL West, the Rockies were firing Clint Hurdle and the Giants' Pablo Sandoval had yet to be dubbed "Kung Fu Panda" that this series could play so big? But the Dodgers are slumping and the Rockies and Giants inch closer while tangling with each other in the NL wild-card chase. Pretty good matchup as Rockies ace Aaron Cook is slated to face Jonathan "No-Hit" Sanchez.
Yankees at Red Sox, Friday. Two weeks after the Yankees whooped Boston four in a row at The Stadium, the two clubs traveling in opposite directions meet for three in Fenway Park (Andy Pettitte faces Brad Penny in the opener) for the final time in 2009. Unless, of course, the Red Sox reverse course, storm into October and there's an ALCS meeting.
