UFC 91 takes place at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday, Nov. 15, airing live on PPV at 10 p.m. ET. In the main event, UFC Hall of Famer and reigning heavyweight champion Randy "The Natural" Couture defends the belt against powerful newcomer Brock Lesnar, who is a former WWE star and NCAA wrestling champion. Also on the card, lightweight contender Kenny Florian battles Joe "Daddy" Stevenson and Nate "Rock" Quarry fights submission master Demian Maia.
To help you get ready for UFC 91, CBSSports.com gives you a complete look at each fight on the card, with analysis from our knowledgeable MMA writers. Take a look, and then discuss your own predictions on the message board at the bottom of this page.
Aaron Riley photo courtesy of Getty Images. All other fighter photos courtesy of UFC.
UFC Heavyweight Title Bout:
RANDY COUTURE
vs.
BROCK LESNAR
"The Natural"
Nickname
n/a
45
Age
31
6-2
Height
6-3
16-8-0 (13-5-0 UFC)
Record
2-1-0 (1-1-0 UFC)
7 (7 UFC)
KO/TKOs
1 (0 UFC)
2 (2 UFC)
Submissions
0
2 wins
Streak
1 win
def. Gabriel Gonzaga UFC 74 8/25/2007
Last Fight
def. Heath Herring UFC 87 8/9/2008
Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Few are better at exploiting an opponent's weaknesses than Couture, so unless Lesnar can end it quickly with strikes, we're bound to see the true level of Lesnar's abilities exposed in this fight. Couture will force that issue. He'll test Lesnar's chin, his movement, and his clinch work. Lesnar's wrestling is superb and he'll have a significant weight advantage, which matters because it makes him hard to push around. Lesnar could win this, but until I see proof that Couture's age has finally caught up with him, I have to pick Couture via TKO. If he doesn't knock Couture out relatively early, Lesnar will eventually make a costly mistake, and Couture will capitalize on it quickly.
Sam Caplan: Lesnar is a dangerous opponent and is the superior athlete. If he were to win Saturday, it wouldn't surprise me. However, the pick for me is Couture via third round TKO. I just think Couture's intangibles will prove to be the difference over Lesnar's measurables. Couture has too much experience and is a tactical wizard. He'll have the gameplan needed to beat Lesnar, which I believe will consist of using footwork to stay out of position of Lesnar's shot and closing the distance between the two in order to bodylock the 2000 NCAA heavyweight champ and putting him on his back. Once he has Lesnar on his back, I expect Couture to test Lesnar's MMA skills and finish him with punches and elbows inside of Lesnar's guard.
Gregg Doyel: After he re-hydrates, Lesnar is going to have almost 60 pounds of weight on Couture by the time the fight rolls around. Lesnar also will be able to match Couture for control on the ground, and perhaps even top him, given his size advantage. Couture's biggest edge is in the striking game, but Lesnar's reach advantage will make it hard for Couture to capitalize. So how will Couture win? I have no idea. But he will. Because that's what Couture does.
Todd Martin: I’ve vacillated on this fight a lot since it was announced. There are so many questions, from Lesnar’s development to Couture’s age. Ultimately, however, I’m not going to pick against Randy Couture in a fight with such an inexperienced opponent. Couture’s greatest strength is his ability to game plan and exploit the weaknesses of an opponent. Lesnar is still raw, and he has more weaknesses to exploit than most. I think Couture will in particular rely on his clinch game and dirty boxing. He’ll frustrate Lesnar, keep the pressure on, and grind out a win like he has so many times before.
Ben Fowlkes: If this were a three-round fight, I’d like Lesnar’s chances to ride out a decision. But over the course of five rounds the inexperienced Lesnar is bound to give Couture an opening, and “The Natural” is both savvy and resilient enough to wait for it and then capitalize on it when it comes. Lesnar’s big and strong and may push Couture around more than he’s used to, but Couture will stick with him and break Lesnar down for a late TKO victory.
Lightweight Bout:
KENNY FLORIAN
vs.
JOE STEVENSON
"KenFlo"
Nickname
"Daddy"
32
Age
26
5-10
Height
5-7
12-3-0 (8-2-0 UFC)
Record
29-8-0 (6-2-0 UFC)
3 (3 UFC)
KO/TKOs
6 (1 UFC)
6 (4 UFC)
Submissions
13 (3 UFC)
5 wins
Streak
1 win
def. Roger Huerta UFC 87 8/9/2008
Last Fight
def. Gleison Tibau UFC 86 7/5/2008
Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Florian is so close to another shot at the 155 title that he can smell it. That adds a new layer of pressure for this fight, since a loss to Stevenson -- who was manhandled by BJ Penn in January -- would set Florian back considerably. Luckily, he's the best he has ever been as a fighter, winning five straight over solid opponents and finishing all of them except for Roger Huerta. Florian can win this fight anywhere, while Stevenson needs to go for submissions. Florian has an active guard and punishing elbows from the bottom, which is all the more reason to favor Florian in this fight, via third-round submission.
Sam Caplan: This fight is almost too close to call. Submissions are pretty much a tossup while Stevenson has the better wrestling. However, on the feet - where the fight will start each and every round - Florian has a huge advantage. I think Florian's Muay Thai will allow him to score more points with the judges, leading to a unanimous decision victory.
Gregg Doyel: Florian gets better every time out, but he's still not good enough to beat Sean Sherk, and he probably never will be. And Joe Stevenson is another Sherk. Short, squatty, compact, hard to submit, impossible to control ... Florian's best chance is to keep the fight standing and to catch Stevenson with his superior reach. But Stevenson is too smart to let it happen, so this fight will be a ground-and-pound special. Won't be all that fun to watch, unless you like seeing Stevenson with his hand in the air.
Todd Martin: There was a time when Joe Stevenson would have defeated Kenny Florian. I think that time has passed. Florian just keeps improving, and the combination of his striking, reach, takedown defense and submissions will present serious problems for Stevenson. Florian will frustrate Stevenson wherever the fight goes, and I see Florian winning via TKO or submission in the third round.
Ben Fowlkes: Florian is at the top of his game right now and though he finds himself in a lightweight purgatory, waiting for B.J. Penn to decide what weight class he wants to fight in, he’s still the second-best 155-pounder in the UFC for the moment. Stevenson won’t submit him and he won’t outstrike him. He also won’t out-gameplan the cerebral KenFlo, who’ll control him and look to wear him down. Stevenson endures, but Florian wins via unanimous decision.
Heavyweight Bout:
GABRIEL GONZAGA
vs.
JOSH HENDRICKS
"Napao"
Nickname
"Heavy"
29
Age
32
6-1
Height
6-2
9-3-0 (5-2-0 UFC)
Record
15-4-1 (UFC debut)
3 (3 UFC)
KO/TKOs
4
6 (2 UFC)
Submissions
10
1 win
Streak
5 wins
def. Justin McCully UFC 86 7/5/2008
Last Fight
def. Braden Bice NLF 11 11/21/2007
Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Gonzaga is interesting. His strength is in submissions, but his biggest career win came via a highlight-reel head kick KO. His two UFC losses were to Couture and Werdum, but other than a deteriorating Mirko Cro Cop, he also hasn't beaten any serious contenders yet. Hendricks makes his UFC debut with a pretty good win streak going, but he hasn't beaten anyone of Gonzaga's skill level. I don't think he'll start now. Gonzaga wins via submission, Round 2.
Sam Caplan: Undefeated in his last 11 fights, Hendricks is a solid addition to the UFC's heavyweight division. The thing is, I just don't think he's at a level where he's ready to pull off wins against top ten-caliber heavyweights such as Gonzaga. Gonzaga has quite a few kinks in his armor but I am not convinced that Hendricks will be able to expose them. Gonzaga via unanimous decision.
Gregg Doyel: This is another reclamation fight for Gonzaga, who bit off more than he could chew against Randy Couture and Fabricio Werdum but was then fed Justin McCully and is now being given Hendricks. Gonzaga can end this fight any way he chooses, and he's going to choose -- eenie, meanie, miney, mo -- ground and pound. Second round.
Todd Martin: Gabriel Gonzaga’s reputation as an elite, top 10 fighter was built on the basis of one win: his knockout of Mirko Cro Cop at UFC 70. Of course, it’s apparent by this point that Cro Cop just hasn’t been the same fighter since he left Pride. Other than that fight, Gonzaga’s biggest win is probably Carmelo Marrero. In short, he isn’t as good as his reputation. Will Hendricks be able to exploit that? It’s doubtful. Hendricks’ strength is submission wrestling, and he isn’t beating Gonzaga in that game. Gonzaga will win and we’ll have to table this point about Gonzaga for another day.
Ben Fowlkes: After a couple hard losses to a couple very good opponents, Gonzaga proved he’s still much better than many of the UFC’s mid-level heavyweights, and Hendricks hasn’t even earned that title yet. This is Gonzaga’s to lose, and unless he comes in out of shape or underestimates Hendricks, he won’t. First-round submission for Gonzaga.
Middleweight Bout:
NATE QUARRY
vs.
DEMIAN MAIA
"The Rock"
Nickname
n/a
36
Age
31
6-0
Height
6-0
10-2-0 (5-1-0 UFC)
Record
8-0-0 (3-0-0 UFC)
6 (4 UFC)
KO/TKOs
1 (0 UFC)
2 (0 UFC)
Submissions
5 (3 UFC)
2 wins
Streak
8 wins
def. Kalib Starnes UFC 83 4/19/2008
Last Fight
def. Jason MacDonald UFC 87 8/9/2008
Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Maia has proven in his three UFC outings that he is a ridiculously skilled jiu-jitsu practitioner, seemingly capable of tapping anyone out. Quarry hasn't faced a fighter yet with this level of BJJ. Quarry has the edge in striking and is not particularly easy to take down, so he stands a chance if he can stay on his feet and do some damage with his fists. But ultimately, I think Maia remains undefeated here. Maia by submission, Round 3.
Sam Caplan: Quarry is definitely a threat to knock Maia out, but Maia is a class above Quarry in my eyes and knows to avoid Quarry's punching power. I expect Maia to get this fight to the ground early and continue his undefeated ways inside of the Octagon with a unanimous decision victory.
Gregg Doyel: If Maia agrees to stand and bang with Quarry, Quarry wins. Maia can't do it. But Maia seems like one of the smarter fighters to join the UFC in a long time, and his strength is on the ground, and even if he has to get knocked down to get there, that's where he'll take Quarry. And eventually Quarry won't get up. Not until he wakes up.
Todd Martin: Maia, based on his style, is considered one of the top threats to Anderson Silva at 185 pounds. I don’t think the hype is undeserved. However, this is an awful style matchup for him. Quarry is an excellent wrestler who stuffs takedowns and beats people standing. Maia will not be able to defeat Quarry standing, and I don’t think Maia can get him down. As such, I’m picking Quarry to score the upset here.
Ben Fowlkes: As tough and as well-rounded as Quarry is, he simply does not have the ground game to hang with Maia. Maia’s jiu-jitsu is so dangerous, everyone he faces from now on will want to avoid going to the mat with him, but that’s easier said than done. At some point Quarry’s is going to find himself down there, and before he can figure out why or how it happened, he’ll be tapping out. Another Sub of the Night bonus for Maia.
Welterweight Bout:
DUSTIN HAZELETT
vs.
TAMDAN McCRORY
"McLovin'"
Nickname
"The Barn Cat"
22
Age
22
6-1
Height
6-4
11-4-0 (4-2-0 UFC)
Record
9-1-0 (2-1-0 UFC)
1 (0 UFC)
KO/TKOs
6 (0 UFC)
8 (3 UFC)
Submissions
2 (1 UFC)
1 win
Streak
1 win
def. Josh Burkman TUF 7 Finale 6/21/2008
Last Fight
def. Luke Cummo UFC 87 8/9/2008
Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: No disrespect to Amir Sadollah or Nick Catone, but I was excited to hear this fight got bumped to the main PPV broadcast when Sadollah had to pull out of his fight. Hazelett and McCrory are two very likeable young fighters with tons of upside. "The Barn Cat" is very tall and deceptively tough, while Hazelett's a jiu-jitsu specialist with increasing skills in other areas. I like Hazelett to win via Round 2 submission, but do not be surprised if McCrory gives him fits.
Sam Caplan: This is a tremendous matchup and UFC Vice President of Talent Relations Joe Silva deserves a hat tip for this one. Both fighters are good on the ground, wtih Hazelett having an advantage. McCrory gets the nod in the standup because he will have the reach advantage. It's not an easy fight to call but my money is on Hazelett winning via unanimous decision thanks to multiple submission attempts.
Gregg Doyel: I like McCrory. A lot. But he doesn't have the jiu-jitsu to hang with Hazelett, and judging from the way Hazelett took it to Josh Koscheck for more than a round, he doesn't have the stand-up to beat Hazelett, either. Yes, Koscheck got a KO win after landing a head-kick from hell. Still, Hazelett's stand-up that night was a revelation, and his BJJ is top-of-the-food-chain. He'll use one or the other to finish McCrory.
Todd Martin: McCrory has utilized his height and reach throughout his welterweight career, but it won’t be nearly pronounced against Hazelett. Hazelett will be able to hold his own standing, making it easier for him to get the takedown and secure a submission victory.
Ben Fowlkes: If you can’t get behind a guy like McCrory, I’m not sure I want to know you. He looks like he belongs in his mother’s basement building his own ham radio, and yet he continually surprises people. The only question is whether he’s as focused on his MMA career as he needs to be. Gono was a little too seasoned for him, but Hazelett isn’t. He’s the next to get finished by “The Barn Cat.”
Lightweight Bout:
JORGE GURGEL
vs.
AARON RILEY
"JG"
Nickname
n/a
31
Age
27
5-9
Height
5-8
12-4-0 (3-3-0 UFC)
Record
26-10-1 (0-2-0 UFC)
0
KO/TKOs
6
9 (0 UFC)
Submissions
12
1 loss
Streak
2 wins
lost to Cole Miller UFC 86 7/5/2008
Last Fight
def. Steve Claveau Xtreme MMA 5 9/13/2008
Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Riley is a veteran of the game with a record stretching back to 1997, but never seems to win the big fights. Gurgel has had a wishy-washy UFC career, never stringing together enough consecutive wins to emerge from the prelims. He had a great fight with Cole Miller in July, but wound up getting submitted. I think Gurgel will be hungry for a win and will utilize his jiu-jitsu to take care of Riley via third-round tapout.
Sam Caplan: Gurgel is fighting for the UFC and the event is not in Ohio? The UFC now has over 180 fighters under contract again and cuts could be on the horizon. Having lost two of his last three UFC bouts, Gurgel cannot afford to drop to three losses in four fights, but that's exactly what will happen vs. Riley. This will be Riley's third tour of duty in the UFC after a two-year absence so he's just as hungry as Gurgel. He's also a better all-around mixed martial artist and will TKO Gurgel in the second round.
Gregg Doyel: I keep hearing stories about how tough Riley is -- apparently he had his face demolished in a loss to Yves Edwards, but refused to give up -- but I don't see how he wins this fight. Gurgel is better on the ground, and as tough as Riley may be, he has posted KO wins in just six of his 37 pro fights. Not a good ratio. I see Gurgel surviving on the feet long enough to score points on the ground and win a decision.
Todd Martin: It’s nice to see Aaron Riley back in the UFC. He was involved in an important and exciting UFC fight against Robbie Lawler back in 2002, but drifted away from the organization after that. Both Gurgel and Riley like to have good fights, and this should be a fun, competitive bout. I give Gurgel the narrow edge on the basis of a better jiu jitsu game, but wouldn’t be surprised to see the fight go either way if Gurgel again tries to turn it into a brawl.
Ben Fowlkes: As difficult as it is to pick a guy like Gurgel, who at times seems like he doesn’t really want to be there and at others seems like he just can’t catch a break, this fight is his to lose. Riley’s been around and has lots of experience, but he doesn’t do anything exceptionally well. Gurgel wins a forgettable decision.
Lightweight Bout:
JEREMY STEPHENS
vs.
RAFAEL DOS ANJOS
"Lil' Heathen"
Nickname
n/a
22
Age
24
5-9
Height
5-9
13-3-0 (2-2-0 UFC)
Record
11-2-0 (UFC debut)
9 (1 UFC)
KO/TKOs
1
2 (0 UFC)
Submissions
6
1 loss
Streak
9 wins
lost to Spencer Fisher TUF 7 Finale 6/21/2008
Last Fight
def. Takafumi Otsuka Fury FC 6 7/12/2008
Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Dos Anjos makes his UFC debut having just two losses on his record, both of them decisions. He is almost exclusively a submissions threat with great technique on the ground. Stephens, by contrast, has finished nine opponents via KO/TKO, but two of Stephens' three losses were by submission. It's clear what each fighter must do to win, and I believe Stephens will catch Dos Anjos via TKO in Round 2.
Sam Caplan: Stephens is a good athlete but he doesn't have dos Anjos' pedigree on the ground. Dos Anjos is a fighter to watch and this match was likely made as an attempt to showcase his ability. Dos Anjos via first round submission.
Gregg Doyel: Dos Anjos was called up to the UFC for a reason, and that reason is his black-belt BJJ. Will that be enough to submit a seasoned fighter like Stephens? I don't see it. Dos Anjos will get Stephens into some scary situations, but Stephens will get out of them and do enough damage everywhere else the fight goes to win a decision.
Todd Martin: The debuting Dos Anjos has a good submission game, but I don’t think it is going to be enough here. I see Stephens as the tougher fighter with heavier hands, strong cardio and more overall weapons. He’ll win via TKO.
Ben Fowlkes: If dos Anjos can force Stephens to play his game on the ground, he has a real chance in this one. If he can’t, he’s probably in trouble, and the good ole Octagon jitters won’t help any. Still, I’m picking do Anjos by submission.
Lightweight Bout:
ALVIN ROBINSON
vs.
MARK BOCEK
"Kid"
Nickname
n/a
26
Age
27
5-8
Height
5-8
9-3-0 (1-2-0 UFC)
Record
5-2-0 (1-2-0 UFC)
0
KO/TKOs
1 (0 UFC)
8 (0 UFC)
Submissions
3 (0 UFC)
1 loss
Streak
1 loss
lost to Nate Diaz Fight Night 12 1/23/2008
Last Fight
lost to Mac Danzig UFC 83 4/19/2008
Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: You have to give the edge to Robinson when it comes to standup, but Bocek's got a formidable ground game. Robinson got submitted by Nate Diaz in his last UFC fight, so he's capable of being caught by a superior jiu-jitsu fighter. Bocek may be superior, but he'll have to weather the storm standing first. Bocek can pull it off, and he'll win this via decision.
Sam Caplan: This is another good matchup. Robinson is a great athlete with good jiu-jitsu and Bocek is a good athlete with great jiu-jitsu. I expect a lot of back and forth action but will give the nod to Robinson via unanimous decision because I think he's better than Bocek when it comes to the standup.
Gregg Doyel: Bocek is a world-class grappler, but he strikes me as one of those fighters whose BJJ skills outside the cage don't translate so well once he gets locked inside with another pro fighter. Robinson already has survived one BJJ black belt, Jorge Gurgel, and will do it again when he uses his superior size and strength to grind out a decision victory.
Todd Martin: I’m a believer in Mark Bocek. I’m not sure he’ll be able to submit Alvin Robinson, who is excellent on the ground. But I do think he’ll be the more active, offensive fighter and that he will win this fight.
Ben Fowlkes: Bocek’s record is somewhat deceiving, since he’s faced more tough opponents than just about any 5-2 lightweight out there. He has great takedown defense and is a tough guy to finish. I like him to pull out a decision victory over Robinson, but it could be a surprisingly exciting and competitive bout.
Welterweight Bout:
MATT BROWN
vs.
RYAN THOMAS
"The Immortal"
Nickname
"The Tank Engine"
27
Age
24
6-0
Height
6-0
7-7-0 (1-1-0 UFC)
Record
9-2-0 (0-1-0 UFC)
4 (1 UFC)
KO/TKOs
3
3 (0 UFC)
Submissions
6
1 loss
Streak
1 loss
lost to Dong Hyun Kim UFC 88 9/6/2008
Last Fight
lost to Ben Saunders UFC 87 8/9/2008
Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Brown really could finish this fight with strikes or submissions, but I really think Thomas' only shot is to submit Brown. Brown's lost several fights that way, but he's also worked hard to improve his game and should do fine against a fighter of Thomas' caliber. Brown has more weapons, so despite his taking this fight on short notice, I pick Brown to win this via third-round TKO.
Sam Caplan: Matt Brown is taking this fight on less than two weeks notice, but Brown has been taking fights on short notice all throughout his career (it's a primary reason why his record doesn't reflect his ability). He is no doubt in fighting shape and ready to bring the pain to Thomas, who is coming off a submission loss against Ben Saunders during his UFC debut at UFC 87 in August. Thomas is really good with his submissions but Brown is not easy to submit. And on the feet, Brown has the ability to finish Thomas. I expect Brown to win via second round TKO.
Gregg Doyel: Thomas has one chance against Matt Brown, and that's to get him onto the ground and submit him. But Brown works out regularly with Dustin Hazelett and has evolved with his submission defense, as evidenced by his victory against BJJ whiz Matt Arroyo, and ought to be able to fend off Thomas enough to pound out a victory with a strike stoppage.
Todd Martin: Thomas has a glossy record but didn’t look good in his only UFC fight. Brown has an unimpressive record but looked good in both of his UFC fights. I’ll take the guy who has shown me more, Brown, even if he is taking the fight on short notice.
Ben Fowlkes: If Brown is going to live up to any of the hype he got from teammates and reality show producers on TUF, he absolutely has to win this one and win it decisively. He’s a tough guy with good standup, but he should consider this a career crossroads. Fortunately for him this is a very winnable bout. Brown just needs the appropriate sense of urgency, and I think he takes this via late TKO.
Writer's Prediction Records for 2008:
Ordered from best to worst -- records through Nov. 12, 2008.
Sam Caplan: 111-52 (68%)
Denny Burkholder: 116-59 (66%)
Todd Martin: 114-61 (65%)
Ben Fowlkes: 104-61 (63%)
Gregg Doyel: 101-63 (62%)
About the writers: Denny Burkholder is the MMA and boxing producer and staff writer for CBSSports.com. Sam Caplan is an MMA contributor for CBSSports.com and the publisher of FiveOuncesOfPain.com. Gregg Doyel is a CBSSports.com national columnist and sparring partner for pro boxers and MMA fighters in Cincinnati. Todd Martin has covered mixed martial arts for the Los Angeles Times, Wrestling Observer, SI.com and CBSSports.com. Ben Fowlkes is an MMA contributor for SI.com, CagePotato.com and CBSSports.com.
I'm a big fan of dos Santos but an even bigger fan of Mirko. That being said, I don't see Mirko being able to defend against Cigano's pressure and strikes. This could very well be it for any consideration of Cro Cop as a viable contender.
...(more)
Am I the only one that sincerely hopes that someone...anyone really...puts an end to Gray Maynard's unbeaten run in the UFC? I mean, I have nothing personally against the guy, but he is one of those fighters that puts a crowd to sleep. He
...(more)
Pretty much every realistic look at this fight has Couture winning, which is why I haven't found one "expert" who has picked Nog. The fight is in Couture's hometown, he's fighting a guy who has apparently dropped off in ability, Randy can u
...(more)
Overall the card is pretty thin with two potentially classic battles closing the broadcast. I think Forrest has an excellant shot at shutting down Silva. Silva's quick no doubt about it but after seeing his weigh photos I have to say he l
...(more)
Denny Burkholder: Few are better at exploiting an opponent's weaknesses than Couture, so unless Lesnar can end it quickly with strikes, we're bound to see the true level of Lesnar's abilities exposed in this fight. Couture will force that issue. He'll test Lesnar's chin, his movement, and his clinch work. Lesnar's wrestling is superb and he'll have a significant weight advantage, which matters because it makes him hard to push around. Lesnar could win this, but until I see proof that Couture's age has finally caught up with him, I have to pick Couture via TKO. If he doesn't knock Couture out relatively early, Lesnar will eventually make a costly mistake, and Couture will capitalize on it quickly.
Sam Caplan: Lesnar is a dangerous opponent and is the superior athlete. If he were to win Saturday, it wouldn't surprise me. However, the pick for me is Couture via third round TKO. I just think Couture's intangibles will prove to be the difference over Lesnar's measurables. Couture has too much experience and is a tactical wizard. He'll have the gameplan needed to beat Lesnar, which I believe will consist of using footwork to stay out of position of Lesnar's shot and closing the distance between the two in order to bodylock the 2000 NCAA heavyweight champ and putting him on his back. Once he has Lesnar on his back, I expect Couture to test Lesnar's MMA skills and finish him with punches and elbows inside of Lesnar's guard.
Gregg Doyel: After he re-hydrates, Lesnar is going to have almost 60 pounds of weight on Couture by the time the fight rolls around. Lesnar also will be able to match Couture for control on the ground, and perhaps even top him, given his size advantage. Couture's biggest edge is in the striking game, but Lesnar's reach advantage will make it hard for Couture to capitalize. So how will Couture win? I have no idea. But he will. Because that's what Couture does.
Todd Martin: I’ve vacillated on this fight a lot since it was announced. There are so many questions, from Lesnar’s development to Couture’s age. Ultimately, however, I’m not going to pick against Randy Couture in a fight with such an inexperienced opponent. Couture’s greatest strength is his ability to game plan and exploit the weaknesses of an opponent. Lesnar is still raw, and he has more weaknesses to exploit than most. I think Couture will in particular rely on his clinch game and dirty boxing. He’ll frustrate Lesnar, keep the pressure on, and grind out a win like he has so many times before.
Ben Fowlkes: If this were a three-round fight, I’d like Lesnar’s chances to ride out a decision. But over the course of five rounds the inexperienced Lesnar is bound to give Couture an opening, and “The Natural” is both savvy and resilient enough to wait for it and then capitalize on it when it comes. Lesnar’s big and strong and may push Couture around more than he’s used to, but Couture will stick with him and break Lesnar down for a late TKO victory.
