Players not to Watch: Focus on obscurity for Fantasy prep

As I prepare for a keeper-league Fantasy draft, I've read roughly 200 stories headlined Players to Watch. Inevitably each of these pieces trains its gaze on players who have been watched, discussed, poked, prodded, analyzed and deconstructed within an inch of their being. They are less than helpful.

Tigers rookie second baseman Scott Sizemore is worth paying attention to. (AP)

The problem: nowadays, even the lowliest of 25th-man aspirants is a known commodity. Assuming you have a baseball IQ that registers in the low double-digits, there is nothing you can learn about a Watchable Player during spring training that will in any way affect his draftability, unless he shatters a tibia or joins the Chechen separatist movement.

Hence I present a compilation of Players not to Watch. Ignore them. Skip over their blurbs in baseball magazines and annuals. Focus on what you don't know, not what you do.

Catcher

Matt Wieters, Orioles: He'll either be good, very good or very, very, very good this season. He'll still go four rounds too high, owing to his esteemed status among prospect fetishists and that he'll be more fun to draft than last year's behind-the-mask wonderboy, Geovany Soto. Just nod your head, say "good pick" and move on, man. Just move on.

Instead ... Look west. Russell Martin of the Dodgers arrived at spring training in far different shape than he did in 2009, when he appeared to have spent the offseason interning at Ragu. His newfound conditioning should help him stay strong during the play-everyday-always catcher boot camp that is a Joe Torre-run team. Then there's the Angels' Mike Napoli, who does bad, bad things to left-handed pitchers. If Mike Scioscia can stop crushing on Jeff Mathis and his ability to commune telepathically with members of the pitching and coaching staffs, Napoli could be the rare 25-dinger dude behind the plate.

First base

James Loney, Dodgers: In the best-case scenario, he's Mark Grace minus the high batting average and fart jokes. Given the depth at first base -- in any league with fewer than 18 teams, you shouldn't settle for a first baseman with a projected OPS below .850 -- there's no reason to gamble that Loney will pull one of those age-26-season power spikes out of his ... uh, bat.

Instead ... Hold your nose. Owning Billy Butler will necessarily require you to follow, watch or even root for the Kansas City Royals. There will be days this season when the Royals trot out a lineup that includes Scott Podsednik, Jason Kendall, Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Guillen (that's an and at the end of that sentence, not an or). Anyway, Butler has scoreboard-shattering power and won't turn 24 until next month. Watch him this spring in the small chance that there will be enough OBP around him in the lineup to juice his counting stats.

Second base

Ben Zobrist, Rays: Can he turn in a repeat performance? Will he once again betray his utility-piffle lineage and earn MVP consideration (though nowhere near as much as he deserves, because his last name isn't Morneau)? It doesn't matter. Some owner will catch wind of the .948 2009 OPS and the joint 2B/OF eligibility, and take Zobrist off the board a few picks after Ian Kinsler disappears. Congratulate that owner on this joyous occasion. Candlesticks always make a nice gift.

Instead ... shoot for Zobrist-lite. Scott Sizemore has a guaranteed gig and, if everything plays out just so this month, could find himself hitting between Johnny Damon and the newly hooch-free Miguel Cabrera near the top of the Tigers lineup. Just be wary of a slow recovery from the shattered ankle that -- yessir -- ankled him last fall.

Third base

Chone Figgins, Mariners: What we know: He steals a bunch of bases at a medium-percentage clip; he has relocated to a home stadium that suppresses offense; his 101 walks in 2009 exceeded his previous career best by 36; and human beings tend to get slower, not faster, as they enter their mid-30s. These are not state secrets.

Instead ... Panic. The third-base player pool is as devoid of big-ish names as the second-base one, and lacks a redemptive smattering of speed guys. In the parallel universe that is Fantasy baseball, quick and slappy second basemen will have more value than their plodding low-round brethren on the left side of the diamond. Invest early in one of the elite six (A-Rod, Longoria, Wright, Zimmerman, Sandoval, Youkilis), is what I'm trying to say.

Shortstop

Jimmy Rollins, Phillies: He's had exactly one bad half-season over his last eight -- the first three months of 2009, which rendered his overall numbers bone-ugly -- and somehow this landed him on many a decline-phase list. Don't overthink this. The only shortstop that ranks as a more reliable 20/20 bet is Florida's Hanley Ramirez.

Instead ... Check out the primo rebound candidates. Neither Arizona's Stephen Drew nor Alexei Ramirez of the White Sox performed anywhere near as well in 2009 as their late-2008 surges suggested they might. At the same time, both saw notable improvement in their walk rates and can point to single factor -- a lingering hamstring issue for Drew, a disastrous April for Ramirez -- that helps explain the drop-off. I wouldn't bet on Drew or Ramirez matching Derek Jeter's numbers in 2010, but I wouldn't bet against it, either.

Outfield

A. McCutchen (Getty Images)

Shin-Soo Choo, Indians: Last year's super-sleeper is this year's over-hypee, and the Paul O'Neill impression Choo pulled off in 2009 likely represents his ceiling. Mind those strikeouts, will you?

Instead ... Turn your sad gaze to the loserhead franchises in the NL Central. Pittsburgh has an under-the-radar multi-category guy in Andrew McCutchen, while Cincinnati's Jay Bruce and Houston's Hunter Pence have lost their new-kid-on-the-block sheen in the minds of many potential owners. Watch all three to ensure that they receive batting-order placement commensurate with their run-production upside. Given one of the managers involved -- Cincy's Dusty Baker, still unable to distinguish between a guy who gets on base 29 percent of the time and one who gets on at a 36 percent clip -- there's reason for concern.

Starting pitcher

Josh Beckett, Red Sox: There's worry in certain dim corners of Red Sox Nation that Beckett might be troubled by his pending free agency, specifically that the team may have already inked his replacement in the form of one John Lackey. But really, does Beckett strike you as the kind of guy who concerns himself with anything beyond basic human necessities (food, shelter, form-fitting Ed Hardy T-shirts, etc.)? He works hard and will practice his craft in front of an elite defensive team. Good things will follow, as they usually do.

Instead ... Monitor every pitch thrown by guys on the cusp of acedom, especially Detroit's Max Scherzer. As a bat-missing sort, he shouldn't be hampered by the mostly slow and instinct-free defenders behind him. Yes, his innings count jumped sharply in 2009, plus he leaves the warm womb of the bunt-happy NL for the considerably less forgiving AL. I'm bullish nonetheless.

Reliever

Mariano Rivera, Yankees: He will pitch somewhere between six and nine innings before camp breaks. Afterwards, with the humility and inner calm usually attributed to Buddhist clergymen, he will proclaim that he "felt good out there." There is little he might do that could surprise us.

Instead ... Pay no attention at all. Any reliever competing for a closer's gig during spring training -- by my count, there are only 10 laser-etched into that role, which leaves 20 situations of varying stability -- is only two April blowups away from middle relief or a demotion to the minors. Wait until somebody gets hurt or hot, then pounce.