Oh, yes, it's that time again: The Dreaded Picks

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Uno, dos, tres, catorce!

I can hear the office hounding me now for the annual soothsaying, muckraking, head-aching, stomach-quaking, side-splitting, ever-humiliating, nerve-wracking predictions column. And yet ...

Hello, Hello
Hola!
I'm at a place called Vertigo (Donde esta?)
It's everything I wish I didn't know. ...

Captain Derek Jeter and the Yankees might finally end their 'long' World Series drought. (AP)

Because sometimes you can know too much. Or think you know too much. And come predictions time, this information overload is more dangerous than a Farrah Fawcett reality show.

Happens every spring. Vertigo? You, too? No, U2. But heck yes. Beginning just days before the annual predictions column, I suddenly develop this inner ear thing that makes me dizzy, dizzy, dizzy, like everything is whirling around until ...

Lights go down
It's dark
The jungle is your head
Can't rule your heart
A feeling is so much stronger
Than a thought

So enter, say, the Oakland Athletics. Conventional thinking is that general manager Billy Beane stripped them of two of their Big Three starters, and as a result, this could be their roughest season since at least 1999. But they also have their strongest bullpen in years and some terrific young talent that will become name players soon enough, and the feeling is they have enough to stay in the race in what will be baseball's most competitive division, the AL West.

And as Baseball 2005 comes roaring toward our front door like a congressional subpoena, that's only a start. Looking to get a leg up with your Fantasy teams, win a few bar bets, perhaps impress the blond baseball fan who lives down the street or sits across from you in homeroom?

You're in the right place. I cannot guarantee that each of the following predictions will turn out just so -- if I could do that, hey, I'd be sitting in the middle of Times Square instead of behind a laptop. And George Steinbrenner and Billy Crystal would be approaching, asking if they could have some of my mountains of cash.

What I can guarantee is that I'll hit on more than you think, we'll have some fun and, come the last week of the season, as I do every year, I'll dig these out and we'll review 'em together. Now where else do you get that promise?

So sharpen your pencils and get your '05 scorecards ready. I'm at a place called Vertigo ...

American League

East: 1. New York Yankees, 2. Boston, 3. Baltimore, 4. Toronto, 5. Tampa Bay.

We're going to assume here that the New York Yankees are stocked up on enough Ben-Gay and ice to get old coots Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown, Mike Mussina, Bernie Williams and Tino Martinez through the season. That happens, it's simple: Nobody else in the division -- and few others in baseball -- will be able to match the pitching manager Joe Torre will run out there night after night. Mix in Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and the usual cast of pricey All-Stars, along with the fact that the Yankees haven't won a World Series since the turn of the century, and look out.

Speaking of the Fall Classic, have we really come to the point where defending world champion Boston will roll out David Wells on opening day? Hey, more power to Wells for remaining a serious player with one of the most incredible arms of our time -- that arm will allow him to pitch into his 60s, no doubt, if his body doesn't betray him first. Regardless, Matt Clement and Wade Miller are the keys to Boston's season. If they don't step up, the Red Sox don't have enough pitching. If they do, Johnny Damon could be writing a sequel to Idiot this time next year.

The biggest question in Baltimore is whether Sidney Ponson will have more W's or fistfights in his statistical line come September. Otherwise, the Orioles are better than people think. The Blue Jays and Devil Rays, aside from the fact that they share very similar (and unattractive) logos, have neither enough pitching nor enough pop in their lineups.

Central: 1. Minnesota, 2. Cleveland, 3. Detroit, 4. Chicago White Sox, 5. Kansas City.

Minnesota brings back its first 10 pitchers from last season's playoff staff -- one that led the AL in ERA. Johan Santana and Brad Radke are a terrific 1-2 punch. The Twins haven't had one player hit 30 or more homers since 1987 -- a feat that suggests the Twins never got the memo most others saw that steroids suddenly were available on their local grocery shelves next to the Pop-Tarts. The biggest thing here is: Can Jason Bartlett handle shortstop and will Michael Cuddyer be OK at third?

For more on Cleveland, see below under the "Biggest Surprise" category. The Indians are coming fast. Detroit will remain in the wild-card race -- and, probably, the division race -- if Magglio Ordonez stays on the field and Jeremy Bonderman continues his ascension to staff ace status. The White Sox always underachieve, though they have a fascinating new sleek look, depending on the speed of outfielder Scott Podsednik and second baseman Tadahito Iguchi, among other things, and moving away from their power game of past years. And Kansas City, whew, without the will-they-trade-Carlos-Beltran? story line this summer, baseball might need to send out a search party for the Royals by July.

West: 1. Los Angeles/Superior Court Angels, 2. Oakland, 3. Seattle, 4. Texas.

Top to bottom, this is going to be the most competitive division in the game. The only other that could rival it is the NL Central. Anaheim is loaded and is the one team in baseball that might join the Yankees and Boston in the game's superpower department. Adding Steve Finley to Garrett Anderson and Vladimir Guerrero gives the Angels the game's best outfield. Shortstop Orlando Cabrera is an upgrade, and closer Frankie Rodriguez is ready to star.

Don't be fooled by Oakland trading Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder; the A's will be better than you think. Rich Harden was their best pitcher in the second half of last season. Danny Haren and Joe Blanton are comers. The addition of catcher Jason Kendall to third baseman Eric Chavez and center fielder Mark Kotsay is huge. And the Athletics have a deep bullpen built to pitch lots of innings -- innings that will likely be available because the rotation is young enough it won't go deep into games the way Mulder and Hudson did. So enter Juan Cruz, Kiko Calero and future closer Huston Street to closer Octavio Dotel and sit back and marvel.

Seattle could become the most improved team in the AL this year by adding Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson. The thing with the Mariners is, their rotation -- Jamie Moyer, Joel Pineiro, Gil Meche, Ryan Franklin and whoever wins the No. 5 job -- can't be as bad as it was last year. Texas', meanwhile, can't be as good as it was last year. The Rangers didn't add anybody of note to their rotation, Kenny Rogers winning 18 games again is hard to imagine, and Chan Ho Park looks like a piece of bread that was left in the toaster too long.

Wild card: Boston.

You know it's going to come down to a race between the Red Sox and Yankees. You just know it.

Champion: New York Yankees.

Too much pitching, too many All-Stars, too much Derek Jeter, too much George, too much money and, especially, too much embarrassment from the Red Sox squeezing them in four in a row last October. Somebody's got to pay.

MVP: Gary Sheffield, Yankees.

Sheffield was not a happy camper this spring. Reason? Turns out he's sensitive -- he is carrying deep scars from last year's MVP vote that turned late in favor of the Angels' Guerrero. Sheffield thinks he should have won and will be a man possessed this summer, and while Guerrero and Boston's Manny Ramirez again will be right there in the race, nobody in the game punishes a baseball with vicious swings like Sheffield, and it's his year to win it.

Cy Young: Johan Santana, Minnesota.

The new generation started last season. Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson, it's time to start making way for fresh young faces like Santana. This guy was scary good in going 13-0 with a 1.21 ERA after the All-Star break last year.

Rookie of the year: Brandon McCarthy, Chicago White Sox.

There is a whole lot of buzz around third baseman Dallas McPherson of the Angels and pitcher Huston Street in Oakland, and rightfully so. McCarthy? He isn't even the rookie of the year favorite on his own team -- second baseman Iguchi is -- and he will open the season in the minors. But here's the thinking: McCarthy is really, really good, he is really, really polished -- and no way both Jose Contreras and Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez stay in the White Sox rotation. McCarthy gets his chance early, and he runs with it.

Manager of the year: Ron Gardenhire, Minnesota.

Nobody does a better job of breaking in young players and moving them along through the talented Twins lineup.

Home run champ: Manny Ramirez, Boston.

See Manny hit the ball. See Manny hit the ball far. See Manny absolutely, positively crush the ball. It is one of baseball's treats.

Comeback player: Paul Byrd, Anaheim.

He allowed three runs or fewer in 15 of 19 starts in Atlanta last season following elbow ligament reconstruction surgery in 2003. With the run support he'll get in the Angels lineup, the guy could be a 20-game winner.

Surprise player: Daniel Cabrera, Baltimore.

He showed last June what he could do, tossing up a 2.83 ERA and holding opponents to a .204 batting average during the month following his recall from Double-A. He struggled more often than not in the second half when he had difficulty throwing his fastball for strikes, but he still finished 12-8 with a 5.00 ERA. Orioles manager Lee Mazzilli liked the way he was throwing this spring. If this 6-foot-7, 230-pounder can command his fastball and keep throwing his big, breaking curve, he will be a guy to watch.

Disappointment: Jaret Wright, Yankees.

Two years ago, he couldn't even pitch in San Diego's bullpen. Yes, he became more of a pitcher than simply a flamethrower in Atlanta last season, but two things are wrong now. He's no longer with Braves pitching coach Leo Mazzone, and he's in the American League, land of the DH, where there are no easy outs. Pitchers must face nine solid hitters on most nights, rather than seven or eight, and lots will be expected of Wright in New York.

National League

East: 1. Atlanta, 2. Florida, 3. New York Mets, 4. Philadelphia, 5. Washington.

This is the easiest part of the annual predictions column: Just keep handing Atlanta another division title until the Braves prove they can't do it anymore. Seriously, what really happened is, we learned our lesson from last year when we picked the Braves to finish fourth. As Homer Simpson would say, "Doh!" John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, Mike Hampton, John Thomson and Horacio Ramirez make up the best rotation going in the NL, and Danny Kolb will handle the closer role beautifully.

It won't be easy for the Braves, though. Florida has the best-balanced lineup in the league. In Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo, the Marlins have a couple of terrific on-base guys who can run. The meat of the order -- Mike Lowell, Carlos Delgado, Miguel Cabrera -- is excellent. Paul LoDuca is about a 90 percent upgrade behind the plate over last year, when the Marlins were reeling from the loss of Ivan Rodriguez.

The Mets will be better, and Pedro Martinez undoubtedly is on a mission to show Boston what it will be missing. He always pitches better with a chip on his shoulder. Philadelphia could go either way, though the Phillies have proved over the past few seasons that they just don't have the players it takes to win. Washington -- well, let's update the old expression to first in war, first in peace and last in the National League.

Central: 1. St. Louis, 2. Cincinnati, 3. Chicago Cubs, 4. Houston, 5. Milwaukee, 6. Pittsburgh.

Will Mulder pitch as he did up until the second half of last season, or was that the beginning of a mysterious decline in his career? The answer to that question will determine how far the Cardinals will go -- and come on! Mulder is only 27! He's not even close to losing his ace status! Their lineup is terrific -- Albert Pujols soon will ascend to Barry Bonds' throne as the best everyday player around. Matt Morris pitched well enough this spring to bring summer dreams. Let's see what Yadier Molina does behind the plate.

Cincinnati -- more on the Reds later in the surprise team section. The Cubs again this spring behaved like a disabled list waiting to happen. Unless Kerry Wood, Mark Prior and Nomar Garciaparra shake the injury-prone tags sooner rather than later, the momentum the Cubs had two years ago will be all but sapped for good. Houston's outfield is a mess -- especially early without Lance Berkman -- and Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio are getting too old to carry the 'Stros. The Brewers are going to be for real in the very near future -- another two years, and we'll all be watching Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks and J.J. Hardy flowering and Ben Sheets pitching the Brewers to rare heights. Pittsburgh, well, aside from Jason Bay and Oliver Perez, at least the Pirates can say they're playing host to the All-Star Game in 2006.

West: 1. San Diego, 2. San Francisco, 3. Arizona, 4. Los Angeles, 5. Colorado.

Ludicrous? Perhaps, if Barry Bonds returns sooner rather than later. But this division is going to be competitive all season. The Padres have Jake Peavy, Brian Lawrence, Adam Eaton and Woody Williams lined up for pitcher-friendly Petco Park, and the acquisition of Tim Redding from Houston was smart. San Diego has a leadoff hitter now in Dave Roberts, which adds a needed dimension and moves Sean Burroughs down the lineup, where he should be. Can Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko find love and happiness in Petco? Stay tuned.

The Giants with Bonds and the Giants without Bonds are two completely different stories. Look for him to return in May. But will he be as dangerous following two knee surgeries? Or will he need to finish his career as a DH in the AL? Legitimate questions. One thing is clear: San Francisco -- with Marquis Grissom, Omar Vizquel, Mike Matheny, Moises Alou and J.T. Snow -- is an ancient team that is built to coincide with the window of time Bonds has left. Right now there is a crack in the window frame, but Giants GM Brian Sabean is great with the superglue.

Arizona will be much better, and Shawn Green and Troy Glaus give the Diamondbacks an exciting new dimension in the field. Russ Ortiz and Javier Vazquez don't make up for one Randy Johnson, but they ain't a bad 1-2 combo. It's going to be highly intriguing to see whether the Dodgers infield can follow the bouncing ball behind sinkerballers Derek Lowe, Jeff Weaver, Odalis Perez and Scott Erickson (don't expect too much). And in Colorado, they're now running a day-care center. Whatever.

Wild card: Florida.

The focus a couple of paragraphs earlier was on the balanced lineup. What I saved until now was mention of an improved rotation with Al Leiter -- he gives Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis and A.J. Burnett an experienced veteran to lean on -- and a new closer, Guillermo Mota, who can handle the job.

Champion: Atlanta.

The corner outfielders -- Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi -- could be slower than maple syrup and more breakable than peanut brittle, but if the Braves can get past that -- and never underestimate GM John Schuerholz -- well, see you in late October.

MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis.

The most feared slugger in the NL ... until Bonds returns.

Cy Young: Tim Hudson, Atlanta.

The biggest thing holding Hudson back from a couple of awards so far is his chronic hip problem. We'll see whether he can solve that in Atlanta. But he has signed a new multiyear contract, he's surrounded by Mazzone, manager Bobby Cox, Smoltz and some of the most brilliant pitching minds in the business, and he has the talent. Hudson and Atlanta could be a very special combo.

Rookie of the year: Garrett Atkins, Colorado.

Odds are pretty good that the rookie award this year will come from Colorado's Romper Room club. Atkins is the best bet: He won the Pacific Coast League batting title last season and drives the ball with authority. He's a gap hitter, not a power hitter, and his defense might be rocky in the beginning. The guy playing immediately to his left, Rockies shortstop Clint Barmes, will be a candidate, too. Barmes went to Larry Bird's school, Indiana State.

Manager of the year: Dave Miley, Cincinnati.

The Reds have the tools to be a very talented team -- the rotation is improved and their lineup is tough -- and if Cincinnati does open some eyes, the answer to the question of who's managing Cincinnati will stop being, "Some young guy ... Miles, Mile, Miley, something like that."

Home run champ: Albert Pujols, St. Louis.

See MVP, NL.

Comeback player: Andy Pettitte, Houston.

The man made just 15 starts last season, darn few of them pain-free at that. He had surgery, he has had a reasonably good spring and he is determined to live up to the big free-agent contract he signed two winters ago. All the ingredients are there for Pettitte to come back strong. Too bad Carlos Beltran and Jeff Kent aren't still around. With a healthy Pettitte, Houston wouldn't have finished one victory short of the World Series.

Surprise: Jose Reyes, New York Mets.

New York had such difficulty keeping Reyes healthy last summer that the Mets wound up firing their medical staff. Reyes is only 21, and the promising thing is the Mets have shifted him back to shortstop -- where he should have stayed a year ago. He's so young, the hamstring and back problems from a year ago should be a thing of the past. Should be. If they are, Reyes will quickly ascend into one of the NL's better talents.

Disappointment: Roger Clemens, Houston.

This could be sheer craziness, because Clemens works so hard you figure he might just pitch longer than Satchel Paige did. But the hamstring tweak he suffered this spring could be a harbinger of things to come. And bottom line is, he's 42 -- he simply can't go 18-4 with a 2.98 ERA and win another Cy Young award in 2005. Can he?

World champion: Yankees over Braves.

Remember the Kevin Costner what-I-believe-in speech in Bull Durham? "I believe in the soul ... the small of a woman's back ... the hangin' curveball ... high fiber ... good scotch ... that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap. ..." Well, after picking the Yankees to win every year in the late '90s through 2001, I normally believe in picking anybody but the Yankees to win now.

Except ... the Yankees haven't been to the Fall Classic since 2003, when they lost to Florida. Quite simply, they're loaded and they're due. Atlanta has the pitching, and I'm assuming the Braves will figure out some combination in the outfield other than Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi flanking the always sensational Andruw Jones.

So for all who pull against the Yankees ... sorry. But I still believe that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone, and I believe there ought to be a Constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. For whatever that's worth.

First player traded: Bobby Higginson, Detroit.

The Tigers are looking high and low to deal him, with Rondell White playing left, Craig Monroe center and Magglio Ordonez right. They're going to have to eat a bunch of his money, because Higginson lost his marketability back when they actually were playing hockey, too, in Detroit, but it's clear his time in Motown has passed.

First manager fired: Lloyd McClendon, Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are outmanned in the NL Central and McClendon is in the final year of his contract. Bad combination.

Surprising teams: Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit.

In Eric Milton, Ramon Ortiz and Paul Wilson, the Reds at least have a representative pitching staff -- something they haven't had to back their fearsome lineup featuring Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, Ken Griffey Jr. and Sean Casey. Now, if those guys can stay on the field, they've got something.

In Kevin Millwood, C.C. Sabathia, Jake Westbrook and Cliff Lee, the Indians have a very solid rotation to back a terrific core of young players such as Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, Jhonny Peralta, Coco Crisp, Casey Blake and Ben Broussard. Plus, they've got Aaron Boone for the season.

In Magglio Ordonez, the Tigers have another blue-chipper to join Pudge Rodriguez and Carlos Guillen and a host of hopeful young pitchers -- Jeremy Bonderman, Mike Maroth, Nate Robertson and Wil Ledezma -- and new closer Troy Percival.

Disappointing team: Los Angeles Dodgers.

The defense is worse, the offense lacks Adrian Beltre and Shawn Green, closer Eric Gagne showed signs a year ago that his superhuman run is over and Milton Bradley, like Mt. St. Helens, could blow anytime.

Player most likely to start his own blog: Curt Schilling, Boston.

You've heard of the player/manager? If anybody is wacky enough to become player/sportswriter in the same season, it's Schilling.

It was right smack during the World Series last October that Schilling, in an e-mail Q and A interview with the always-entertaining Boston Dirt Dogs website, wrote:

"I think Scott Miller wrote that I was trying to draw attention to my ankle (with the bloody sock) by tying my shoes all the time in Game 1, which was false, I was trying to tie my right shoe because it came untied about 10 times and every time I looked up the Yanks were running around the bases. So I was retying my shoe and at the same time trying to take a moment to figure out how the hell I was going to get someone out."

Give Schilling high marks for his honesty and sense of humor. And Curt, if you'd like to write some baseball in '05, I'll be happy to provide space for your commentary.

Because what I do know is, if Schilling, the Red Sox and the Yankees pick up where they left off in October, there is going to be quite a tale to tell in '05.