Let's start at .500.
The NL West champion in 2006 has to play above that, right?
OK, so that's what we all thought in '05, too. Then the San Diego Padres roared to the division title, or rather trotted to the division title ... OK, slowly shuffled to the division title with an 82-80 record. They became the first team in baseball history to clinch a division title with a .500 record, winning the '05 flag on the night they pushed their mark to 79-79.
Armed with the knowledge of that nugget alone, you'll agree, won't you, that no other division has as much work to do this winter as the NL West....
Here’s a quick list of winter recommendations:
| Arizona Diamondbacks | |||
| Do | |||
| Trade Javier Vazquez, and make it a good one. As a man who was dealt in the middle of a multiyear contract last winter, Vazquez has the right -- and has notified the Diamondbacks that he will invoke that right -- to demand a trade. He wants to pitch for a team in the eastern half of the United States to be closer to his native Puerto Rico. It will be healthier for all concerned if the Diamondbacks deal him -- and it should not be difficult for new GM Josh Byrnes to broker a beneficial trade; free-agent pitching is woefully thin this winter. | |||
| Whatever it takes to move Shawn Green out of center field. He tries hard. He's conscientious. But he is not a center fielder, and a pitching staff that ranked 14th in the NL in ERA last summer will not get better unless the defense improves. The Diamondbacks have too many corner outfield types -- Green, Luis Gonzalez, Chad Tracy -- and not enough candidates to play center. | |||
| Acquire a strong catcher, like free agent Ramon Hernandez. Kelly Stinnett has filed for free-agency, and Chris Snyder is good in a backup role. The Diamondbacks must get more production from whatever combination they have behind the plate. | |||
| Don't | |||
| Be shy about exploring a trade for third baseman Troy Glaus. It's going to take some creativity to re-cast this team -- get Green out of center, get a catcher, perhaps move Tracy back to third. And you know what? It's amazing how creative most GMs can be with an extra $32 million in their pocket (the sum owed Glaus over the next three seasons). | |||
| Rush shortstop prospect Stephen Drew. All indications are that he will be a stud for a long time. But this division is winnable, and there's no need to force-feed him. Bring back Royce Clayton for another year, or somebody just as capable. What's the worst that can happen? Drew tears it up in the minors, and you deal Clayton sometime in June or July to make room. | |||
| Leave any pitching stone unturned. Starters, relievers ... the Diamondbacks are in the market for all of them this winter, especially now that Vazquez has issued his trade demand. Without Vazquez, Arizona's top two starters are Brandon Webb and Russ Ortiz. And relievers are a must -- Arizona's bullpen ranked last in the NL last season with a 5.50 ERA. | |||
| Key to offseason | |||
|
There are lots of intriguing pieces here, but the Diamondbacks are like a living room with three couches and no coffee table, or a kitchen with a couple of stoves and no refrigerator. There are too many of this (corner outfielders, first basemen) and not enough of that (center fielders, pitchers). How they re-arrange the room and how they budget to acquire a missing piece or two will determine their '06 fate. That, and how they re-stock their bullpen. | ||
| Colorado Rockies | |||
| Do | |||
| Consider trading Todd Helton. He's a sensational hitter and one of the few pieces of credibility this organization maintains. But he's scheduled to make $16 million this season, and the Rockies' entire payroll is projected to be roughly $45 million. There is ample evidence around the game -- Alex Rodriguez in Texas, even Mike Hampton here -- that paying one player a disproportionate share of money in relation to the team payroll does not work. | |||
| Add pitching. And more pitching. There is never, ever enough in Coors Field. By the end of '05, there were too many Kims in the rotation (Byung-Hyun, Sun-Woo) and not enough Rockets, Big Units or Big Trains. And Colorado's bullpen ranked 14th in the NL last summer with a 4.83 ERA. The Rockies won't win until that changes. | |||
| Stick with the youth movement plan. The Rockies likely won't win with it -- not in '06, at least. But the only thing this organization has done with certainty over the past six years is change philosophies every time somebody sneezes. From going with on-base guys to pitching to sluggers to kids, nothing has worked. Let's see some patience with the current crop of kids and see what happens. It can't be worse than what's gone on over most of the past decade in Colorado. | |||
| Don't | |||
| Allow shortstop Clint Barmes to carry his own venison up the stairs. | |||
| Hesitate to sign starter Aaron Cook, closer Brian Fuentes and outfielder Matt Holliday to multiyear deals. Not only could it save money in the long run, it might lock the Rockies into actually staying with one plan for more than two years. | |||
| Ignore the bullpen. Nowhere in the game is a bullpen as important than in Colorado, where the altitude circumstances dictate more work for the relievers. The Rockies intend to add setup men this winter, both left-handed and right-handed, and this is a must. | |||
| Key to offseason | |||
|
The Rockies have continuity in manager Clint Hurdle, and he's familiar with all of the young talent in Barmes, Garrett Atkins, Holliday, etc. In a perfect Rockies world, the kids continue to mature with experience, and GM Dan O'Dowd makes smart moves in augmenting the young core with veteran pieces who will help the Rockies walk before they run -- if they ever get back into position to run. | ||
| Los Angeles Dodgers | |||
| Do | |||
| Hire a manager. Soon. Lou Piniella would be terrific. Jim Fregosi would be fine. Either would produce the swagger that was been missing from Dodger Stadium last year. Either would make a firm statement that the Dodgers are finished with the nonsense and are serious again about winning. | |||
| Add a third baseman and an outfielder who can knock the cover off of the ball and catch it when in the field. The Dodgers were exceptionally weak at third base last year after Adrian Beltre left and Jose Valentin was injured. Left field has been a source of mediocrity for a couple of years now. A deal with Arizona for third baseman Troy Glaus would go a long way toward solving the hole at third base. | |||
| Trade Milton Bradley. It's just not going to work between Bradley and Jeff Kent. And even though Kent is older and more expensive, he has also produced a resume of success. Bradley has only produced one volcanic meltdown after another. The Dodgers might not get equal value for him given his checkered past, but they're starting over in many other ways under new GM Ned Colletti, so they might as well clear the deck of this troublemaker now, too. | |||
| Don't | |||
| Plan on keeping outfielder J.D. Drew for the remaining four years of his contract. Signing him last winter smacked of desperation, and he has played in the majors long enough that you know what you're going to get with him: an underachiever who will spend part of each summer on the disabled list. Look to deal him, quickly. | |||
| Be so quick to trade Odalis Perez, even if last year's administration tired of his brutal honesty. Perez has alienated teammates with his penchant for saying what he thinks, but with Jeff Weaver having filed for free-agency, that's 200-plus innings subtracted from the rotation right there. The Dodgers need pitching, and unless Colletti can find some extra starters and put the team in position to trade Perez, they would be wise to keep him. | |||
| Overwork closer Eric Gagne early, especially in spring training. His absence was one of the primary reasons the '05 Dodgers failed (though far from the only one), and the Dodgers need a healthy Gagne if they are to close the gap in the division in '06. | |||
| Key to offseason | |||
|
The one thing the Dodgers have going for them is a deep pipeline from the farm system with such talents as catcher Dioner Navarro, catcher Russell Martin, infielders James Loney, Andy LaRoche and Joel Guzman and pitchers Jonathan Broxton, Chad Billingsley and Chuck Tiffany. What they don't have enough of is players who can help them win now. In this division, acquiring enough of them is likely too much to accomplish in one winter, but with a couple of swift moves, Colletti can restore a whole lot of missing credibility. | ||
| San Diego Padres | |||
| Do | |||
| Add a fleet center fielder who can go get the baseball. Mike Cameron? Perfect! Now if he passes his eye examination after his serious facial injury suffered last season in, coincidentally, Petco Park, the Padres will be off to a good start this winter. | |||
| Work overtime to trade left fielder/first baseman Ryan Klesko. Though he led the club with 18 homers last season, the production doesn't equal Klesko's $10 million '06 salary. It's probably going to be impossible to deal him because 29 other clubs aren't stupid, and the Padres won't be willing to eat all of that salary. Still, it never hurts to ask ... | |||
| Re-sign closer Trevor Hoffman, but don't go more than three years and $7 million per -- that's generous enough. Hoffman is looking for a three-year deal worth at least $25 million, but he's 38 and, as much as he's done for the organization, it's ludicrous to overspend for a closer that old -- especially when there are other pressing needs. This is Tony Gwynn revisited -- a Padres icon who badly wants to stay in San Diego. It's important the Padres do not insult Hoffman with an offer -- but it's suicide to overspend, too. Very touchy situation. | |||
| Don't | |||
| Go into spring training with Miguel Olivo as the No. 1 catcher. He was sensational over a short span last summer after the Padres acquired him from Seattle, but he will be exposed if he is the everyday guy. | |||
| Go into the season with Klesko in left field. If the Padres are unable to trade him -- and odds are high that they won't be able to deal him -- then they need to move him to first base and have somebody else play left field. The Padres gave up too many doubles and triples in Petco Park last season because of a slow-footed outfield. | |||
| Bring back David Wells. It's becoming an increasingly popular notion in San Diego as GM Kevin Towers looks to add pitching. But just because he is a familiar name and face around town does not mean that he will bring success. The Padres already have one old starter in Woody Williams. | |||
| Key to offseason | |||
|
Though they are defending NL West champions, the Padres have little certainty heading into '06. Their goal for the past two years has been to acquire a more athletic outfield that's better suited for spacious Petco Park. Acquiring Cameron is a step in that direction. Having already landed third baseman Vinny Castilla, the Padres almost certainly will deal Sean Burroughs this winter. They need to re-sign Hoffman or figure out who will close, they must decide on a first baseman and they must bolster their rotation. Towers works the trade market as well as anyone -- the Padres will be active. | ||
| San Francisco Giants | |||
| Do | |||
| Everything possible to keep Barry Bonds on the field. It's pretty simple in San Francisco. If Bonds is in the lineup, the Giants have every chance to contend. If he's not, forget it. | |||
| Have a backup plan in case Bonds is limited to 100 games instead of 140. Pedro Feliz needs to be in the lineup every day, and in an ideal world, the Giants would trade third baseman Edgardo Alfonzo and his $7 million salary so Feliz could play third every day. But given Bonds' status, the Giants need a solid player on call to play left field, and Feliz can do that. Trading Alfonzo, employing Feliz at third and having a solid fourth outfielder on the bench who could spell Bonds would be a good thing. | |||
| Find another starting pitcher. Last year's Giants melted down without Bonds, but pitching was a problem, too, as they had to cast longtime starter Kirk Rueter overboard midway through. Retaining Jason Schmidt was a must, and youngsters Noah Lowry and Matt Cain continue to give hope, but manager Felipe Alou's life will be a lot easier with somebody such as, say, Matt Morris added to the rotation. | |||
| Don't | |||
| Hesitate to replace reliever Scott Eyre, who signed with the Chicago Cubs this week in what is a severe blow to San Francisco’s bullpen. Eyre was one of the most productive left-handed set-up men in the game last year and was one big reason why the Giants ranked in the upper half of NL bullpens (seventh) with a 4.03 ERA. | |||
| Count on second baseman Ray Durham to fill every need at second base. If he stayed on the field it would be a different story, but Durham gets banged up too much. | |||
| Be so quick to ditch J.T. Snow in favor of Lance Niekro. Yes, Niekro's future is more open than the aging Snow's. But Snow is so valuable with the glove and in the clubhouse. The Giants need to get younger, no question, but maybe it shouldn't start with Snow. | |||
| Key to offseason | |||
|
The usual: Bonds' health, pitching and making sure they have someone to bat behind Bonds so he isn't walked a numbing number of times. In Moises Alou, the Giants should have the last of those items. They made a nice run in the NL West last September after mis-firing most of the season without Bonds. If they can add another starting pitcher, stabilize the bullpen and keep Bonds on the field, the Giants could spring back to win the division in '06. | ||
Monday: The AL West.







