Subdued winter meeting hinge on Lackey, Halladay decisions

Because the Angels do not view John Lackey as an October dominator in the class of Boston's Josh Beckett or the Yankees' CC Sabathia, Lackey is the top free-agent starting pitcher on the market this winter ... and the Angels remain key figures as Toronto looks to trade Roy Halladay.

That's the thread that runs through two crucial fronts as baseball officials convene in Indianapolis beginning Monday for the start of a winter meetings session that many hope ramps up momentum in an offseason off to a sluggish start.

While Boston, Seattle and others discuss options with slugging outfielder Jason Bay, while St. Louis, the Red Sox, Yankees and others talk with Matt Holliday, Halladay will remain the biggest story here until the Blue Jays make a move.

And the Halladay talks undoubtedly will directly relate to the number of teams and size of the dollars that find their way toward Lackey.

From the perspective of the pitcher, that road remains rocky: Halladay possesses full no-trade powers and the Florida resident prefers to remain close to home, locating with a new club that allows him to train in the Grapefruit League. But he also wants to win, and, aside from the Yankees and Red Sox, the Angels might be better positioned than the rest to give him the best opportunity to do that.

The Angels still are not going to deal shortstop Erick Aybar (that was one of the key sticking points last July in talks between the teams). They could, however, package one of their current starters -- Jered Weaver or Ervin Santana -- one of their current catchers -- Mike Napoli or Jeff Mathis (youngster Bobby Wilson is close to ready) -- and a minor league pitcher such as Travis Reckling, Jordan Walden or Will Smith.

With the Yankees and Red Sox, the usual list of names remains in the conversation surrounding Halladay. Yankees pitchers Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain and pitching prospects such as Austin Jackson. Red Sox pitcher Clay Buchholz. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

If Halladay is dealt, the acquiring team probably will want a negotiating window to sign the pitcher, due $16 million in the final season of his contract in 2009, to a multi-year extension. With former GM J.P. Ricciardi directing the discussions last summer, that was a non-starter. New GM Alex Anthopolous says he prefers to make a deal without first affording the acquiring team a chance to negotiate with Halladay, though rival clubs think the Blue Jays now will be amenable to that.

If he is dealt, it also will partially re-set the Lackey situation, because in an exceptionally weak free-agent market, clubs looking for starting pitching who do not land Halladay probably will take another look at Lackey. He's said to be looking for a deal in the neighborhood of A.J. Burnett, who last winter signed a five-year, $82.5 million contract with the Yankees.

Though Lackey was very good in the playoffs this October, the internal thinking in a significant portion of the Angels' organization is that, at 31, he's lost some of his stuff and needs to pitch with command -- rather than power -- more than in the past. Also, he has started each of the past two seasons on the disabled list with a sore elbow.

However, that still leaves Lackey as the premier catch in a weak free-agent market in which, behind him, are starting pitchers Randy Wolf, Rich Harden, Jarrod Washburn, Jason Marquis and Joel Pineiro.

Meantime, the hotel lobby in Indianapolis will be filled with plenty of other chatter. ...

• Teams most likely to move quickly: Atlanta and Seattle. The Braves, having already signed closer Billy Wagner and reliever Takashi Saito and extended starting pitcher Tim Hudson, need a middle-of-the-lineup bat and are one of the few teams with excess starting pitching. Braves GM Frank Wren is dangling starters Javier O. Vazquez and Derek Lowe. Meantime, Mariners' GM Jack Zduriencik has money to spend -- lots of it -- and is multi-tasking down numerous paths, including that of free agents Chone Figgins, Jason Bay, John Lackey and Rich Harden.

• Zduriencik, the second-year Seattle GM, remains the man most likely to kick-start the winter meetings. The Mariners dropped $50 million from their payroll following 2009 via free agents Washburn, Miguel Batista, Erik Bedard and Adrian Beltre and by cutting ties with Kenji Johjima. And Zduriencik is bold and creative: He helped engineer a three-team, 12-player deal in Las Vegas at least year's winter meetings.

• Players most likely to move quickly, trade department: The Cubs' Milton Bradley and the Marlins' Dan Uggla. The Cubs cannot bring Bradley back after the way he torpedoed the organization last summer, and Texas and Tampa Bay remain his most likely landing spots. It is a chance the Rays would take, according to club sources, but only if the Cubs pay most of the remaining salary ($21 million over two years). Pat Burrell remains in play as the player who could move from the Rays to the Cubs.

• As for Uggla, San Francisco is looking for a run-producing bat and Uggla could play second there with the Giants moving Freddy Sanchez to third. The Giants also are among the clubs looking at Adrian Beltre and Mark DeRosa, though as one scout says regarding the possibility of San Francisco bringing in Beltre, "When he's hitting well, he hits to right-center, and that's a waste of time in San Francisco" because that's the deepest part of the park.

• Toronto continues to field inquiries regarding first baseman Lyle Overbay. Much interest also remains in San Diego's Adrian Gonzalez. Boston has talked extensively with the Padres going back to last summer about Gonzalez, who is the perfect bat for Fenway Park and would help satisfy Boston GM Theo Epstein's goal of improving the Red Sox defense.

• There once was far more urgency during the week of the winter meetings than there is now. Part of that is because in the digital age (computers, cell phones, text messages, instant messages) GMs keep in communication far more than they once did, so the face-to-face meetings aren't as important. Part of it is because there aren't nearly as many trades consummated as there once were. "Our thought is that it's all about free agents these days," an executive with one big league club said this week. "It's free-agent signings, not trades."

• The Marlins continue to tell rival clubs that they are not trading starting pitcher Josh Johnson. And they most certainly are not trading Hanley Ramirez.

• New Padres GM Jed Hoyer's hiring of Jason McLeod as his assistant this week further reveals just how far removed John Moores is in San Diego. McLeod was married to Moores' daughter, Jennifer, and when the two divorced several years ago word was that McLeod was handed somewhere in the neighborhood of $5 million to walk away. Now, a few years down the road, the highly respected now-former Boston director of amateur scouting returns to the Padres. Under McLeod's watch in Boston, the Red Sox drafted, among others, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden.