Computer simulation: Game 3

The following is a computer simulation of the 2006 World Series provided by DYNASTY League Baseball, from the designer of Pursue the Pennant.

Cards take series lead behind Carpenter, Edmonds

Chris Carpenter pitched eight strong innings to help the St. Louis Cardinals earn an 8-4 Game 3 victory and a 2-1 series lead over the Detroit Tigers.

Carpenter surrendered two hits in the top of the ninth and then gave way to closer Adam Wainwright.

Jim Edmonds' two-run homer off Tigers starter Nate Robertson was the big blow in a four-run fifth that gave the Cardinals a 6-1 lead.

St. Louis added two more runs in the eighth on pitcher Fernando Rodney's error and Preston Wilson's sacrifice fly.

Carlos Guillen’s RBI double in the fourth scored Maggio Ordonez with Detroit's s only run through eight innings.

First baseman Albert Pujols' error helped Detroit score three ninth-inning runs.

Analysis: This is perhaps the biggest pitching mismatch in the series. Carpenter dominates right-handed hitters (.210 avg.) and is just too tough for the predominately righty-hitting Tigers lineup.

Looking ahead, the key game of the entire series might be Game 6, in which Rogers and Carpenter likely will square off in Comerica Park.

The most surprising production for the Cardinals in Game 3 was Edmonds' homer off lefty Robertson, who's very tough on left-handed batters (.184). Edmonds struggles vs. lefty pitchers with a .156 avg., but he does have B Power on his DYNASTY League Baseball player card and HR range of random numbers from 173-190 (each DYNASTY simulated play generates a random number from 0-999).

Robertson gives up zero Deep Drive results vs. LH (Deep Drives generate a chance of a possible HR depending on the ball park effects in the DYNASTY League Baseball game simulation) so the chance of Edmonds hitting a home run off Robertson is only 1.7 percent on any individual plate appearance. Tigers manager Jim Leyland has the correct pitcher to handle the Cardinals' lefty hitters, the question will be how well Robertson will do vs. right-handed batters, who tagged him for a .284 avg. and a .473 slugging percentage.

If Edmonds can do anything vs. Tigers' left-handed pitching during the series, it will be a big boost for the Cardinals. Edmonds might be the key player of the entire World Series. If he can protect Pujols when he's batting fourth in the lineup vs. right-handed pitchers and get any kind of offensive production vs. lefties, it will change the complexion of the Series. Edmonds during the year hit .295 with A Power vs. RHP and also draws a lot of walks as his 186-279 random walk numbers on his DYNASTY player card point out.

If there was one player the Cardinals missed more than anyone else during their late-season tailspin it was Edmonds. His presence and Rolen’s healthy presence in the Cardinals lineup make the 2006 version of the Cardinals the same dangerous team that won more than 100 games in 2004 and 2005. Like other teams that failed in their first attempt in the World Series (2004 for the Cardinals) the second time around historically produces the likelihood of a championship.

Provided by DYNASTY League Baseball, from the designer of Pursue the Pennant.