The long, slow dance involving Alex Rodriguez is inching along toward its inevitable conclusion, and the prediction here is:
- A-Rod will be scooping up ground balls at shortstop behind Curt Schilling in Fenway Park next season.
- Manny Ramirez will be reunited with Texas Rangers general manager John Hart (his former GM in Cleveland).
- And, subsequently, Nomar Garciaparra will be sent packing to his native Southern California, to play for whichever club offers the Boston Red Sox the most attractive package in trade -- Anaheim or Los Angeles.
This is not a done deal. It very well might not become a done deal. Maybe, after all of the cell phone minutes are used up and the options are exhausted, it will all just become one big pile of coffee-stained papers to run through the shredder.
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Alex Rodriguez's future is up in the air more than ever before. (AP) |
Never before have two players each making $20 million or more a year been traded for each other, and by the time this is finished, maybe that dubious statistic will remain intact.
But the mere fact the two ownership groups continue discussing this potential blockbuster to end all blockbusters -- as multiple sources revealed to SportsLine.com and many other media outlets Friday -- show both sides would like to find a way to get this done.
This is a trade that all three sides that matter -- Texas, Boston and A-Rod -- want to have happen. And you needn't be a business major to understand that when both buyer and seller are motivated, they usually find a way to get the deal done.
The biggest obstacle right now, besides the staggering financial ramifications that must be settled, is Texas and A-Rod are more motivated to sell than Boston is to buy. But that also appears to be a Red Sox negotiating stance that could evolve over this coming week.
The Rangers, after three consecutive last-place finishes, have learned the hard lesson that pitching, not an expensive shortstop, is the avenue to winning. A-Rod wants to win, and he knows the Rangers, as things stand now, are not close to winning.
Boston is in an insane arms race with the Yankees, and acquiring A-Rod would be about as grand a statement as the Red Sox could make. (Not to mention that it would give a team facing the free agency of Pedro Martinez, Garciaparra, Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe after the 2004 season more stability than it has now).
From Texas' perspective, while both Rodriguez and the Rangers are ready to sever the relationship, they also are both politically savvy enough to know image matters. Texas doesn't want the embarrassment of acknowledging the infamous $252 million deal was a dumb mistake. And the last thing A-Rod wants is to be labeled as a selfish player who leaps overboard at the first hint of trouble.
Divorce is a very delicate topic, and the Rangers and A-Rod will tiptoe together to ensure they come out of this as "still friends." But adding to Rodriguez's motivation to leave is his falling out with manager Buck Showalter that now has been airbrushed over, at least publicly.
The latest round of talks, according to sources, resumed over the Thanksgiving weekend in, of all places, La Jolla, Calif., where Red Sox president (and former San Diego executive) Larry Lucchino still owns a home, and where Texas owner Tom Hicks has a vacation home.
Hicks approached the Red Sox and, while the two sides spoke, it wasn't as if they spent hours hashing things out, one source close to the talks said. But a dialogue between the two sides clearly was re-established, and the fact it was re-established at the ownership level is telling.
If the deal is to happen, both Texas and Boston prefer it be delivered this week, before baseball officials descend on New Orleans for the annual winter meetings that begin Friday.
This, sources say, is for a couple of reasons: There won't be any deal if the Red Sox don't find a landing spot for Garciaparra. And if they wait until too late in the winter, there won't be one.
The best time to deal Garciaparra will be before free-agent shortstops Miguel Tejada and Kaz Matsui sign. The Angels are interested in both players; the Dodgers are pursuing Matsui. Being that Garciaparra is a New England icon, the Red Sox must be sensitive to his wishes, making the two Southern California teams the most viable options.
The situation is similar for Texas in regard to pitching. If they unload A-Rod and go after free-agent pitching -- their preference -- then they want to do so while there are still choices, before the market dries up and the top pitchers are signed.
Because of these issues, if a Boston-Texas deal is to happen, it almost certainly must happen this week. So, there is a growing sense of urgency on both sides, though the Red Sox insist they will not overpay and they will be happy to go with Garciaparra in '04.
The biggest obstacle -- and one that might not be overcome -- is what you would expect in a deal like this: money. The Rangers currently want the Red Sox not only to take A-Rod's contract ($25 million a year), they also want Boston to kick in $5 million a year toward Ramirez's contract, according to sources, for each of the next five years.
That's why the Rangers figure if they do make the deal, they'll have money to go shop for starting pitchers. If the deal is structured that way, the Rangers figure they'll save about $10 million a year -- $5 million in the annual difference between A-Rod and Manny's contracts (Ramirez earns $20 million annually) and another $5 million the Red Sox will kick in.
But this also is where things could stall.
In the end of these high-powered, delicate negotiations, the Rangers' goal is to say yes, they did trade A-Rod, essentially for pitching.
A-Rod's goal is to get to a winner while being able to look in his rear-view mirror and say, at the same time, the concession he made by waving his no-trade clause benefited the Rangers a great deal, too.
And Boston? It just wants to get to next October and point to the Yankees as road kill and have the tire tracks match their own tread. Despite Garciaparra's wild popularity throughout New England, the Red Sox could sell this move if it:
- Allows them to maneuver through the impending free agency of Martinez, Garciaparra, Lowe and Varitek next fall and emerge as contenders on the other side;
- Allows them to finally beat the hated Yankees, and/or;
- Allows them to win their first World Series since 1918.
Publicly, the Red Sox are saying and doing all the right things to get themselves some negotiating leverage.
Privately, they badly want A-Rod. And if they can negotiate the money part down in the deal -- they want no part of tagging on another $5 million a year earmarked for Texas in addition to picking up A-Rod's salary -- they'll do it in a heartbeat.
"What you may be seeing right now is a seller's heightened interest in trading a player, and a buyers' willingness to take him," one source familiar with the talks said. "You're not necessarily seeing a frenzy."
That's probably true.
But what's also true is this: In today's market, as things currently are arranged, the Red Sox are one of the few teams -- perhaps the only team -- in a position to take A-Rod.
That they're both able and willing -- more than willing, if the price is even close to being right -- should not be underestimated in these days leading up to New Orleans.
