Prospect Report: Rising fall guys

Get this seam heads: Albert Pujols was inducted into the Hall of Fame. No fooling.

OK, so it's only the Arizona Fall League Hall of Fame, but it's notable nonetheless.

Prospect Jason Bartlett will likely be the Twins' SS in 2005.(Getty Images)

The AFL is basically a six-week job interview, ala The Apprentice but without the attractive women, where prospects on the cusp of the major leagues showcase their wares -- wares that might even be hawked at the ensuing winter meetings.

For a player in the AFL, it is not only time to try to win a big-league job for 2005 but also show at least enough so the big club doesn't slot a five-year free-agent acquisition in his position. In the past 12 years, the Fall League has produced 68 players who went on to be major-league All-Stars and 10 who have won rookie of the year honors.

Pujols lived it, and then wound up generating one of the greatest rookie splashes in major-league or, more important, Fantasy Baseball history. Derek Jeter, Mike Piazza, Shawn Green, Nomar Garciaparra and Todd Helton lived it, too, and they are certainly Fantasy household names.

Now that I have your attention, Mr(s). Fantasy Leaguer ...

Yes, you -- the one spending your Thanksgiving break away from the in-laws and at the computer poring over Fantasy Baseball ...

Here are the top 10 AFLers who did the most for their 2005 Fantasy stock:

1. SS Jason Bartlett, 25, Minnesota Twins

This ranking is due as much to what the Twins didn't do, as what Bartlett did do in the AFL.

Cristian Guzman's free-agent departure opens the door for Bartlett to take over as the starting shortstop in 2005. The Twins did add free-agent middle-infielder Juan Castro, but even that is a sign they are ready to hand the job to Bartlett and let veterans Castro, Nick Punto and Augie Ojeda handle the reserve roles.

Bartlett, 25, hit .397 with a .457 on-base and .507 slugging percentage, stealing six bases in 17 AFL games. At Triple-A Rochester this season, he hit .332 in 66 games.

Bartlett (6-feet, 170 pounds) makes very good contact, boasting an A-plus strikeout-to-walk rate and having quantifiable stolen-base speed to boot. He projects to be a table-setter in the big leagues long term. In 2005, he will at least be able to provide more help to Fantasy teams than the man he replaces, Guzman: .274, 84 R, 46 RBI, 8 HRs and 10 SBs.

2. C-1B Chris Shelton, 24, Detroit Tigers

Shelton led the AFL with a .404 average (46-for-114) and was named MVP. After spending much of last season on the bench with Detroit as a Rule-5 Draft pick, hitting just .196, Shelton showed he is ready to deliver in the majors.

If there is a Pujols-like breakout candidate of the group, Shelton is it. Much like Wily Mo Pena, Shelton was a prospect stuck wallowing on a big-league bench for a year.

"Something just happened for me," Shelton told MLB.com. "I saw the ball real well here, got a lot of pitches to hit and I didn't miss them.

"Maybe I put some pressure on the Tigers to keep me around next year."

Unfortunately for him, Ivan Rodriguez blocks his catching path on the Tigers depth chart. While Detroit could make the 24-year-old backstop their No. 2 catcher, it makes more sense they would give him time at Triple-A Toledo now that the Rule-5 Draft stipulations are no longer keeping him in the majors -- catchers do take longer to develop for the most part.

Rodriguez has battled injuries in the past, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see Shelton get plenty of at-bats in the bigs. Also, he is very likely to spend some time at first base, much like Craig Wilson. We saw last year what Wilson can do for Fantasy teams as a slugger eligible at catcher.

Shelton is even better. He boasts an outstanding strikeout-to-walk rate throughout the minors and has the chance to be an OPS hog without all the wild strikeout baggage Wilson carries.

3. 3B Mark Teahen, 23, Kansas City Royals

The former Oakland Athletics prospect's career took off in 2004, ending with an AFL season that puts him in the running to be the Royals' everyday third baseman next spring. Teahen hit .385 with 23 runs and 25 RBI in 30 games.

He won the Dernell Stenson AFL Sportsmanship Award, but that has about as much importance as the price of Teahen in China. It merely means he's a hard-working and humble prospect.

The knock on Teahen has been the failure of his line-drive stroke to generate enough power to warrant being a major-league corner man. He hit just two AFL homers after smacking 14 homers and 38 doubles in 139 minor-league games. He also needs to be more disciplined at the plate -- 3.29 strikeout-to-walk ratio at Triple-A Omaha.

At 6-3 and 210 pounds, Teahen should develop enough power to avoid being labeled Sean Burroughs Jr.

Since the Royals gave up Carlos Beltran in the deal to acquire him and are a penny-pinching franchise like the Twins in the free-agent market, you can rest assured they will give him every chance to win the job this spring.

4. OF Joey Gathright, 22, Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Another case of a player's stock rising because of circumstances around him. Rocco Baldelli's ACL tear likely means Gathright will get a chance to start in the Devil Rays outfield.

Gathright might be a steal in Fantasy drafts because of just that, he can steal. He stole 15 bases in 15 games before a shoulder injury cut his AFL stint short, and that came after a minor-to-majors year in which he totaled 49 stolen bases in 111 games. Like his major-league comparison, Juan Pierre, the left-handed Gathright hits with absolutely no authority, slapping and running his way around the bases.

5. RP Huston Street, 21, Oakland Athletics

If it wasn't for his position, Street would top this list. Relief prospects just don't make much noise in Fantasy circles.

Street, an NCAA World Series MVP from Texas and first-round pick last June, was completely lights-out in the AFL (0.98 ERA, 11 hits, 19 Ks and 7 saves in 18 innings pitched). He is a big-time closing prospect who could post a 2005 Fantasy season along the lines of a Chad Cordero.

Look for him to help the Athletics in the bullpen very soon and perhaps take over Octavio Dotel's role as closer by the end of the year.

6. OF Curtis Granderson, 23, Detroit Tigers

Granderson's stock rose after an eye-opening performance at Double-A Erie last season (.303, 21 homers, 93 RBI, 14 SBs). He posted an OBP of .407 and an OPS of .922. He followed that up by hitting .321 with a .404 OBP and six steals in the AFL.

He is now rated the Tigers' No. 1 prospect by Baseball America and is a candidate to become the big-league club's center fielder out of spring training. If he does that, definitely jump on him as a sleeper pick for AL rookie of the year.

The guess here is, though, he needs at least a few months at Triple-A in 2005.

7. RP Jesse Crain, 23, Minnesota Twins

Another pitcher who would be higher on this list if not for his position. Also, Crain has already made a big-league splash in 2005, so his nice numbers in the AFL are really just icing on the cake (2.08 ERA, 10 hits, 14 Ks in 13 innings).

Crain will return as a top arm in the Twins bullpen next season, but his Fantasy value is limited to WHIP and ERA as a middle reliever. If something happens to incumbent closer Joe Nathan, who had a breakout year himself in 2004, Crain would be a sweet sleeper for saves.

8. SP J.D. Durbin, 22, Minnesota Twins

He is an outstanding pitching prospect, but rookie pitchers just don't make great Fantasy players.

"The Real Deal" has the moniker for a reason, but it's not for anything he did in the AFL. He didn't embarrass himself, but his numbers were so-so in terms of Fantasy (4.56 ERA, 21 hits, 29 strikeouts in 25 2/3 innings). Those numbers were very similar to what he posted in his move up to Triple-A midseason (4.54, 49 hits, 38 Ks in 35 2/3 innings).

Durbin very well could be in the Twins' rotation out of spring, but his so-so numbers make him a risky pick in Fantasy leagues. Pitching in the big leagues takes more art than just talent, so consider Durbin in long-term keeper leagues.

9. OF Conor Jackson, 22, Arizona Diamondbacks

The other half of the Baby Backs prospect duo with Carlos Quentin. If not for Quentin's injury, this slot might not have gone to Jackson. Quentin is perhaps the bigger Fantasy prospect.

But Jackson, 22, showed scouts he is not far behind his counterpart in major-league readiness. He tied with Dodgers prospect Jason Repko with an AFL-leading eight homers, hitting a healthy .324 with a .433 on-base percentage and a .586 SLUG.

Since he has had fewer than 200 games in the minors after being a 2003 first-round pick, Jackson likely needs to be sent to Triple-A to begin 2005. He is a great keeper option, though, and a sleeper for NL rookie of the year if the D-Backs decide to go full-tilt with their youth movement.

10. OF Jeremy Hermida, 20, Florida Marlins

Perhaps the Marlins' best prospect, Hermida's minor-league numbers (.297 average, 10 homers, 50 RBI in 97 games at Class-A Jupiter) won't wow you ... yet.

He tore up the Arizona Fall League, though, leading the Phoenix Desert Dogs to the title. His seven homers in 35 games, good for second in the AFL, likely earned him a long look this spring. He is a top-notch keeper prospect but too raw to be given a big-league job for opening day.

AFL's best long-term Fantasy prospects by position:

Catcher
Ryan Garko (Indians): He might even surprise us this year.

First base
James Loney (Dodgers): A year or two away.

Second base
Rickie Weeks (Brewers): Needs to show more in minors.

Third base
Mark Teahen (Royals): Solid but not spectacular long term.

Shortstop
Omar Quintanilla (Athletics): Bobby Crosby blocks him.

Left field
Delmon Young (Devil Rays): Perhaps the best prospect in baseball.

Center field
Curtis Granderson (Tigers): Will his future be now?

Right field
Jeremy Hermida (Marlins): Think Shawn Green long term.

RH starting pitcher
J.D. Durbin (Twins): Likely Triple-A, then midseason call-up.

LH starting pitcher
Jeff Housman (Brewers): Stock skyrocketed in AFL.

RH reliever
Huston Street (Athletics): As dominant a young arm as there is.

LH reliever
Russ Rohlicek (Cubs): Intriguing but not close right now.

Bleacher Banter

Bill Van Duyne, Avondale, Ariz.: I am in a 5x5 keeper league, $260 cap, and trying to decide whether to keep Rick Ankiel ($8) for next year. I have a strong staff whether I keep him or not. Just not sure what his future is in St. Louis. Can you help?

B.B.: Ankiel is definitely on his way back to the Fantasy radar, but you can get him back well below the price you have him at now. He is pitching in the Puerto Rican Winter League, giving up three hits in four scoreless innings last week in his first start. He is unlikely to be handed a rotation spot out of spring training, but he might eventually assume one in 2005.

Brent Braun: I'm in a 10-team Dynasty league with a roster consisting of: 3 C, 3 1B, 3 2B, 3 SS, 3 3B, 9 OF, 15 SP, 3 CP and a minor-league roster of 15 any-position players. I'm rebuilding my entire team and was wondering which of these players are worth keeping for the future: Ryan Harvey, Merkin Valdez, Justin Duchscherer, Nelson Figueroa, Joel Hanrahan, Elizardo Ramirez, Fausto Carmona, Pedro Liriano, Royce Ring, Pablo Ozuna, Paul Maholm and Ryan Doumit?

B.B.: Here are my two cents on these prospects:

Harvey
Decent Mets OPS OF prospect, but at least two years away.

Valdez
Excellent arm, and a future closer candidate for the Giants.

Duchscherer
Solid makeup, but only keeper-worthy if he returns to being a starter.

Figueroa
Worthless ex-prospect. Dump him. The Pirates did.

Hanrahan
A top Dodgers pitching prospect who needs more Triple-A time.

Ramirez
Intriguing prospect who might help the Reds in 2005.

Carmona
A top Indians pitching prospect who will begin 2005 in Triple-A.

Liriano
Solid arm who will likely find time in Milwaukee in 2005.

Ring
His stock has dropped significantly. He projects as a middle reliever now.

Ozuna
Now an ex-prospect. Dump him. Nothing more than a major-league reserve.

Maholm
Excellent pitching prospect, but at least two years away.

Doumit
Definite keeper as the Pirates' catcher of the future.

You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball questions to bleacher@commissioner.com. Be sure to put Attn: Bleacher Banter in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Please be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.