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Offensive numbers were down in April, and you know what that means.
All of the amateur Joe Hardys accumulate the evidence -- fewer home runs, fewer runs scored, lower slugging percentages, a handful of sluggers who are noticeably less burly -- and conclude that, yes, now that steroid testing is in place, lots of guys have stopped taking Vitamin S and pitchers again have a chance.
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| Travis Hafner has just three home runs through 25 games this season. (Getty Images) |
"There are a lot of pitchers whose speeds are down this year, too," one National League executive noted the other day.
And Minnesota reliever Juan Rincon this week became the first pitcher of note to fail his test.
We wondered last winter what 2005 would look like, in the wake of the BALCO bombshells and following the historic testing agreement between players and owners.
So far, it looks a lot like the chemistry lab in my old all-boys Catholic high school -- where guys passed the time mixing strange substances in small beakers over a small burner to see which ones would produce the biggest flames. Nobody was quite sure of what he was doing, or where it would lead.
"That's the speculation, that guys are off of it," San Diego manager Bruce Bochy says. "I don't know how you determine whether they were (on steroids) or not. But you just look at the numbers and guys are having down years.
"That's what we're going to be dealing with, I think, if the numbers go down."
What we know is this: According to the Elias Sports Bureau, numbers in these four telling offensive categories were down in April 2005 from April 2004:
Home runs per game: 1.89 in '05, 2.17 in '04.
Runs per game:
9.14 in '05, 9.83 in '04.
Slugging percentage: .409 in '05, .427 in
'04.
Batting average: .261 in '05, .268 in '04.
While those are not precipitous drops, the facts are, April numbers in those categories in '05 were at their lowest since the turn of the century -- way back before 2000.
That has led to a lot of hasty conclusions.
