By the Numbers: Upton staying grounded
Prior to this season, I saw 2010 as a down year for Justin Upton. As a 22-year-old, he did something last season that only three other players have done over the past three years: hit above .335 on ground balls over the course of a full season. Not only has the feat been so rare that only Ichiro Suzuki, Hanley Ramirez and Carlos Gomez have achieved it since 2007, but Suzuki is the lone player to have done it more than once. As good as Upton promises to be, I couldn't see him hitting for that kind of average again, either on ground balls (.339) or overall (.300).
After a wretched April, Upton has since brought his batting average and power numbers up, and he is now hitting .271 with a .479 slugging percentage. Not only is Upton showing that he can match last year's 26-homer output, but he is also using his speed to do similar damage on grounders. His .341 batting average on ground balls is sixth-best among major leaguers, and unlike players like Justin Morneau, Jonny Gomes and Franklin Gutierrez, who rank ahead of him, Upton has shown us that he can sustain a rate this high for a full season. If only he can slow down his strikeout pace to where it was last year, Upton will not only hit .300 the rest of the way -- he will surpass it.
Upton's high batting average on grounders, and on balls in play generally, has prevented his Fantasy stats from falling off the edge, despite a rough start. Other hitters, like the ones featured on this week's "likely lucky" list, currently have Fantasy stats that are better than they could be, but more likely as a result of luck rather than skill. A review of their trends, along with those of players who have been less fortunate on balls in play, follows below.
As always, the analysis just focuses on a few players each week, so use the interactive tool to find other potential surge and fade candidates.
Players stats are for all games played through Sunday, June 27.
Who has probably been lucky?
Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas: Owners have been enjoying Hamilton's power resurgence, and it's not just homers that have boosted his value. While he is on a personal-best home run pace, he is also on track to have his best doubles total ever. The homer binge could last, but Hamilton has been hitting a lot of flyball doubles, which have added to a .289 flyball BABIP that is about twice the big league norm. Look for Hamilton's doubles pace to slow and his weekly Fantasy Point totals to dwindle in the coming weeks in Head-to-Head leagues.
Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati: Despite his combination of power, speed and frequent contact, Phillips has never managed to hit any higher than .288 in a given season. That's because he has always been a below-average hitter on balls in play. Phillips' indicators show him to be the same hitter he has been throughout his career, but his BABIP is currently 29 points higher than his previous best. Most likely, he will hit around .280 the rest of the way, and if he doesn't improve his steals success rate (10 for 18), he will be a long-shot to finish with 20 stolen bases.
Eric Hinske, OF, Atlanta: Hinske has a solid track record for power-hitting, but his struggles to maintain a decent batting average have put a damper on his career. Credit Braves manager Bobby Cox with limiting Hinske to just 10 plate appearances against lefties, a move that has helped to propel his batting average over .300. Hinske's .367 BABIP has played a role, too, as all but one of his 26 line drives have become base hits. As soon as he starts hitting 'em where they are instead of where they ain't, we will start to see the old .250-hitting Hinske again.
Corey Patterson, OF, Baltimore: Only once has Patterson posted a BABIP higher than .316 as an everyday player, so it strains credibility to think that he will maintain his present rate, which is thirty points higher. The fact that he is achieving that rate and his .272 overall batting average despite a very low line drive rate of 14.9 percent makes it even more difficult to buy his performance. With a dozen stolen bases, Patterson has some appeal for Rotisserie owners, but as his batting average and on-base percentage drop, those opportunities for steals will become more scarce.
Who has probably been unlucky?
Curtis Granderson, OF, N.Y. Yankees: Despite a robust line drive rate, Granderson owns a subpar .276 BABIP, which has sunk his overall batting average to .237. He hits plenty of flyballs, which doesn't do a BABIP good, but his .071 batting average on flyballs in play is the lowest of all of the Yankee regulars. He doesn't hit many infield flies, so there is no reason why that rate should be so low. Granderson should have a much better second half, improving his batting average as he works his way towards a potential fourth straight 20-homer season.
Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis: Having struck out 30 times before the end of June, Molina's contact rate has slid to a Mark Reynolds-like level, at least by his lofty standards. Still, the relative absence of contact does not explain his utter lack of offensive impact, as he is hitting only .235 and has scored just 15 times. Normally a decent hitter on balls in play, Molina's hit rate is a lackluster .259, even though he has favorable line drive and flyball rates. The normally consistent catcher should have much better production going forward.
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Gordon Beckham, 2B, Chicago White Sox: Just as more and more owners were leaving Beckham for dead, his pulse has started to pick up. After not getting a single extra-base hit for the month of May, he has eight in June, and that total could be higher if not for a .267 BABIP for the month. Even as he has started to show more power, his BABIP on line drives in particular has continued to sag. He's not back to his rookie-year glory just yet, but keep a close eye on Beckham, as it looks like he may be about to go off.
Brendan Ryan, SS, St. Louis: The slick-fielding Ryan has been helping his pitching staff record more outs, but he hasn't been able to help himself much at the plate. He deserves much of his reputation as an all-glove, no-hit infielder, but Ryan does have enough speed and contact skills to help NL-only owners with batting average and stolen bases. An undeserved .235 BABIP has drained Ryan of his usual Fantasy value, but as long as he stays in the Cardinals' infield mix, he could be a nice pickup for owners in deeper Rotisserie formats in the second half.
Who has been neither lucky nor unlucky (based on current batted ball rates)?
Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas: Andrus had a very nice rookie season in '09, especially for a 20-year-old, but it took a large leap to elevate him among the top Fantasy shortstops as we head into the halfway point of the season. Is he really this good, and can he keep this up the rest of the way? It appears that he can, as last season's stats should have probably been better than they were. Andrus had sufficient speed to steal 30 bases last year, but he hit just .230 on ground balls. Of the 45 occurrences over the last three seasons where a player stole at least 30 bases (minimum 502 at-bats), in only five of those cases did a player hit .230 or lower on grounders. This season, Andrus' ground ball batting average is up to .295, which is much more typical for a player with his speed. He can maintain his near-.300 overall batting average, and in doing so, the runs and steals will keep coming.
Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee: The last time we saw Weeks make it through a whole season, back in 2008, he struggled for much of the year to keep his batting average above the Mendoza line. Since then, he has traded off a goodly portion of his flyballs for liners, and his BABIP is thanking him back. By hitting fewer flies, Weeks hasn't sacrificed his power one bit, as he should shatter his career bests for home runs and RBI. It would be icing on the cake if he had his best batting average to date, and he is poised to achieve that as well.
Juan Pierre, OF, Chicago White Sox: He is still the king of contact, but maybe it's time for Pierre to start flailing away. It couldn't hurt much, as he has virtually ceased to hit line drives, and meanwhile, he has substantially increased his already hefty ground ball rate. Pierre is now hitting nearly two-thirds of all balls in the dirt, and as long as this trend continues, his batting average will languish in sub-.260 territory.
A.J. Pierzynski, C, Chicago White Sox: The White Sox's catcher has become somewhat like Pierre, but without the speed. Heck, even their last names start out the same way. Both seldom strike out, don't walk and possess a below-average line drive rate. Among a thin crop of catchers, Pierzynski had been an asset in mixed leagues in the past because of his consistent ability to rack up base hits, but his increasingly impatient approach and lack of gap power is hurting his value this season.
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| Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Left-on-base rate (LOB) -- Also known as strand rate. The percentage of baserunners that a pitcher allows that does not result in an earned run scoring. The research that established LOB norms and benchmarks was conducted by Ron Shandler. His research established that a certain level of variation in LOB can reflect differences in pitchers' abilities to prevent baserunners from scoring. Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
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