UFC 100 happens at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas on Saturday, July 11, airing live on pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET. The landmark event will feature two title bouts. UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar will try to avenge his only MMA loss when he faces interim heavyweight champion Frank Mir to unify the belts. Also, welterweight champ Georges St. Pierre defends his title against Thiago "Pitbull" Alves.
TUF 9 coaches Dan Henderson and Michael "The Count" Bisping finally wage war in another marquee bout, while Jon Fitch fights Paulo Thiago, the man who made a name for himself by knocking out Josh Koscheck.
To help you get ready for UFC 100, CBSSports.com gives you a complete look at each fight on the card, with analysis from our knowledgeable MMA writers. Take a look, and then discuss your own predictions on the message board at the bottom of this page.
Fighter photos courtesy of UFC.
UFC Heavyweight Title Unification Bout:
BROCK LESNAR
vs.
FRANK MIR
n/a
Nickname
n/a
31
Age
30
6-3
Height
6-3
3-1-0 (2-1-0 UFC)
Record
12-3-0 (10-3-0 UFC)
1 (1 UFC)
KO/TKOs
2 (2 UFC)
1 (0 UFC)
Submissions
7 (6 UFC)
2 wins
Streak
3 wins
def. Randy Couture UFC 91 11/15/2008
Last Fight
def. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira UFC 92 12/27/2008
Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Mir is more confident than he's been in years, not seeming the least bit nervous. Either he's got a can't-miss game plan -- which is possible for a guy with his level of expertise -- or he's simply forgotten how hard Lesnar punches. When Lesnar goes Donkey Kong, you either get out of the way or you get hurt. Even if you block his punches, they can still knock you silly (ask Randy Couture). Or worse, Mir could injure his hand or arm, weakening his own ability to go for submissions. Mir's striking has improved, but from what we've seen so far, Lesnar's chin is decent. Mir is still a major submissions threat to a guy of Lesnar's inexperience. This time, though, don't expect Lesnar to practically giftwrap a free leg for Mir like he did in their first fight. Lesnar learned from that and is more careful about his positioning now, so on the ground, it will be Lesnar's power, wrestling and ground-and-pound ability vs. Mir's ability to set up a submission before Lesnar can knock him out. This fight will not go to a decision. I'll take Lesnar via TKO, Round 2.
Todd Martin: The beauty of the first Mir-Lesnar fight is that you can take whatever message you want out of it. Was Lesnar destroying Mir before getting caught by an amateur mistake that he will never make again? Or was Mir just too crafty for Lesnar to engage standing or on the ground? It's odd given that Lesnar is so gigantic, but I think the advantage is with him the longer the fight goes. Mir will be very dangerous early on, but over time he will almost certainly be taking punishment and he isn't known for world class cardio. I'm going with Lesnar to avoid Mir's submissions and score a TKO win.
Ben Fowlkes: You could argue that all Lesnar has is strength, size, power, speed, and a long reach. You could also argue that it's enough to beat just about any heavyweight this side of Fedor. Mir was getting overwhelmed in the first meeting before he managed to take advantage of Lesnar's impatience and ignorance of the submissions game. I'm not sure he can pull off another such Hail Mary now that Lesnar is a little sharper. Lesnar via TKO, round two. And it will not be pretty.
Gary Herman: When they first met in the early part of 2008, Lesnar was a completely different fighter. However, Mir was as well. Much has changed since then and Mir's stand-up looked unbelievable when he defeated Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. His jiu-jitsu has always been world class, and he finally looks like he has hit his peak as a fighter. Mir has a big task in front of him in Lesnar. Lesnar has won every second of every fight he has been in except for the three seconds in which Mir locked in the submission. Lesnar's power and wrestling ability are unmatched in the sport, and his stand-up game is always evolving. His stand-up will be good enough to keep Mir from dominating the fight there. We haven't seen Lesnar's peak as a fighter, but he will get closer in this match-up. Lesnar's wrestling skills along with his ground and pound will overwhelm Mir. Because it's the main event, it has the best chance to be fight of the night. Lesnar wins by second round TKO.
UFC Welterweight Title Bout:
GEORGES ST. PIERRE
vs.
THIAGO ALVES
"Rush"
Nickname
"Pitbull"
28
Age
25
5-10
Height
5-9
18-2-0 (12-2-0 UFC)
Record
16-3-0 (9-2-0 UFC)
8 (5 UFC)
KO/TKOs
10 (7 UFC)
4 (2 UFC)
Submissions
1 (0 UFC)
5 wins
Streak
7 wins
def. B.J. Penn UFC 94 1/31/2009
Last Fight
def. Josh Koscheck UFC 90 10/25/2008
Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: St. Pierre is so fascinating to watch because of his ability to attack an opponent's strengths and break their will. If he thinks you want to wrestle, he'll make it a point to outwrestle you. If he thinks you want to kickbox, he'll intentionally beat you at that game before moving on to other tactics. Most fighters would consider it tactical suicide to always confront their opponent's best skill, but St. Pierre does it on purpose, and it works for him, He's just that good. There is no easy path to victory over GSP. The closest thing would be a very precise and ferocious striking attack, since we've seen GSP lose via strikes before. If anyone at welterweight can exploit GSP on the feet, it's Alves. But I just can't bet against GSP right now. St. Pierre via TKO, Round 2.
Todd Martin: We've heard a number of times in recent years that a certain opponent is the toughest fight of GSP's career. It always sounds right going into the fight, but afterwards it sounds downright crazy. Well, Thiago Alves is the newest toughest fight of GSP's career. He's incredibly powerful for a 170 pound fighter, with brutal strikes and excellent takedown defense. If St. Pierre can't at least establish the takedown as a threat early on, he will be in big trouble. I will be far from shocked if Alves knocks out St. Pierre early. However, if St. Pierre is able to get the fight to the ground early, I think he will break Alves' will as the fight progresses. So I think it comes down to St. Pierre's wrestling, and I learned a long time ago not to bet against GSP in that department. GSP, round 2, submission.
Ben Fowlkes: Alves' best chance is to win this with takedown defense and sheer power, but the two things we know about GSP is that he'll always show up in shape, and he'll stick to his game plan, which will probably be a good one. Unlike in his upset loss to Matt Serra, GSP knows that he needs to be wary of his opponent's one-punch KO power in this fight. I think he'll outmaneuver and outwork Alves over the course of five rounds, and retain his title with a clear-cut decision victory.
Gary Herman: St. Pierre is just a much better fighter than Alves. Sure, Alves has looked good in beating Karo Parisyan, Matt Hughes, and Josh Koscheck, but none of those fighters are in the same league as St. Pierre. The scary part about St. Pierre is that he just keeps getting better. Whether it is in striking, conditioning, jiu-jitsu, or wrestling, St. Pierre has the advantage. The only edge Alves has will be his size, but that won't be enough to beat a fighter on the level of St. Pierre. Against Alves, St. Pierre will solidify that he is one of the top five fighters in the sport. St. Pierre will wear down a gassed Alves on the mat before finally locking in a submission. St. Pierre wins by third round submission.
Middleweight Bout:
DAN HENDERSON
vs.
MICHAEL BISPING
"Hendo"
Nickname
"The Count"
38
Age
30
6-1
Height
6-2
24-7-0 (4-2-0 UFC)
Record
17-1-0 (7-1-0 UFC)
10 (0 UFC)
KO/TKOs
11 (5 UFC)
1 (0 UFC)
Submissions
4 (0 UFC)
2 wins
Streak
3 wins
def. Rich Franklin UFC 93 1/17/2009
Last Fight
def. Chris Leben UFC 89 10/18/2008
Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: I'm going back and forth on this one. I'm not particularly convinced that all of Bisping's talk of outwrestling Henderson or outlasting him just because he's 38 years old is a sign of overconfidence. Bisping always talks a lot of pre-fight smack, so at this point we should consider it par for the course. Henderson showed against Rich Franklin that he's far from finished as a top-level fighter. He's fought guys like Anderson Silva, Rampage Jackson and Wanderlei Silva and still has never been KO'ed. Bisping won't be the first to do it, nor will he dominate a ground battle. Bisping's best bet is to win on points with striking and to try for submissions frequently, which he is capable of if he brings his A game. But I still like Henderson via decision here.
Todd Martin: This fight reminds me of so many fights we have seen in recent years where a lot of people just assume that the longtime Pride veteran is in a different class than the relatively unestablished UFC guy. I just don't think that's the case. Henderson's obviously the better wrestler, but he tends to like to stand and trade. I think Bisping's the hungrier fighter and that Henderson is underestimating him. Bisping will win this fight in the standup and take the decision.
Ben Fowlkes: All this talk of Bisping planning to outwrestle Hendo is cause for concern, unless it's all a clever and committed ploy. Bisping's best chance is to stay away and outstrike Henderson from a distance, but odds are that eventually he'll wind up on his back. I think Henderson is too tough and too good a wrestler, and while I don't expect it to be a thrilling bout I think he'll come away with the decision victory thanks largely to his ability to control Bisping on the mat.
Gary Herman: This fight will be a mismatch. Everything that Bisping does, Henderson does better. I don't see how Bisping possibly gets the victory. His only hope is connecting with a lucky punch. That may be impossible to do as well because Henderson has never been knocked out. Henderson is a better striker, and he's a better wrestler. He's also determined to finish his first fight since the Wanderlei Silva knockout over two years ago. All of this adds up to major trouble for Bisping. I believe Henderson wins this fight 100 out of 100 times. That's not to say Bisping isn't a capable fighter because he is, but this is a very bad match-up for him. Henderson takes home the knockout bonus with a second round KO.
Welterweight Bout:
JON FITCH
vs.
PAULO THIAGO
n/a
Nickname
n/a
31
Age
28
6-0
Height
5-11
18-3-1 (9-1-0 UFC)
Record
11-0-0 (1-0-0 UFC)
4 (1 UFC)
KO/TKOs
2 (1 UFC)
5 (3 UFC)
Submissions
7 (0 UFC)
1 win
Streak
11 wins
def. Akihiro Gono UFC 94 1/31/2009
Last Fight
def. Josh Koscheck UFC 95 2/21/2009
Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Thiago made a name for himself in February with an unexpected KO of Josh Koscheck. Well, OK... Gary Herman predicted it, but virtually nobody else expected it. The thing is, Thiago's standup didn't look all that great until the KO. Was he timing Koscheck, or baiting him, or was it just a lucky punch? Who knows, but now he's in there with Fitch, whose only UFC loss was to GSP, who could not finish Fitch despite mauling him for 25 minutes. Thiago is better on the ground than he is standing, but Fitch has been put through the wringer by one of the top fighters on Planet Earth already. I think Fitch is ready for Thiago, and he'll win via unanimous decision.
Todd Martin: Congratulations, Paulo. Your reward for defeating top welterweight contender Josh Koscheck is a fight with Jon Fitch, who holds a 16-fight win streak against men not named Georges St. Pierre. Fitch is incredibly tough to defeat, because he's so powerful, gritty and determined. I think this fight will mostly take place on the ground. Thiago may threaten a few times with submissions, but Fitch will avoid them and score a late TKO or decision win.
Ben Fowlkes: Regardless of whether you believe that Thiago's KO of Josh Koscheck was one lucky punch or good strategy at work, the few minutes we saw of him were not encouraging. His stand-up has some serious holes in it, and if he's planning to win this thing on the mat he'd better be a submissions wiz off his back. Fitch is too tough and savvy a fighter to get lazy or get caught. He'll take Thiago down and pound him out late in the second. Fitch via TKO.
Gary Herman: Upset phenom Paulo Thiago gets a chance to prove his first round knockout over Josh Koscheck was not a fluke. In order to do that, he has to defeat one of the toughest fighters in the sport in Jon Fitch. Fitch is a hard-nosed wrestler who is very much is the same form as Dan Henderson. The odds of stopping Fitch are very remote. On the other hand, the chances of stopping Thiago are also very slim. Thiago has never lost, and he has the more advanced ground game. Thiago's knockout of Koscheck may have been unexpected, but he certainly could have finished Koscheck on the mat if the fight went long enough. While Thiago won't be a surprise to Koscheck's teammate in Fitch, he will surprise the rest of the world when he pulls out another victory. Thiago wins a close fight by unanimous decision.
Middleweight Bout:
YOSHIHIRO AKIYAMA
vs.
ALAN BELCHER
n/a
Nickname
"The Talent"
33
Age
25
5-10
Height
6-2
12-1-2 (UFC debut)
Record
14-5-0 (5-3-0 UFC)
5
KO/TKOs
7 (2 UFC)
7
Submissions
5 (2 UFC)
2 wins
Streak
2 wins
def. Masanori Tonooka DREAM 6 9/23/2008
Last Fight
def. Denis Kang UFC 93 1/17/2009
Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Putting Akiyama's UFC debut on the same card as a Georges St. Pierre fight might be somebody's idea of a rib, given both fighters' history of greasing allegations. Akiyama's dry skin issues aside, he's a dangerous striker that could easily put Belcher on the wrong side of a UFC highlight reel clip. Belcher, however, will already be comfortable within the setting of a UFC fight on American soil, and there are no guarantees that Akiyama will handle the adjustment well. All the same, I'm betting Akiyama TKO's Belcher in the third round.
Todd Martin: Watching Akiyama fight just won't be the same without 15,000-20,000 normally reserved Japanese people loudly calling for his head. Akiyama is a quality fighter with a well rounded game, but it's going to be tough for him fighting in the UFC for the first time against someone who is young and on the rise but also used to that setting. I think Belcher will score the upset by catching Akiyama in the standup.
Ben Fowlkes: Belcher made out well in his role as the UFC welcoming committee against Denis Kang, but I'm not so sure he'll have the same luck against Akiyama. This guy is about as explosive as they come and he doesn't make many mistakes. If Belcher can hang in there and keep Akiyama from getting into a rhythm he may surprise him, but I doubt it. Akiyama via late TKO.
Gary Herman: The opening fight on the pay-per-view broadcast is very intriguing. Akiyama is a very exciting striker with broad international appeal. On the other hand, he's been protected in his last few fights in Japan so it's hard to know exactly where is skill level is at. At 34, he's not young, but he could still be a major factor in the UFC's middleweight division if he's at the top of his game. Belcher has developed into a formidable opponent following two straight upset wins over Ed Herman and Denis Kang. Belcher is a good all around fighter, but I expect him to try to stand with Akiyama. That will be a bad decision. Akiyama wins by second round knockout.
Light Heavyweight Bout:
MARK COLEMAN
vs.
STEPHAN BONNAR
"The Hammer"
Nickname
"American Psycho"
44
Age
32
6-1
Height
6-4
15-9-0 (7-4-0 UFC)
Record
11-5-0 (5-4-0 UFC)
4 (2 UFC)
KO/TKOs
2 (1 UFC)
8 (4 UFC)
Submissions
7 (2 UFC)
2 losses
Streak
1 loss
lost to Mauricio Rua UFC 93 1/17/2009
Last Fight
lost to Jon Jones UFC 94 1/31/2009
Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: In the UFC's early days, Coleman was the original Brock Lesnar -- a hulking, aggressive wrestler with heavy hands. But at 44 years of age, his feet have looked heavier than his fists of late. His wrestling ability isn't the advantage it used to be, because wrestling requires endurance, and Coleman now gasses out faster. Coleman still punches hard early in the fight, but Bonnar's never been knocked out. It's a shame this isn't planned for the live broadcast, because there's a strong chance Bonnar will retire this UFC Hall of Famer on Saturday. Bonnar via TKO, Round 2.
Todd Martin: This is a heck of an interesting fight to not be televised on a live card. It's the innovator of ground and pound fighting perhaps for the last time in the UFC against one of the Ultimate Fighter stars who brought in a whole new generation of stars. Bonnar looked bad in his most recent fight against Jon Jones, but he's generally a very good fighter in all aspects of the game. I don't see Coleman being able to finish Bonnar standing or on the ground, nor having the endurance to go three rounds and win the decision. Thus, Bonnar's the choice.
Ben Fowlkes: I know, Coleman swears he's got his cardio in order this time and will show us all that he's still got a little gas left in the tank. Sorry, but I just don't believe it. The guy is a living legend in this sport, so it pains me to say it, but his time has long since passed. Bonnar has looked like a fighter on his way down of late, but his youth, speed, and resiliency ought to be enough to edge out Coleman. I'll take Bonnar via decision.
Gary Herman: This is an interesting fight to not make television as both Coleman and Bonnar are definitely household names to all MMA fans. That is likely due to Coleman's lack of cardio in his January loss to Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. For Coleman, the fight could very well be the last in his hall of fame career. While he hung tough with Rua, he didn't look particular menacing, and it would be hard to keep him around as a gatekeeper when he now fights a less than exciting style. Bonnar could also use a victory, but he's not in any danger as Dana White has often referred to him as one of his “kids” since his historic first fight with Forrest Griffin. Bonnar will be smart enough to take advantage of Coleman's endurance problems, and that will lead to openings for Bonnar's ground game. Bonnar wins by second round submission.
Lightweight Bout:
MAC DANZIG
vs.
JIM MILLER
n/a
Nickname
n/a
29
Age
25
5-8
Height
5-8
18-6-1 (2-2-0 UFC)
Record
13-2-0 (2-1-0 UFC)
4 (0 UFC)
KO/TKOs
1 (0 UFC)
10 (2 UFC)
Submissions
9 (1 UFC)
2 losses
Streak
1 loss
lost to Josh Neer Fight Night 17 2/7/2009
Last Fight
lost to Gray Maynard UFC 96 3/7/2009
Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Danzig went from being a TUF champion to being on a two-fight skid in the UFC's perpetually crowded 155-pound division. Miller got out-muscled by Gray Maynard for his only UFC loss, but against Danzig, he should be more capable of instigating submission attempts. Danzig is reasonably well-rounded, but his big weapon is also the submissions game, and Miller is better at that. Miller will win this via unanimous decision, and I'm afraid Danzig will be looking for work elsewhere.
Todd Martin: Jim Miller was on a roll before running into momentum killer Gray Maynard. Maynard established that you can wear down Miller with relentless power wrestling, but there aren't a lot of other established paths to getting the best of Miller. It's a tough bout for Danzig, who is probably best off trying to keep the fight standing. However, Miller isn't a slouch in the standup department and he finds ways to get fights to the ground. I see Miller extending Danzig's current losing streak.
Ben Fowlkes: A year ago this would have seemed like a mismatch. But now the Miller brothers have both proved themselves to be dangerous, though beatable, while Danzig just doesn't seem to have the same fire that he used to. I think Miller is the better striker and the better grappler, so I'm not sure how Danzig is going to win this one. I suppose the answer is, he won't. Miller via submission.
Gary Herman: Former Ultimate Fighter winner Mac Danzig gets one more chance to save his fledgling UFC career before possibly getting released. Coming off less than impressive performances in back to back losses to Josh Neer and Clay Guida, Danzig is likely in a do-or-die situation. His opponent, Miller, is no easy match-up. Miller is a very accomplished submission fighter who was won two of three UFC fights. The way to beat Miller is to overpower him, and I don't believe Danzig will be able to do so. Danzig will rely on his stand-up ability to stay out of Miller's guard, but I can't see him being able to do it for three rounds. Miller wins by third round submission.
Light Heavyweight Bout:
JON JONES
vs.
JAKE O'BRIEN
"Bones"
Nickname
"Irish"
21
Age
24
6-4
Height
6-3
8-0-0 (2-0-0 UFC)
Record
11-2-0 (4-2-0 UFC)
5 (0 UFC)
KO/TKOs
8 (1 UFC)
1 (0 UFC)
Submissions
0
8 wins
Streak
1 win
def. Stephan Bonnar UFC 94 1/31/2009
Last Fight
def. Christian Wellisch UFC 94 1/31/2009
Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Jones is the biggest thing to come out of Endicott, N.Y. since the spiedie. He tossed around Stephan Bonnar like a sack of dirty laundry at UFC 94 and has won all eight of his pro MMA bouts. He's got great wrestling and very good striking for a newcomer. O'Brien is know for squeaking out decisions with his own wrestling, but that tactic will backfire against Jones, who will win his third straight UFC bout here, via third-round TKO.
Todd Martin: This is a matchup between one of the UFC's most exciting fighters and one of the UFC's least exciting fighters. Jon Jones has established himself as one of the sport's most compelling prospects in quick order with his innovative offensive skill set. Jake O'Brien mostly just holds his opponents down for as long as he can. Jones' wrestling background will make it hard for O'Brien to take him down, and he has a much more well rounded game already. Jones is the pick.
Ben Fowlkes: This is not a good fight for O'Brien. He's probably not going to outwrestle Jones and he's certainly not going to beat him standing. Since he's a fighter who has basically relied on takedowns and little else to get him to this point, that means he's in for a rough night. Jones is too strong and too athletic, and he'll prove to be way too fast in the striking game. Jones via TKO.
Gary Herman: Whereas Jones is known for making exciting fights, O'Brien -- well -- isn't. O'Brien always makes each fight he is in the most boring possible. He has a good wrestling background, but that generally leads to his fights reaching the scorecards. Fortunately, the undefeated Jones is a prolific striker who will be looking to get on the highlight reel. Jones unveiled a variety of throws and slams in his victory over Stephan Bonnar that the UFC has not seen before. Plus, his wrestling should negate O'Brien's repeated takedown attempts. Without the takedowns, O'Brien will have little to offer. Therefore, the undefeated prospect continues his impressive win streak. Jones wins by second-round knockout.
Welterweight Bout:
DONG HYUN KIM
vs.
T.J. GRANT
"Stun Gun"
Nickname
n/a
27
Age
25
6-1
Height
5-10
11-0-2 (2-0-1 UFC)
Record
14-2-0 (1-0-0 UFC)
6 (1 UFC)
KO/TKOs
1 (0 UFC)
1 (0 UFC)
Submissions
12 (0 UFC)
1 no contest
Streak
5 wins
NC Karo Parisyan UFC 94 1/31/2009
Last Fight
def. Ryo Chonan UFC 97 4/18/2009
Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Thanks to the Nevada State Athletic Commission changing his split decision loss to Karo Parisyan into a "no contest" due to Karo's failed drug test, Kim is still undefeated. Grant is primarily a submission fighter, with seven of his 12 submission victories coming via armbar (and one more via kimura). So Grant's path to victory is pretty clear. Kim is a fourth-degree Judo black belt with good striking and a lot of potential, and I pick him to win this via TKO in Round 2.
Todd Martin: Kim has shown flashes of brilliance in his early UFC career, but he has also been inconsistent. T.J. Grant is a late replacement in this fight, and he presents more of a stylistic challenge than original opponent Jonathan Goulet. The key to the fight will be Grant's ability to deal with the judo of Kim. I think Kim will keep Grant off balance, throw him down, and secure a victory on the ground.
Ben Fowlkes: Kim is one of the toughest relatively unknown guys in the UFC's welterweight class right now, and he proved it against Karo Parisyan (even if he got screwed on the decision). Grant has a good submissions game, but I just don't know if he's got the all-around game to contend with Kim just yet. Kim via decision.
Gary Herman: Kim against Grant has a chance to be a very tactical fight. They are polar opposites of one another. Kim will do everything possible to keep the fight standing while Grant will look for every opportunity to get the fight to the ground. Both guys are at similar points in their career where a win would push them to the next level (a fight on television). Kim's underrated striking ability will be too much for Grant. Eventually, Grant is going to drop. Kim wins by third round knockout.
Middleweight Bout:
C.B. DOLLAWAY
vs.
TOM LAWLOR
"The Doberman"
Nickname
"The Filthy Mauler"
25
Age
26
6-2
Height
6-0
8-1-0 (2-1-0 UFC)
Record
5-1-1 (1-0-0 UFC)
5 (1 UFC)
KO/TKOs
2 (0 UFC)
2 (1 UFC)
Submissions
2 (0 UFC)
2 wins
Streak
2 wins
def. Mike Massenzio UFC 92 12/27/2008
Last Fight
def. Kyle Kingsbury TUF 8 Finale 12/13/2008
Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: There are two proven ways to beat C.B. Dollaway in a fight: 1) Be Amir Sadollah, and 2) keep trying for an armbar until you get one. Lawlor is well-rounded, but he'll be at a disadvantage in wrestling (which is usually one of Lawlor's strengths) and a standup duel might also favor Dollaway. Dollaway also trains with Ryan Bader, who fought and beat Lawlor on TUF 8 and surely offered some of his expertise. Dollaway via third-round TKO.
Todd Martin: I'm expecting a competitive fight here. Lawlor is a solid fighter with a good wrestling background and will be hard to throw around moving down in weight class. However, I do favor Dollaway, who has an excellent wrestling background himself and is farther along as an overall fighter.
Ben Fowlkes: I'm sitting here trying to think of something that Lawlor does better than Dollaway, and aside from not sneering all the time, I'm drawing a blank. As long as Dollaway doesn't get careless and land himself in a submission (and if he hasn't learned that lesson now, he never will) this is his fight all the way. Dollaway via TKO.
Gary Herman: Why Dollaway is still fighting the Tom Lawlors of the world is beyond me. It's also beyond Lawlor. Did somebody say Peruvian necktie? And did somebody say submission of the night? Dollaway wins by first round tapout.
Lightweight Bout:
MATT GRICE
vs.
SHANNON GUGERTY
"The Real One"
Nickname
n/a
27
Age
27
5-8
Height
5-10
9-2-0 (1-2-0 UFC)
Record
11-3-0 (1-1-0 UFC)
3 (0 UFC)
KO/TKOs
3 (0 UFC)
3 (0 UFC)
Submissions
8 (1 UFC)
1 loss
Streak
1 loss
lost to Matt Veach Fight Night 17 2/7/2009
Last Fight
lost to Spencer Fisher UFC 90 10/25/2008
Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: These guys are just about equal in terms of experience. Grice (a four-time Oklahoma state wrestling champion in high school) will be able to frustrate Gugerty with takedowns and positioning battles on the ground, but that could backfire since Gugerty likes to go for submissions and is a pretty good finisher. If the fight goes the distance, look for Grice to win on points, but there's a strong chance that Gugerty will tap him out before it gets that far. I'm picking Gugerty via tapout in Round 2.
Todd Martin: On a card filled with intriguing matchups and fighters, this will clearly be the fight with the least interest going in. Neither man has been particularly successful thus far in UFC, but their losses have come to high quality opponents. Gugerty to me has the more well-rounded game, but Grice's wrestling will allow him to dictate the pace and nature of the fight. I think Gugerty is more likely to win early and Grice more likely to win late, and I'm thus picking Grice in a fight that goes to the decision.
Ben Fowlkes: Wow, bet you never expected these two to be leading off the biggest UFC card ever. I suppose someone's got to go first, even if it is an event so stacked that Mark Coleman gets pushed to the prelims. Neither of these guys has set the UFC on fire in his time there, but I think Gugerty is the better all around fighter, though not by much. Still, it's enough for me. Gugerty via decision.
Gary Herman: Gugerty hung in very well before losing by submission to Spencer Fisher. Now, he takes on a less accomplished opponent in Grice. Both fighters are well skilled on the ground, but Grice is better standing. In Grice's last fight, he lost a one round battle with Matt Veach. Gugerty is too skilled to lose quickly so I don't seem him losing at all -- just don't expect to see this fight on television. Gugerty wins by third round submission.
Writer's Prediction Records for 2009:
Records through July 6, 2009.
Ben Fowlkes: 77-33 (70%)
Gary Herman: 76-34 (69%)
Denny Burkholder: 74-36 (67%)
Todd Martin: 73-37 (66%)
Sam Caplan: 10-5 (67%)
2008 Records:
Includes every predicted fight of 2008.
Denny Burkholder: 147-67 (68.69%)
Sam Caplan: 138-64 (68.32%)
Todd Martin: 143-71 (66.82%)
Ben Fowlkes: 126-68 (64.95%)
Gregg Doyel: 126-77 (62.07%)
About the writers: Denny Burkholder is the MMA and boxing producer and staff writer for CBSSports.com. Sam Caplan is an MMA contributor for CBSSports.com and the publisher of FiveOuncesOfPain.com. Todd Martin has covered mixed martial arts for the Los Angeles Times, Wrestling Observer, SI.com and CBSSports.com. Ben Fowlkes is an MMA contributor for SI.com, CagePotato.com and CBSSports.com. Gary Herman is an MMA contributor for CBSSports.com and other publications.
I'm a big fan of dos Santos but an even bigger fan of Mirko. That being said, I don't see Mirko being able to defend against Cigano's pressure and strikes. This could very well be it for any consideration of Cro Cop as a viable contender.
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Am I the only one that sincerely hopes that someone...anyone really...puts an end to Gray Maynard's unbeaten run in the UFC? I mean, I have nothing personally against the guy, but he is one of those fighters that puts a crowd to sleep. He
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Pretty much every realistic look at this fight has Couture winning, which is why I haven't found one "expert" who has picked Nog. The fight is in Couture's hometown, he's fighting a guy who has apparently dropped off in ability, Randy can u
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Overall the card is pretty thin with two potentially classic battles closing the broadcast. I think Forrest has an excellant shot at shutting down Silva. Silva's quick no doubt about it but after seeing his weigh photos I have to say he l
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Denny Burkholder: Mir is more confident than he's been in years, not seeming the least bit nervous. Either he's got a can't-miss game plan -- which is possible for a guy with his level of expertise -- or he's simply forgotten how hard Lesnar punches. When Lesnar goes Donkey Kong, you either get out of the way or you get hurt. Even if you block his punches, they can still knock you silly (ask Randy Couture). Or worse, Mir could injure his hand or arm, weakening his own ability to go for submissions. Mir's striking has improved, but from what we've seen so far, Lesnar's chin is decent. Mir is still a major submissions threat to a guy of Lesnar's inexperience. This time, though, don't expect Lesnar to practically giftwrap a free leg for Mir like he did in their first fight. Lesnar learned from that and is more careful about his positioning now, so on the ground, it will be Lesnar's power, wrestling and ground-and-pound ability vs. Mir's ability to set up a submission before Lesnar can knock him out. This fight will not go to a decision. I'll take Lesnar via TKO, Round 2.
Todd Martin: The beauty of the first Mir-Lesnar fight is that you can take whatever message you want out of it. Was Lesnar destroying Mir before getting caught by an amateur mistake that he will never make again? Or was Mir just too crafty for Lesnar to engage standing or on the ground? It's odd given that Lesnar is so gigantic, but I think the advantage is with him the longer the fight goes. Mir will be very dangerous early on, but over time he will almost certainly be taking punishment and he isn't known for world class cardio. I'm going with Lesnar to avoid Mir's submissions and score a TKO win.
Ben Fowlkes: You could argue that all Lesnar has is strength, size, power, speed, and a long reach. You could also argue that it's enough to beat just about any heavyweight this side of Fedor. Mir was getting overwhelmed in the first meeting before he managed to take advantage of Lesnar's impatience and ignorance of the submissions game. I'm not sure he can pull off another such Hail Mary now that Lesnar is a little sharper. Lesnar via TKO, round two. And it will not be pretty.
Gary Herman: When they first met in the early part of 2008, Lesnar was a completely different fighter. However, Mir was as well. Much has changed since then and Mir's stand-up looked unbelievable when he defeated Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. His jiu-jitsu has always been world class, and he finally looks like he has hit his peak as a fighter. Mir has a big task in front of him in Lesnar. Lesnar has won every second of every fight he has been in except for the three seconds in which Mir locked in the submission. Lesnar's power and wrestling ability are unmatched in the sport, and his stand-up game is always evolving. His stand-up will be good enough to keep Mir from dominating the fight there. We haven't seen Lesnar's peak as a fighter, but he will get closer in this match-up. Lesnar's wrestling skills along with his ground and pound will overwhelm Mir. Because it's the main event, it has the best chance to be fight of the night. Lesnar wins by second round TKO.
