By the Numbers: Don't blame it on Rios
Now that we have rounded the quarter post of the regular season, we're seeing fewer small-sample flukes. With a little bit of digging, though, we can still find some odd-looking stats.
For example, after 46 games, Alex Rios is the only hitter with at least 120 at-bats who has yet to get a flyball base hit on a ball in play. That hasn't helped him to break free from the Mendoza Line's gravitational pull. Meanwhile, Michael Young is one of only seven regulars to have no more than one infield fly this season. The lack of easy outs has helped Young to the fourth-highest batting average (.348) in the majors.
More than statistical oddities, these extreme batted ball stats help to provide us with insight as to which players might be due for an upswing or a downturn. In Rios' case, his lack of flyball base hits is actually a sign that better Fantasy production is ahead of him. Young's lack of popups might look like an outlier that is due to be reversed, but it's happening within the context of a general decrease in flyball hitting that is potentially sustainable.
We'll take a deeper look at Rios, Young and 10 other batters whose stats have been shaped by BABIP rates that have been far from the major league norm of .298.
Stats are for all games played through Monday, May 23.
Who has probably been lucky?
Hunter Pence, OF, Houston: On a scalding 121-RBI pace, Pence is starting in nearly every league on CBSSports.com. A big part of Pence's Fantasy value stems from a .403 batting average with runners in scoring position, which is due to recede towards his career mark of .300. In fact, Pence's batting average, both overall and with RISP, could possibly dip below his career norms, as he is striking out at the highest rate of his career. His overall .298 batting average has been buoyed by a .361 BABIP. Pence has not had even a decent line drive rate since his rookie season, so owners should expect his batting average to trickle downward. With hits coming less often, those RBI opportunities will start drying up as well.
Colby Rasmus, OF, St. Louis: Rasmus has been a hard player to figure out, as his strikeout and home run per flyball rates seem incapable of staying in one place for very long. One trend that we can peg is Rasmus' steady improvement as a line drive hitter, which makes his .282 batting average believable at first sight, even in the absence of home run power. However, he has been popping out at a high rate this season. This could be a short-term trend, and owners can only hope that it is, as Rasmus will have a hard time maintaining his batting average while making so many easy outs.
Erick Aybar, SS, L.A. Angels: Aybar is a ground ball hitter all the way, but on those rare occasions when he does send the ball airborne, he has been striking gold this season. He is 10 for 37 on flyballs in play for a .270 average that is about twice the major league average. With normal luck, Aybar would have five fewer flyball hits, which would lower his overall batting average from .305 to .270. FYI, Aybar's career batting average is .277. Expect him to return there.
Cameron Maybin, San Diego: Did the Marlins give up on Maybin too early? At least away from PETCO Park, the 24-year-old is finally starting to hit, as he is batting .333 with four home runs in 20 road games. The power may be genuine, but whether home or away, Maybin is not enough of a line drive hitter to sustain a .342 BABIP. Playing half of his games at PETCO, Maybin can't be counted on for consistent power production, and even a decent batting average may be too much to ask for. Like the Marlins, you may find it opportune to deal the young outfielder, especially while his value is relatively high.
Who has probably been unlucky?
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado: Owners have to be happy with Tulo's power production, but they probably didn't expect to see him looking up at five shortstops, including Aybar, Asdrubal Cabrera and Starlin Castro, in the 5x5 value standings. Some of that has to do with the prowess of Cabrera and Castro, as well as some good luck for Aybar, but Tulowitzki could keep pace with them if not for his .250 batting average. Though he is not a great line drive hitter, the Rockies' shortstop has always hit well enough on ground balls to maintain a much higher batting average. With a .164 ground ball batting average, he is just not finding the holes this year. Don't get frustrated with him or sell low; just wait for him to climb back up the Fantasy ranks, which should happen anytime now.
Kelly Johnson, 2B, Arizona: With more strikeouts and a slower home run pace, Johnson's sluggish start is not just the product of bad luck, but he hasn't been as bad as his .191 batting average makes it appear. With a total of just two infield flies on the season, Johnson's flyball batting average on balls in play should be much higher than .098. Even if he doesn't reenact last season's power display, owners can expect improvement from Arizona's man at the keystone.
Alex Rios, OF, Chicago White Sox: As mentioned above, Rios has been extremely unfortunate on flyballs this season. That has not only impacted his batting average, which stands at .202, but also his Isolated Power rate. The dearth of in-the-park flyball base hits means that Rios has likely been robbed of some doubles or maybe even a triple or two. With three homers in the month of May so far, Rios' power is already starting to show after an ice-cold April. Once his luck with flyballs starts to even out, Rios will be back to where owners expected him to be when they drafted him within the first eight rounds this spring.
John Buck, C, Florida: Despite a mediocre line drive rate and a habit for striking out, Buck posted a career-high .281 batting average with Toronto last season, which he was then able to parlay into a multi-year deal with Florida. Buck has been a letdown for the Marlins and for Fantasy owners so far, and it's not wholly due to unrealistic expectations. Another batting average in the .280s was probably not going to happen, but then who knew that he was capable of shaving nearly one-third off his strikeout rate? Despite the dramatic surge in contact, Buck is hitting only .221. He deserves better than a .241 BABIP, which makes him an ideal buy-low candidate.
Who has been neither lucky nor unlucky (based on current batted ball rates)?
Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas: While it was reasonable to expect Beltre's batting average to regress this season, especially with the move away from the Fenway Doubles Factory, a 64-point drop probably looks a bit extreme. Beltre hasn't been striking out much, but subpar line drive and popup rates have washed out whatever benefits he might have reaped from more frequent contact. An explosion in Beltre's flyball rate has kept his Isolated Power rate afloat, but with the home runs have also come too many cans of corn. If he keeps this up, his batting average could very well be mired in the .250s all season long. Even with it being a down year for third basemen, Beltre ranks just eighth at his position in Rotisserie value due to his low batting average.
Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland: Thanks to a stratospheric walk rate and steady playing time, Santana has been among the top catching options in Head-to-Head, but a .207 batting average has sunk him to 18th place among catchers in Rotisserie value. This is not how things were supposed to play out for the up-and-coming backstop, but as long as he stays on pace to hit 54 popups this season, owners can't expect much improvement in his batting average. Santana is also hitting too many ground balls to emerge as an elite power threat.
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Michael Young, 1B/DH, Texas: With two of his last three seasons ending with a batting average below .290, it was too easy to consider the 34-year-old Young to be deep in the throes of decline, but he's showing that he has plenty of gas left in the tank. Though he has just two home runs on the year, Young has made up for it in Head-to-Head formats with a major league-leading 16 doubles and three triples. He has always been one of the big leagues' better line drive hitters, but with a huge reduction in his flyball rate, Young has been able to jack his BABIP up to .405. That probably won't last, but he offers enough in terms of batting average and doubles production that he is not someone to sell high.
Brett Wallace, 1B, Houston: While he didn't put up overwhelming power numbers in the upper minors, Wallace did hit for average. Still, he never posted a batting average over a full season at those levels higher than .301. So what do we make of his current .315 mark? His 22 percent strikeout rate is more in line with his minor league track record than last year's 35 percent rate, but a .386 BABIP is also largely responsible for his improvement. Wallace's success on balls in play is fully supported by a 25 percent line drive rate that ranks eighth in the major leagues. He has posted line drive rates in that neighborhood in some of his minor league stops, so Wallace could very well keep his average on the north side of .300 for the remainder of the season.
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| xFIP: Also known as Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It is an estimate of what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based on factors that a pitcher can control, such as strikeouts, walks and flyballs. xFIP is a derivative of FIP, which was developed by Tom Tango. Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
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