Updated May 31
Yes, we're about a third of the way through the season and yes, we've made our share of sub-moronic presumptions ("the Red Sox can't possibly recover from 2-10! Contract them with great and merciless fury!") along the way. But can I at least try to make a case that we shouldn't draw any real conclusions for another three or four weeks?
Fifty-five games don't constitute incontrovertible evidence. It's a taste, a tease. Over the course of a 55-game stretch in 2010 -- at the start of the season, at the end, whenever -- just about every team had a .500-or-better run. The Orioles looked like one of baseball's six or seven best teams during last season's final third. They finished 66-96.
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A starting pitcher whose numbers look great now has probably thrown seven fine games out of his 11 starts; if he muffs his next three, he's back in Arroyo territory. A hitter whose line culminates in an OPS that starts with the number 8 can be back down in the low-7s by the 10th of the month. It's early. The sample sizes are still small.
And this is a great, great thing. It's May 31 and we have no real idea who's going to win any of baseball's six divisions. The preseason favorites remain the best bets, but there are enough interlopers hanging around to keep us interested. Anything can happen. Any team can make a run.
Except the Twins. The Twins are terrible. You can stop watching the Twins now.