PHOENIX -- Canada's big win over Mexico Saturday afternoon means that underdog Italy is guaranteed to advance to the second round of the World Baseball Classic.
It also means that Team USA likely needs to win both of its remaining games to advance.
Canada won Saturday's game, 10-3, over Mexico, eliminating Mexico from the tournament.
The Americans play Italy Saturday night, and technically even a loss to the Italians wouldn't knock the U.S. out of the tournament. If Team USA loses to Italy but defeats Canada on Sunday, then the U.S., Canada and Mexico would all finish with 1-2 records, tied for the second qualifying spot.
However, Canada's lopsided win means that the U.S. would need to beat Canada by five or six runs to win a tie-breaker for the second spot. The tie-breaker would only come into play if the U.S. loses to Italy and then beats Canada.
The simplest route for the Americans would be to defeat both Italy and Canada. Similarly, Canada's simplest route to the second round would be to beat Team USA on Sunday.