Will Red Sox spend big to keep up with AL East Joneses?

BOSTON -- When the Yankees missed the playoffs in 2008, they went on a $423.5 million spending spree.

When the Rays missed the playoffs in 2009, they upped their payroll by 16 percent.

So now it's Boston's turn. Now the Red Sox are the American League East power that will miss out.

The Red Sox will have decisions to make on both David Ortiz and Adrian Beltre. (AP)

Now we'll see how they react to an October off.

"I'm going to have to find something to do," David Ortiz said. "I'm used to playing in October. When we didn't make it in 2006, I didn't know what to do."

In Ortiz's eight years in Boston, 2006 is the only year the Red Sox didn't make it to the postseason -- until this year. That winter, the Sox spent $70 million for J.D. Drew and another $103 million (posting fee and contract) for Daisuke Matsuzaka, and the payroll went from $120 million to $143 million.

Maybe it wasn't a reaction to missing out. Maybe the Yankees would have spent for CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira regardless of how their 2008 season turned out.

The Red Sox will tell you they try hard not to react to the events of any one year.

"I think the best decisions that we make are long-term decisions," general manager Theo Epstein said on a quiet Wednesday afternoon at Fenway Park, before an 11-5 Red Sox win over the Rays in a game that felt very much like the start of playing out the string. "We're at our best as an organization when we execute sound long-term planning, and understand the realities that there are going to be good years and there are going to be years where things don't work out as well.

"Being reactionary might make you feel good for a month or two, but it doesn't always work out in the long run."

Besides, the Red Sox can easily argue that this year's team was good enough to win, until an extraordinary number of injuries became too much to overcome. And while a comparison can be made between the Sox and the also-injury-plagued Phillies, the two big differences are that the Phillies finally got healthy (while the Red Sox are finishing the season without Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron), and that the Red Sox play in the unforgiving AL East.

Even now, even with the injuries, the Red Sox have a 78-62 record, which would lead the AL West, would have them close to the first-place Twins in the Central and would put them right in the middle of the wild-card race in the National League.

So maybe they don't need major roster surgery -- or a huge payroll influx -- this winter.

The problem, of course, is that major decisions await them as soon as the season ends.

Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre can be free agents. Ortiz has a $12.5 million option that the Red Sox may well pick up. While he started off ultra-slow for the second straight season, his numbers now (.261, 29 home runs 88 RBI) wouldn't be easy to replace.

"People are so used to the giant numbers," Ortiz said. "Even putting up the numbers I put up -- there's no guys out there as free agents who can put up those numbers."

It's a weak free-agent class, and two of the better hitters on it will be Martinez and Beltre, the two the Red Sox will try to retain. Reports this week had them already making a two-year offer to Martinez, although that obviously wasn't going to be enough to get a deal done.

Both Martinez and Beltre should have plenty of suitors, and the Tigers -- one of the teams with the most money to spend this winter -- could be a possible landing spot for either one. Martinez in particular seems a good fit there, because he could team with young Alex Avila behind the plate and also get at-bats as a designated hitter.

The Red Sox have had no problem letting free agents leave in the past, and they're always creative. There will no doubt be trade possibilities that we haven't thought of yet, but that Epstein and his staff have.

But that's been true after good years and after the rare bad one.

"There's always urgency," manager Terry Francona said. "That's the way we do it."

There's always a sense that you need to improve, particularly in the high-stakes AL East. There's always the expectation that the Red Sox will spend to improve.

"They have virtually unlimited resources, and so do the Yankees," Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "They're really bright. They're going to identify their needs, and go get them."

It was the same way for the Rays last winter, except for the unlimited resources part. But after missing the playoffs, ownership agreed to a payroll that admittedly was higher than the Rays' revenues would dictate.

Doesn't the same thing happen in other divisions, too? Of course it does. But only the AL East has three teams as high-powered as the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox.

Only in the AL East does a team so talented -- and with such high expectations -- miss out on the playoffs every year.

We already saw how the Yankees reacted when they were the ones on the outside looking in. We saw what the Rays did.

Now it's Boston's turn.