Welcome, welcome to the St. Louis Cardinals/Houston Astros Invitational division. Got a problem with that? Go argue somewhere else.
Aside from 2003, when the Chicago Cubs stunned everyone by winning the division, the title here has gone to either the Cardinals or Astros every year since 1996. The Cardinals have won five division crowns in that time, the Astros four.
St. Louis ran away with the Central last summer, winning by 11 1/2 games over Houston -- big surprise that they would go one-two -- and now here we go again, right toward the dead of winter, with everyone rearranging their pieces to see whether 2006 will be the year someone makes it past St. Louis or Houston ...
Make every effort to sign free-agent shortstop Rafael Furcal. Even if it means giving him stock in Murphy's Bleachers across the street from Wrigley Field. The Cubs need a shortstop, they need a leadoff man ... hey, Furcal can fill BOTH needs.
Make a strong run at free-agent center fielder Johnny Damon. Corey Patterson is not the answer. He has been given every opportunity. He still hasn't stepped up consistently. About the time the Cubs demoted him to Triple-A Iowa last summer was the time the writing was on the wall that Patterson will be traded just as soon as the Cubs can get more than a bag of balls.
Supplement the roster with some on-base guys. The Cubs finished 11th in the NL in on-base percentage last year. The way the wind blows out in Wrigley Field, many days all they need to do is get runners aboard and the ball will fly itself out of the ballpark. Florida center fielder Juan Pierre would be a perfect addition if Damon isn't the guy.
Don't
Settle for Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano and Greg Maddux in the rotation. Go get a solid, dependable starter who can fit in the bottom of the rotation. Because Prior and Wood are good for one disabled list appearance each, minimum.
Go into the season without layering more outfielders onto the roster. It's one thing to plan on Matt Murton playing left field every day, it's quite another not to have a viable alternative in the event that he flounders.
Ignore the fundamentals. The Cubs were a bad baserunning team last season. They too often made things an adventure in the field. There was not enough talent to overcome the mistakes they made. At least some of the talk surrounding Dusty Baker's contract status (he's entering his final year) will be diffused if the Cubs don't look so sloppy in these areas.
Key to offseason
All of this pitching is not going to last forever. Wood is coming off of surgery, and Prior is so fragile. The Cubs need to make sure those two enter spring training healthy -- and then stay healthy -- and they must add a leadoff hitter and a power bat. This will not be an easy winter, but GM Jim Hendry has proven before that he is up to the task.
Find another starting pitcher and explore trading Eric Milton. The Reds need pitching, pitching, pitching, and the Milton experiment last year went badly awry. What the Reds should have learned is that a flyball pitcher is a nightmare in their home park, which yields far too many home runs. Free agent Matt Morris would be a terrific fit, but he's almost certainly going to be too expensive.
Trade from your surplus of outfielders to acquire a starting pitcher if necessary. Wily Mo Pena, Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns and Ken Griffey Jr. = one more outfielder than the number of spots on the field. Plus, being that there is no DH in the NL and all ... did we mention the thing about adding a starting pitcher? The Reds ranked last in the NL with a 5.15 ERA last year.
Keep first baseman Sean Casey. Maybe there will be a temptation to trade him. Don't. Every organization should have one Sean Casey. The fans love him, he's a terrific clubhouse presence and the guy can hit.
Don't
Trade or sign any more flyball pitchers. Period. Exclamation mark.
Blow it with your arbitration-eligible players. The Reds have eight, and with a payroll that will remain at $60 million, something is going to have to give. Most likely, they're going to have to deal one or two of those arbitration guys -- Dunn, Kearns, somebody like that.
Allow Ryan Freel to do anything other than work out, get in shape and take out extra health insurance this winter. The guy is a terrific player, but he's always hurt. The Reds and Freel need to figure out a plan to keep the guy on the field.
Key to offseason
The Reds finished 27 games behind first-place St. Louis last summer because they did not have nearly enough pitching. In addition to the poor ERA, their staff ranked last in the NL with just two complete games. Right now, Aaron Harang is No. 1 on the rotation depth chart. That must look vastly different come spring training.
Expand the payroll. It's a must, or the Astros are going to slowly start a downhill descent. They have $64 million committed to just five players: Lance Berkman, Jeff Bagwell, Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt and Craig Biggio. If Drayton McLane keeps Houston's payroll in the mid-$70 millions, the Astros are going to have some serious cutting to do.
Re-sign free-agent catcher Brad Ausmus. See? This is why the payroll is going to cause problems if it doesn't increase. Ausmus is one of the best receivers in the game, and he rose to the occasion with his bat during the postseason. He is a key to this team.
Add a bat, probably in the outfield. Remember how toothless the Astros were against the White Sox in the World Series? Remember how they went 0-for-17 with runners in scoring position over the final 15 innings of the World Series? They should, too.
Don't
Overpay Roger Clemens. Yes, he's an icon and yes, he's still one of the best right-handers in the game. But he's 43, his legs betrayed him in September and October and, besides, where else is he going to go if you don't kick in every last penny he and his agents request? Back to New York and miss his son's high school baseball and football games?
Allow third baseman Morgan Ensberg to go to arbitration. Sign him to a multiyear deal before it even gets to that point. That way, the Astros have a hand in controlling his salary and they guarantee that a solid guy will remain with the club.
Be afraid to convince Ensberg to stick with one batting stance in 2006, rather than sitting back and watching him make 1,000 adjustments for his next at-bat every single time he fails to succeed in the box.
Key to offseason
It's not too difficult. The Astros absolutely have to find a hitter, any hitter, likely someone who plays first base or the outfield. Their pitching is solid -- better if Clemens comes back -- and they are one of the few teams with no worries in the ninth inning with closer Brad Lidge at hand (though they might want to keep him away from watching any postseason highlights this winter, especially ones involving Albert Pujols and Geoff Blum).
Restock the bullpen. They got all they were going to get from Julio Santana last year, and they're not bringing him back. Derrick Turnbow's trick will be to follow up a solid debut season of closing with another. Milwaukee needs bullpen depth, and it is GM Doug Melvin's top priority this winter.
Add another starting pitcher, if possible. Though, as usual, pitching will be tough to come by and it isn't like Milwaukee has the dough to pursue top free agents such as A.J. Burnett or Kevin Millwood. If they could position themselves to trade for somebody like Eric Milton -- who would fit better in Miller Park than in Cincinnati -- they will do it.
Keep close watch on prospects Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy and Prince Fielder. Do not let them do anything that could even bring them close to injury. After Milwaukee finished .500 this season for the first time since 1992, it's full-steam ahead on the improvement program.
Don't
Give away Lyle Overbay. It's clear Fielder is the first baseman of the future. Right now, Melvin is not interested in a haul of prospects for the valuable Overbay. He prefers getting a legitimate major leaguer in return, and that is a good, sound philosophy.
Allow any Ben Sheets headache to go unchecked. The last thing the Brewers need is for their ace to develop another sinus infection that sidelines him.
Even think about asking Hall of Famer Robin Yount to rejoin the active roster. Yes, he's going to look awfully good again in a Milwaukee uniform for the first time since he retired as a player, but he is a coach, and if you're tempted to get all sentimental again, don't.
Key to offseason
Tough to imagine the Brewers overtaking the Cardinals and Astros -- the two teams who finished ahead of them in '05 -- in one winter, but this is a team that finally has things going in the right direction. There are serviceable major-league parts and lots of good prospects. Picking up an extra outfielder at some point would be nice so that Ironmen Geoff Jenkins, Carlos Lee and Brady Clark don't burn out.
Open that wallet wisely, because the payroll will rest at about $60 million for new manager Jim Tracy after the Pirates opened 2005 in the low $30 millions. The needs are plenty, but they start with big hitters at the corner infield spots and perhaps in the outfield, and with some bullpen help.
Investigate trading Mark Redman or Kip Wells in order to get some offensive help. The Pirates are looking to deal Redman, anyway. They're one of the few teams with a surplus of left-handers -- Redman, Zach Duke, Oliver Perez, Dave Williams, Sean Burnett (who will be returning from Tommy John ligament transfer surgery) and Paul Maholm.
Find a closer. Jose Mesa faltered toward season's end and is a free agent.
Don't
Forget to introduce everyone to new manager Tracy. He has developed a reputation as a solid manager who usually squeezes more out of his roster than expected. That will be a big chore with the Pirates, but once he and new pitching coach Jim Colborn learn their personnel, look out.
Be afraid to add a few players who specialize in on-base percentage while you're looking for a guy or two who can put the ball over the wall. The Pirates last year ranked 12th in the NL in on-base percentage, 12th in home runs and 14th in the NL in runs scored.
Recklessly use the increased payroll to award lavish contracts to Derek Bell, Kevin Young and Pat Meares (sorry, couldn't resist).
Key to offseason
Pittsburgh is at least a couple of years away, but there are signs of progress. Part of the key will be to see how pitchers Sean Burnett and John Van Benschoten -- two one-time top prospects -- come back from injuries. Those two can add key depth to Pittsburgh's pitching inventory, and then if the Pirates can add some offense ... Yeah, yeah, Pirates fans have heard all of this before. It's time to start seeing results.
Add an outfielder, preferably a younger outfielder because Larry Walker retired and Reggie Sanders is 37 (and a free agent) and all that wear and tear over a hot summer is easier on younger legs. But if the Cardinals go younger by adding free agent Brian Giles, just a kid of 34, that will work just fine.
Make every effort to bring back Matt Morris. He's a free agent and could be priced out of St. Louis' range, but with Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter and lefty Mark Mulder aboard, Morris gives St. Louis one of the best No. 3 starters around.
Whatever it takes to get Scott Rolen healthy and keep him healthy. No way that shoulder should have kept him out as long as it did last summer, and the Cardinals cannot allow something like that to happen again.
Don't
Let that Gold Glove defense slip. St. Louis has been outstanding with the gloves the past few seasons, but second baseman Mark Grudzielanek is a free agent and there is no guarantee he will be back. Center fielder Jim Edmonds, catcher Yadier Molina and shortstop David Eckstein combined to give the Cards good up-the-middle defense, but what they do at second base this winter will be key.
Take personally the complaints from lefty reliever Ray King about not being used enough in the postseason. The Stocky One remains a key piece to use against lefty hitters in the late innings even if his mouth became bigger than his stomach for a time in October.
Allow any members of the front office staff or anybody else associated with the team to be hit by falling pieces of Busch Stadium as the wrecking ball does its job and gets the old out of the way so the Cardinals can open the new joint in 2006.
Key to offseason
GM Walt Jocketty is a master at laying in the weeds and remaining quiet before striking with just the right move at just the right time. He did it last winter when Edgar Renteria signed with Boston, scooping up Eckstein. He needs to work through his outfield dilemma and make sure to add another starter to join Carpenter, Mulder, Jeff Suppan and Jason Marquis. But overall, the Cardinals had the best record in the NL last season and will come back strong again in '06 -- as should be expected of any team that boasts Albert Pujols.