Dec. 15, 2010

The Trendy Fantasy Blog

By Al Melchior | Data Analyst
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Most of the big-name players to move this offseason, particularly during the winter meetings, have been hitters, but Cliff Lee's surprising signing with the Mystery Team, aka Phillies, has taken the spotlight off of everyday players, at least for the time being. A handful of other pitcher signings have taken place in recent weeks, though not of same caliber as the Lee deal. Displayed in the visualization below are our first shot at projections for five pitchers with their new teams.

You can comment on these projections or offer your own in the space at the bottom of the page. Also, feel free to send them to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com and put "Projections" in the subject field.

Kevin Correia, Pittsburgh (Projected ERA: 4.38, Projected WHIP: 1.37)

Correia's career looked like it was going places after making 33 starts for the Padres in 2009 and keeping his ERA below 4.00. Last season was a letdown, and especially perplexing were the 13 home runs allowed in 82 1/3 innings at the long ball cemetery known as PETCO Park. As a pitcher who leans towards ground ball tendencies, Correia should improve his home run rate, especially since PNC Park is also one of the more pitcher-friendly stadiums in the majors. His horrible 66 percent strand rate should improve as well, so look for Correia to be a viable waiver pickup in deeper mixed leagues once again, though there is no need to use a draft pick on him.

Jon Garland, L.A. Dodgers (Projected ERA: 4.18, Projected WHIP: 1.40)

Garland had his best season back when he was 25 with the White Sox, but he was never able to match that early success throughout his "peak years," that is until he reached 30. Last year was the first time since the '05 campaign that Garland's ERA dipped below 4.00, and he struck out a career-high 136 batters to boot. Is Garland simply a late bloomer? His strikeout surge is hard to trust, especially when it's coupled with a huge jump in his walk rate. Much of Garland's success was actually due to a 77 percent left-on-base rate that he will be hard-pressed to repeat. Look for the Dodgers to get the lesser, pre-2010 version of Garland in 2011 and not the budding top 50 Fantasy stalwart the Padres appeared to have had.

Cliff Lee, Philadelphia (Projected ERA: 2.99, Projected WHIP: 1.09)

Lee is coming off his third straight superb season and now will suit up for a Phillies team that should give him ample run support. The only potential concern is his new home ballpark, Citizens Bank Park, which has been a notorious launching pad. However, he fared well in his first stint with the Phils in late '09, and he had no problems in his eight starts in Texas (2.92 ERA, five home runs in 61 2/3 innings), which is even more hospitable to home-run hitters. Look for him to have another elite-level season. In fact, his ERA could dip under 3.00 with some better luck in stranding runners.

Brandon McCarthy, Oakland (Projected ERA: 4.20, Projected WHIP: 1.32)

The A's signing of McCarthy is an intriguing one. Shoulder woes have stalled his major-league career, but he is still only 27, and the move from Texas to Oakland can only benefit him, especially as a flyball pitcher. Because of his enduring injury issues, I have McCarthy projected for only 120 innings, but if he can stay healthy enough to pitch an additional 50 to 60 innings, he becomes very useful to owners in deeper mixed leagues. He may not put up an above-average strikeout rate, but he should compile a respectable ERA and WHIP thanks to plentiful flyouts and popups.

Javier Vazquez, Florida (Projected ERA: 4.05, Projected WHIP: 1.28)

Because diminished velocity appeared to have much to do with his disastrous 2010 season, it's hard to project Vazquez to come close to his stellar 2009 stats. However, anticipated regression of his 46 percent flyball rate and a better pitchers' park in Florida should mean far fewer homers off of Vazquez. The 34-year-old should rebound back to respectability, but a return to viability in standard mixed leagues is probably asking for too much.

Dec. 6, 2010

Welcome to this latest installment of 2011 Projections: Winter Meetings Edition.

Below is a sample from our first run of projections, all for batters that have been dealt or impacted by the biggest deals occurring in the last week or two.

You can comment on these projections or offer your own in the space at the bottom of the page. Also, feel free to send them to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com and put "Projections" in the subject field.

How did I arrive at the projections for these and other hitters? I started by looking at the same data that is presented in the visualization above. A brief summary of each player's trends and what they mean for 2011 is provided below, with players listed in alphabetical order.

Kyle Blanks, 1B, San Diego (Projected Avg.: 0.234, Projected HR: 14, Projected Runs: 52, Projected RBI: 59)

Blanks wasn't dealt from the Padres, but he was impacted by the Adrian Gonzalez deal. He now gets a stronger shot at regular playing time once he returns from his recovery from Tommy John surgery, now that Gonzalez is out of the picture. Blanks was horrible in his brief time with San Diego this past year, but his elbow injury likely played a role. An outrageous Mark Reynolds-like strikeout rate helped to plunge his batting average far below the Mendoza line, but Blanks had much more respectable contact rates in the minors. Between all of his strikeouts and flyballs, Blanks doesn't profile to be much of a hitter for average, but he will put up some nice power numbers. Bear in mind that his totals won't look all that impressive, as he could miss several weeks at the beginning of the season. Once he is active, though, Blanks could be a nice pickup in NL-only and deeper mixed leagues.

Adam Dunn, 1B/DH, Chicago White Sox (Projected Avg.: 0.262, Projected HR: 41, Projected Runs: 89, Projected RBI: 108)

Dunn is about as consistent a hitter as there is, but his mostly-flat trend lines should take a turn upward as he moves to one of the major league's best power-hitting ballparks in U.S. Cellular Field. It also helps that he should have a little more protection in the lineup than he had in Washington. While the 31-year-old Dunn has reached a point in his career where some decline can be expected, his new home gives us reason to expect improvement instead.

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston (Projected Avg.: 0.309, Projected HR: 39, Projected Runs: 101, Projected RBI: 114)

Like Dunn, Gonzalez's power stats should get a significant boost with his move to Boston. It's not that Fenway has been that much of a home run park in recent years; it's just that PETCO Park is such a notorious pitchers' park. Gonzalez should come close to, or maybe surpass, his career-best home run, runs scored and RBI totals from 2009. Those numbers may have looked aberrant in San Diego, but he can put up those stats year after year hitting in a loaded Red Sox lineup.

Mark Reynolds, 3B, Baltimore (Projected Avg.: 0.225, Projected HR: 29, Projected Runs: 85, Projected RBI: 90)

The trends in Reynolds' graphs moving from 2009 to 2010 are not exactly subtle. Everything went in the wrong direction and fast. At the core of his offensive meltdown were surging strikeout and flyball rates. If he were five years older, these would be cause for great concern, but at age 27, at least a partial rebound seems more than reasonable to expect. Even if Reynolds continues to strike out more than 40 percent of the time, he has too long of a history of being a power hitter and a good hitter on balls in play to not raise his batting average, runs and RBI from last year's levels. A downward adjustment from his extreme '10 flyball rate could mean a few less home runs, though. The move to Camden Yards certainly won't hurt, though he was already in a pretty good hitter's environment in Arizona.

Jayson Werth, OF, Washington (Projected Avg.: 0.261, Projected HR: 26, Projected Runs: 89, Projected RBI: 79)

Werth's new seven-year, $126 million contract with the Nationals has drawn sharp criticism from just about everybody, except for agents and other players on the free agent market. His power is certainly legit, though he is a poor bet to increase his homer total while leaving Citizens Bank Park behind as his home. Meanwhile, the Nats are paying for a .296 batting average that was a complete fluke. Yes, it's true that he posted a similar batting average three years earlier, but as the graphs show, back then he had a sufficiently low flyball rate to back up his batting average on balls in play. The Nats have set themselves up to be a part of bad-contract discussions for years to come. Don't make the same mistake in Fantasy and take Werth too early based on 2010 stats. He was the eighth most productive outfielder in Head-to-Head this past season, but he will likely land in the mid-teens in the 2011 rankings.

Dec. 3, 2010

Recently, I rolled out a small sample of our 2011 pitching projections in this space (see below). We will keep the projections coming, bit by bit, throughout the next few weeks, and this time, you get your first batch of hitter projections to review.

As with the first group of pitchers, the batter projections focus on just a set of the projected stats. Trends and projections for batting average, home runs and runs scored are included in the visualization below. If you mouse over the points, you'll get a popup view that also includes RBI, stolen bases and at-bats.

Off to the side are some recent trends for supporting stats. In particular, each batter's strikeout rate, Isolated Power, batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and flyball rate are included. I've referred to these metrics when working on the projections, and they may help to illuminate why I see the trends moving in the directions that I've indicated.

This is our first run at making 2011 projections, so it's not too late to offer your input. You can comment on these projections or offer your own in the space at the bottom of the page. Also, you can send them to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com and put "Projections" in the subject field.

Here's a brief take on how I arrived at the projections for the following hitters, who are listed alphabetically. That pushes a certain MVP to the back of the list, so you'll need to skip to the end first if you can't wait to find out if there could be a repeat performance in Mr. Votto's future.

Kelly Johnson, 2B, Arizona (Projected Avg.: 0.283, Projected HR: 20, Projected Runs: 89, Projected RBI: 70)

Johnson's power took a huge leap in 2010, as can be seen in both his home run total and in his Isolated Power. An encouraging sign is that he achieved it without a spike in his flyball rate, and in fact, he hit flies much less frequently this past season than he did in 2009. Johnson's power was legit, but his home run per flyball rate will probably fall back somewhat to its previous level. For that reason, I see a slight dip in his home run power, though his batting average shouldn't take a hit, as his strikeout rate should rebound toward prior levels as well.

Nyjer Morgan, OF, Washington (Projected Avg.: 0.284, Projected HR: 1, Projected Runs: 77, Projected SB: 36)

After an impressive '09 season with the Pirates and Nationals, Morgan looked like he would be a reliable source of steals, runs and batting average, but all three stats took a plunge in '10 due to a mediocre BABIP. The main culprit behind his down year was a .655 BABIP on line drives that was 151 points below his '09 rate and well below major league norms. This appears to be a case of Morgan hitting a few too many shots right at fielders. His BABIPs on grounders and flies dropped as well, but those weren't quite as aberrant, so it's probably not realistic to expect Morgan to hit .300 again. Still we should expect a notable uptick in batting average and runs. I only see him picking up a pair of additional steals next year, as his pedestrian 67 percent success rate could mean fewer attempts per time on base going forward.

Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston (Projected Avg.: 0.302, Projected HR: 19, Projected Runs: 112, Projected RBI: 70)

In 2009, Pedroia finished with a sub-.300 batting average for the first time in his career largely due to a soaring flyball rate. His average sank below .290 in an injury-shortened 2010; was it more of the same? Actually, it was a rash of strikeouts that caused Pedroia's average to dip further. A double-digit K rate is at odds with his usual extreme contact-hitting ways, so expect a return to an average right around .300. He's still lofting the ball more than he did in his first two full seasons, so look for the diminutive second baseman to challenge the 20-homer mark.

Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Chicago Cubs (Projected Avg.: 0.286, Projected HR: 28, Projected Runs: 68, Projected RBI: 92)

Ramirez's thumb was hurt for much of this past season, and he seemed to compensate by swinging for the fences, as large spikes in his flyball and strikeout rates suggest. He was able to maintain good power numbers this way, but he destroyed his batting average. A healthier Ramirez should be back very close to his usual levels in 2011, but at 32, his days of .300 hitting may be behind him now.

Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati (Projected Avg.: 0.315, Projected HR: 34, Projected Runs: 102, Projected RBI: 105)

With the highest on-base and slugging percentages in the NL, Votto's MVP honors were well deserved, but can he do it again? He has been a consistent line drive hitter since reaching the bigs in 2007, so he will continue to build on his .314 career batting average. Votto has also increased his home run per flyball ratio each year, but during the span of Votto's career, only Ryan Howard and Mark Reynolds have topped his 24.6 percent mark from this season. Votto isn't about to go all Mark Reynolds on us, but his power stats may have already bumped up against their ceiling. He will have MVP-like numbers again, but they will be just a shade down.

Nov. 18, 2010

The ink on the first of the offseason deals and signings may barely be dry, but we've got all of the burners going on the hot stove here at CBSSports.com. Our player projections for the 2011 season are taking shape, but so far there's been something missing from the process.

Actually, someone is missing, namely you. We have our own ideas about the fortunes of the players you will be drafting a few months from now, but we want to hear what you have to say. Each week in this space, I will unveil the latest projections for five players, set out the reasoning behind the projections, and then leave it for you to offer your own analysis.

To kick things off, we will begin with a handful of starting pitchers. I selected players who either have trends that are a challenge to interpret or who appeared to be over- or under-appreciated in Fantasy this year. The recent ERA and WHIP trends are displayed for each pitcher as well as their current 2011 projection (marked in red). To help clarify the reasoning behind the projection, I have also included graphs displaying recent trends for home run, strikeout, walk and left-on-base rate (LOB), all of which I relied upon in part to make the projections.

Dan Haren, L.A. Angels (Projected ERA: 3.29, Projected WHIP: 1.14)

Prior to 2010, Haren had been one of the most productive starters in Fantasy for three years running. After stumbling badly in the first half of the season, can we expect him to return to his previous level? I think he can, as his biggest outlier this season was his home run rate. He lowered it back to 1.0 after the All-Star break, and he also moved to a more homer-neutral ballpark in Anaheim, where he will remain in 2011. Haren should also improve upon a .318 BABIP which will bring his WHIP back down, along with his ERA.

Shaun Marcum, Toronto (Projected ERA: 3.51, Projected WHIP: 1.14)

Marcum finished the year as the 30th-ranked starting pitcher in standard Head-to-Head leagues, yet his ownership rates were not at the same level as similarly-ranked pitchers, like Ryan Dempster and Ervin Santana. Owners have no reason to be as distrustful in 2011. I see Marcum ranking among the top 30 again, and his performance should be a touch better. All of his supporting trends, aside from LOB, are moving in the right direction. Even if he gives some of his gains from 2008 back (he missed 2009 due to Tommy John surgery), Marcum is enough of a flyball pitcher that he should continue to be successful on limiting hits on balls in play.

Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia (Projected ERA: 3.60, Projected WHIP: 1.23)

Oswalt was already having a comeback season before he came to Philadelphia and terrorized opposing hitters for two months. His 13-13 record aside, it was arguably the best season of his career. His success was built on sharp upticks in his strikeout and LOB rates. He won't regress back to being a 4.00-plus ERA pitcher, like he was in '09; that was an artifact of a 69 percent LOB that was out of whack with his norm. However, upward spikes of this magnitude don't often stick for 33-year-olds, so I see him reverting back to being roughly the pitcher he was in '08.

David Price, Tampa Bay (Projected ERA: 3.47, Projected WHIP: 1.22)

Start with the hype that comes with having been the top overall pick in the draft and stir in breakout numbers, and what you get is the next elite starter in Fantasy, right? There is no question that Price will be among the best starting pitchers in the majors next year -- probably in the top 20 -- but I am not ready to put him in or near the top 10 just yet. This year's "breakout" was fueled by an 80 percent LOB. Even pitchers with names like Halladay and Wainwright don't put up rates like that every year. LOB correlates strongly with ERA, so the fact that Price is due to regress in this stat is no trivial thing. He'll still keep runners off the basepaths at a good rate, so his WHIP shouldn't change much, but expect his ERA to move well north of 3.00.

Clayton Richard, San Diego (Projected ERA: 3.83, Projected WHIP: 1.39)

Like Marcum, Richard didn't get the respect from owners that his stats demanded. At least for Fantasy purposes, he outperformed Chad Billingsley and John Lackey, but the two more familiar names found themselves on more rosters and in more starting lineups. I see a virtual repeat of the 2010 season for Richard in 2011. He has the ground ball rate and the home park environment to maintain an ultra- low home run rate, and his track record supports his other rates as well. That means that Richard will be a top 50 starting pitcher once again.

Let the comments begin, and look for a new batch of projections here next week. If you want to offer specific projections, send them to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com and put Projections in the subject field, and entries will be compiled and published at a later date.