Computer simulation: Game 2

The following is a computer simulation of the 2006 World Series provided by DYNASTY League Baseball, from the designer of Pursue the Pennant.

Tigers' eight-run 5th evens Series

Craig Monroe’s three-run home run and Magglio Ordonez's two-run shot highlighted Detroit's eight-run fifth that helped send the Tigers to an 8-5 win over the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 2 of the World Series.

The Cardinals took a 1-0 lead in the second after Scott Rolen tripled and scored on Ron Belliard's ground out.

Belliard gave St. Louis a 2-0 lead when he homered in the fifth.

After cruising through four innings, Cardinals starter Jeff Weaver lost control in the fifth.

Ivan Rodriguez led off by doubling over center fielder Jim Edmonds. Rodriguez took third on Sean Casey's single and then scored on Weaver's wild pitch. Another wild pitch allowed Casey to reach second. He then scored on Ramon Santiago's single.

Monroe then homered off Weaver and Ordonez homered off reliever Brad Thompson.

With temperatures in the 30's and snow flurries, Tigers starter Kenny Rogers looked shaky in the first. He have up a single to David Eckstein and walked Preston Wilson before inducing Albert Pujols to ground into a double play to escape the jam.

Analysis:

Game 1 predictions included:

• Rolen would hit a second-inning solo homer to left.
• The Cardinals would lead 5-0 -- the actual lead was actually 4-1 -- after three innings by jumping all over Justin Verlander.
• Monroe would homer off Anthony Reyes.

All those things happened in Game 1 of the DYNASTY League Baseball PC simulated game. It will be hard to duplicate that specific type of prediction of the actual game results, but the trends were all there.

The Cardinals win in Game 1 now makes Game 2 a must win for the Tigers. Here’s why:

• The Tigers likely will face right-handers Chris Carpenter and Jeff Suppan four times, including Games 6 & 7 in Detroit.
• Game 2 is the most advantageous pitching match-up in favor of the Tigers in the entire series.

Tigers manager Jim Leyland doesn’t have the left-handed bats that can do real damage vs. right-handed pitching. The Tigers are a better team vs. lefty pitching, and the problem for Leyland is that the Cardinals won‘t throw a lefty starter. Casey hits better vs. lefties (.287 with B Power vs. .266 with D Power vs. RHP). Except for the switch hitting Carlos Guillen, the Tigers don’t have a dangerous lefty swinger in the lineup. We’ll see if Leyland tries to get left-handed Alexis Gomez into the game.

Cardinals manager Tony La Russa came in with a severe disadvantage setting up his pitching rotation for Games 1 and 2 in Detroit, but now the tables have turned and La Russa has Carpenter and Suppan ready. Anthony Reyes' performance in Game 1 means we are likely to see him for Game 5 in St. Louis where he may have a more difficult time pitching in a neutral HR park vs. the extremely pitcher friendly Comerica Park.

In the DYNASTY League Baseball version of Game 2, it's interesting that three of the four homers were all down the left field line, barely staying fair and not hit that deep. DYNASTY factors in all of the ballpark dimensions, including wind effects and how well the ball carries. In Game 2, the ball will not be carrying because of the cold and the wind.

The cold is also going to cause the possibility of increased errors. Each player has his Error rating reduced by 30 in cold temperatures (DYNASTY rates players Error rating for not committing errors on a scale of 5 to 100 with 100 being the best). So Guillen, who normally has a 50 Error rating, has his rating reduced to 20.

Provided by DYNASTY League Baseball, from the designer of Pursue the Pennant.