Head to Head

UFC 96 takes place on Saturday, March 7, at the Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio, airing live on PPV at 10 p.m. ET. In the main event, former UFC light heavyweight champion Quinton "Rampage" Jackson continues his trek back up the ladder of title contention as he battles "The Dean of Mean," Keith Jardine. Also on the card, Gabriel Gonzaga clashes with Shane Carwin in a heavyweight showdown and Matt Hamill takes on Mark Munoz.

To help you get ready for UFC 96, CBSSports.com gives you a complete look at each fight on the card, with analysis from our knowledgeable MMA writers. Take a look, and then discuss your own predictions on the message board at the bottom of this page.

Fighter photos courtesy of UFC.

Light Heavyweight Bout:
	QUINTON JACKSON	vs.	KEITH JARDINE
	"Rampage"	Nickname	"The Dean of Mean"
	30	Age	33
	6-1	Height	6-2
	29-7-0 (4-1-0 UFC)	Record	14-4-1 (6-3-0 UFC)
	14 (3 UFC)	KO/TKOs	6 (2 UFC)
	7 (0 UFC)	Submissions	2 (0 UFC)
	1 win	Streak	1 win
	def. Wanderlei Silva UFC 92 12/27/2008	Last Fight	def. Brandon Vera UFC 89 10/18/2008

Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Jardine is a good, smart fighter whose biggest losses have been to aggressive strikers. As a result, he tends to counter-strike and pick apart those types of fighters, like he did with Chuck Liddell. If this fight lasts beyond the first round, I expect Jardine to brutalize Jackson's lead leg with kicks and to lure Jackson forward. But being stalked by Rampage isn't exactly a walk in the park, and it could backfire tremendously if Jackson finds the mark. Jackson isn't great with jiu-jitsu, but he's a good enough wrestler to keep himself out of those situations against Jardine. This won't be an easy win for Rampage, but I expect him to pull out the TKO in Round 3.	Sam Caplan: Jardine has played the spoiler role well in the past few years, spoiling potential title shots for Forrest Griffin at UFC 66 and Chuck Liddell at UFC 76. Jardine is a counter fighter who apparently has trouble with fighters who employ a blitzkrieg style. Jackson can be aggressive at times, but he is not reckless and isn't going to jump on Jardine from the outset. Look for Jardine to use his brutal leg kicks to exploit Jackson's lack of diversified striking. When it comes to kicks, Jackson does not employ many offensively and is terrible when it comes to defending them. Based on that, I question the logic of this matchup. While I am concerned about a possible upset, I've got to pick Jackson by second round knockout.	Todd Martin: This is a classic “trap” fight. Jackson’s coming off what was likely the most satisfying win of his entire career, and if he wins here his next fight is likely for the light heavyweight title. Moreover, Jardine’s awkward style and in particular his leg kicks could pose significant problems for Jackson. Ultimately, however, I just think Jackson is the better fighter. I see him winning a relatively close standup fight via decision.	Ben Fowlkes: It’s so tempting to pick Jardine here based purely on his track record for winning fights the UFC expects him to lose. But Jackson looked great in his brief moments in the Octagon against Wanderlei Silva and his new camp seems to be giving him exactly what he needs. Jardine is a very good tactical fighter who’ll come in with a smart game plan and stick to it, but once Jackson puts the pressure on him I think the difference in punching power will be apparent. “Rampage” by TKO.	Gary Herman: There’s no way any fighter will underrate Keith Jardine again. After defeating both Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin, Jardine has proven he is a top caliber fighter. Unfortunately, in his losses to Houston Alexander and Wanderlei Silva, Jardine also revealed the blueprint to beating him. The plan is simple: come out aggressive. That is what Jackson does as well as any fighter in the business (see: the Wanderlei Silva fight). Even though Jardine knows the pressure is coming, I don’t think he’ll be able to handle it. Jackson locks in a July title shot with first round KO.

Heavyweight Bout:
	GABRIEL GONZAGA	vs.	SHANE CARWIN
	"Napao"	Nickname	n/a
	29	Age	34
	6-1	Height	6-3
	10-3-0 (6-2-0 UFC)	Record	10-0-0 (2-0-0 UFC)
	4 (4 UFC)	KO/TKOs	5 (2 UFC)
	6 (2 UFC)	Submissions	5 (0 UFC)
	2 wins	Streak	10 wins
	def. Josh Hendricks UFC 91 11/15/2008	Last Fight	def. Neil Wain UFC 89 10/18/2008

Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: There is a lot of hype surrounding Shane Carwin as a potential heavyweight champion, but he hasn't faced a really great opponent yet. Gabriel Gonzaga will be an excellent test to see where Carwin is at, skills wise. Carwin has a perfect record, and he finished every opponent in the first round, most of them with punches. His longest fight was 2:11, and that was his first fight ever. Gonzaga's vulnerability is with overwhelming striking attacks, which plays right into Carwin's hands except for the fact that Gonzaga has never lost in under two rounds. Statistically, it appears Carwin is facing his first multi-round fight vs. Gonzaga, which will test his endurance and mental preparedness more than ever. He'll meet the challenge with a Round 3 TKO of Gonzaga.	Sam Caplan: There are a lot of biographical details that we know about Carwin: he's a Colorado native; he's 34 years old; and he's a former NCAA Division II All-American wrestler and football player. We also know that Carwin is 10-0 overall in his pro MMA career and 2-0 since debuting in the UFC. However, he remains a mystery as a fighter. Oh yes, we will learn just how really good Shane Carwin is on Saturday night, as he will face a legit top ten heavyweight. Carwin needs to put Gonzaga on his back and avoid the triangle. Once in Gonzaga's guard, he needs to make sure he uses good posture and keeps the back of his elbows pressed against Gonzaga's thighs so that he doesn't get caught in a high guard. From there, he needs to ground and pound his way to victory. I think that Carwin's elite athleticism will prove to be too much and that he'll achieve an early second round TKO victory against Gonzaga.	Todd Martin: I see this as a fight where the winner will come out looking really good and the loser will come out looking pretty bad. I acknowledge that Gonzaga could very well overwhelm Carwin with strikes early and expose holes in Carwin’s still developing game. But to me, Gonzaga is a fighter who buckles under pressure. He doesn’t fight well from behind and doesn’t fight well from the bottom. If, as I expect, Carwin gets Gonzaga down early and starts with hard and methodical ground and pound, I expect Gonzaga to crumble. Carwin is the pick via first or second round TKO.	Ben Fowlkes: There’s a lot of hype around Carwin right now and I think it’s mostly justified. The guy is a beast who can give lots of the smaller UFC heavyweights fits. Gonzaga is big and strong enough to hang in there against him, but his wrestling is still suspect. I expect to Carwin to overwhelm him with speed and power, put him on his back, and grind out a late TKO.	Gary Herman: Gonzaga has been on a role since his defeat to Fabricio Werdum, and Carwin has been on a roll since – well – for his entire career. The undefeated Carwin has his first high profile match in the co-main event, and he is in the octagon with a very tough opponent. Gonzaga has great jiu-jitsu and underrated power. Carwin would have been better off working his way up a little slower than this. Nevertheless, Carwin is in awesome shape with great stand up and a good ground game. Carwin’s best chance to win is by wearing down Gonzaga for a late TKO. Gonzaga’s best chance is to catch Carwin with a surprise submission. I expect big things from Carwin down the line, and it starts here. Shane Carwin beats Gonzaga by third round TKO.

Welterweight Bout:
	PETE SELL	vs.	MATT BROWN
	"Drago"	Nickname	"The Immortal"
	26	Age	28
	5-11	Height	6-0
	8-4-0 (2-4-0 UFC)	Record	8-7-0 (2-1-0 UFC)
	0	KO/TKOs	4 (1 UFC)
	3 (1 UFC)	Submissions	4 (1 UFC)
	1 win	Streak	1 win
	def. Josh Burkman UFC 90 10/25/2008	Last Fight	def. Ryan Thomas UFC 91 11/15/2008

Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Sell had lost four UFC fights in a row but was still brought back last fall to fight Josh Burkman. And what do you know? He won. Brown was somewhat anonymous coming off the cast of The Ultimate Fighter but has since shown lots of heart and enough skill to stay afloat in the UFC. Look for Drago to throw lots of bombs and try for a knockout, but I actually think Brown will persevere for a unanimous decision victory.	Sam Caplan: This is a crucial fight for Sell, who is just 2-4 in a UFC career that has been off-and-on dating back to 2004. A former middleweight, the Matt Serra-trained fighter delivered in a win or go home fight against Josh Burkman at UFC 90 this past October. The knockout artist will be looking to take out Brown, who is great at nothing but good at everything. One of the most well-rounded and grittiest fighters in the sport, I expect Brown to take the fight via unanimous decision.	Todd Martin: I was underwhelmed by Matt Brown on the Ultimate Fighter. His fellow fighters talked him up, but I just didn’t see what they saw based on his performances on the show. Well, I’m a convert based on his performances since. He’s tough, he keeps going, and he has good striking to go with good takedown defense. This has all the makings of a brawl, and I see Brown coming out on top.	Ben Fowlkes: I have to admit I was impressed with what I saw from Matt Brown his last time in the Octagon. He was in a tough fight and showed a lot of determination in pulling off the submission. Sell has the edge in experience and quality of opponents, but I think Brown is still improving and has all the tools to surprise him here. Brown via TKO.	Gary Herman: A lot of discussion has been made about this fight making television as opposed to Brandon Vera or Kendall Grove’s fight. However, the simple reason the fight made the pay-per-view is it is expected to be entertaining. It may not deliver at "fight of the night" standards, but Sell and Brown will stand and bang for the entire match. Sell has the edge in power, and Brown has better technique. Power will overcome technique. Sell wins by unanimous decision.

Light Heavyweight Bout:
	MATT HAMILL	vs.	MARK MUNOZ
	"The Hammer"	Nickname	"Filipino Wrecking Machine"
	32	Age	31
	6-1	Height	6-0
	5-2-0 (5-2-0 UFC)	Record	5-0-0 (UFC debut)
	4 (4 UFC)	KO/TKOs	3
	0	Submissions	0
	1 win	Streak	5 wins
	def. Reese Andy UFC 92 12/27/2008	Last Fight	def. Ricardo Barros WEC 37 12/3/2008

Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: I'm very intrigued by this fight. Munoz is a future star in the light heavyweight division, and he's undefeated. He's got elite-level wrestling and power in his fists, but that also describes Matt Hamill. For perhaps the first time in his career, Hamill faces an opponent here that he might not be able to out-wrestle. The undeniable advantage for Hamill is UFC-level experience against quality opponents, but with his primary weapons neutralized, how much will that matter? Hamill might be forced to do something that he's never done before, and win by submission. That's my prediction -- Hamill via tapout, Round 2 -- but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Munoz win this.	Sam Caplan: Munoz is making the move to the Octagon after going 2-0 for Zuffa-owned World Extreme Cagefighting. As high as Munoz's upside is though, one has to wonder if he might not have benefitted by the WEC keeping its 205 pound division in business for a little longer. While he's an amazing athlete, five fights as a pro is not an ideal amount to have when making your UFC debut. Fortunately, UFC Vice President of Talent Relations Joe Silva has found a great matchup for him in Hamill. Hamill does a lot of the same things that Munoz does, except that Munoz does them better. Munoz also is a better tactical fighter and should have a signfiicant cardio advantage. Based on that, I am picking Munoz via unanimous decision.	Todd Martin: This is no easy fight for Matt Hamill. Munoz is a tough, high level wrestler who may be able to out grapple Hamill. The tables have turned for Hamill, who will now look to exploit his greater experience and overall MMA game to defeat Munoz. I think he will be able to do so, and that this will resemble his most recent fight against Reese Andy. However, I think Munoz is better than Andy and that this fight will be closer than that one.	Ben Fowlkes: How Hamill goes from facing and defeating an experienced fighter like Reese Andy to taking on WEC transfer Munoz is a mystery to me. Maybe Munoz has more for him than meets the eye, but his 5-0 record against nobody who matters makes me think he’s in for a tough night here. Hamill via TKO.	Gary Herman: Munoz is making the move to the UFC after WEC folded the light heavyweight division. Munoz put on very entertaining fights in recording two knockouts in the WEC. Matt Hamill, however, is a big step up for Munoz. Rich Franklin overwhelmed Hamill, but besides that fight, Hamill has looked very good in all of his other matches. Overcoming the handicap of not being able to hear, Hamill is a great story for all of MMA. The story gets a few more pages here. Even though Munoz has a realistic chance to win, Matt Hamill uses his ever improving stand-up to record the second round knockout in a good fight.

Lightweight Bout:
	GRAY MAYNARD	vs.	JIM MILLER
	"Bully"	Nickname	n/a
	29	Age	25
	5-8	Height	5-8
	6-0-1 (4-0-1 UFC)	Record	13-1-0 (2-0-0 UFC)
	1 (1 UFC)	KO/TKOs	1 (0 UFC)
	0	Submissions	9 (1 UFC)
	4 wins	Streak	8 wins
	def. Rich Clementi UFC 90 10/25/2008	Last Fight	def. Matt Wiman UFC Fight for the Troops 12/10/2008

Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: The closest Gray Maynard has come to losing is the time he knocked himself silly by inadvertantly DDTing himself as he slammed Rob Emerson. But otherwise, he's been using his superior wrestling and athleticism to control the pace and direction of every fight. Maynard also has power in his hands, making him a growing all-around threat with every passing fight. Miller's only MMA loss was to another strong wrestler in Frankie Edgar (who Maynard defeated last year). I think Maynard is prepared to defend against Miller's jiu-jitsu and will win on points, unanimously.	Sam Caplan: You have a fighter in Miller with tremendous submissions and good wrestling who is matched up against a fighter in Maynard who is a tremendous wrestler with good submissions. I've long contended that Miller will eventually emerge as a top ten lightweight. The Jersey-based fighter is 2-0 since coming over to the UFC from the IFL and has recorded notable wins over David Baron and Matt Wiman. But as big of a supporter as I am of Miller, Gray Maynard is simply a bad matchup. He's not just a bad matchup for Miller, he's apparently a bad matchup for everyone as the UFC has a great deal of trouble trying to secure opponents for him. Size will be a factor in Maynard winning via unanimous decision.	Todd Martin: It’s old school wrestling vs. jiu jitsu here. Think Mark Coleman and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Maynard will be able to control the tempo and pace of the fight with his wrestling ability. The question is whether Jim Miller will find a way to catch him. I think very highly of the Miller brothers, but I think Maynard is just too tough and savvy with his ground defense. That adds up to a Maynard decision victory.	Ben Fowlkes: If you don’t like ground fighting, you’re going to hate this one. But for hardcore fans this has the potential to be a match-up of tomorrow’s top lightweights. We’ve already seen that there aren’t too many guys who can outwrestle Maynard, but Miller has the submission skills, the pure athleticism, and the all-around attack to really find out what else “The Bully” has in his toolbox. Not much, I expect. Miller via submission.	Gary Herman: Maynard is a very difficult opponent to beat. He has tremendous wrestling skills, and he doesn't take too many chances in his fights. Miller is a talented submission fighter who will put on an exciting fight. It will be interesting to see if he can get one out of Maynard. As a submission fighter, Miller poses the biggest threat for someone with Maynard’s wrestling skill. Once Maynard takes Miller down, Maynard has to be fully aware of all the submission attempts that are coming. Will Maynard be able to do that for fifteen minutes? I believe he will. Maynard keeps the undefeated streak alive with another unanimous decision win.

Welterweight Bout:
	TAMDAN McCRORY	vs.	RYAN MADIGAN
	"The Barn Cat"	Nickname	"The Lion"
	22	Age	31
	6-4	Height	6-0
	10-2-0 (2-2-0 UFC)	Record	5-0-0 (UFC debut)
	6 (0 UFC)	KO/TKOs	3
	3 (1 UFC)	Submissions	2
	1 loss	Streak	5 wins
	lost to Dustin Hazelett UFC 91 11/15/2008	Last Fight	def. Rick Thompson Close Quarters Combat 12/13/2008

Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: A kickboxer by trade, Madigan did a tour of duty with Chuck Norris' World Combat League in addition to his MMA experience. He's a decent striker, but it's a safe bet that Madigan will be in big trouble the second McCrory takes him to the canvas. McCrory will also have a reach advantage and the ever-important Octagon experience on his side. Unless McCrory does something stupid like drop his hands and get KO'd, look for "The Barn Cat" to represent the Bomb Squad with a win via first-round tapout.	Sam Caplan: Orginally scheduled to be an exciting matchup between welterweight prospects Ben Saunders and Dustin Hazelett, injuries reduced this matchup to Tamdan McCrory vs. newcomer Ryan Madigan. Madigan is undefeated but it remains to be seen whether he's truly ready for the UFC. His victories have been accumulated against inferior competition, as his five opponents have a combined record of 15-18. After beginning his career 9-0, McCrory has experienced some growing pains in losing two out of his last three fights. However, look for the Cortland, New York native to rebound from his UFC 91 loss to Hazelett and win via first round submission.	Todd Martin: Madigan is in for his UFC initiation. His undefeated record on smaller shows won’t fully prepare him for his first time on the bigger stage and against the tougher competition. McCrory has already dealt with that precise situation. He’s comfortable now, and I expect him to hand Madigan his first loss.	Ben Fowlkes: McCrory was a little outmatched in his last outing but he’s still young and still improving. Madigan is making his UFC debut, which right there lowers his odds of winning, and McCrory will be a tough first opponent for him. McCrory via submission.	Gary Herman: McCrory against Madigan pits two talented young fighters against one another. McCrory is 2-2 in his career. The two wins are over Pete Spratt and Luke Cummo. McCrory has a great submission game and decent stand-up. For Madigan, the fight is his UFC debut after running off five straight victories to start his career. Madigan has mainly fought lower tier opposition, but none of the fighters made it to the third round with him. Madigan also has good all-around skills. Madigan could have a long UFC career, but it will begin with a loss. McCrory wins a close fight by unanimous decision.

Middleweight Bout:
	KENDALL GROVE	vs.	JASON DAY
	"Da Spyder"	Nickname	"Dooms"
	26	Age	29
	6-6	Height	6-1
	9-5-1 (4-2-0 UFC)	Record	17-7-0 (1-1-0 UFC)
	1 (0 UFC)	KO/TKOs	8 (1 UFC)
	6 (2 UFC)	Submissions	8 (0 UFC)
	1 win	Streak	1 loss
	def. Evan Tanner TUF 7 Finale 6/21/2008	Last Fight	lost to Michael Bisping UFC 85 6/7/2008

Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Grove has lost two of his last three fights, both losses coming by KO/TKO. In fact, nearly all of Grove's career losses were due to strikes. Despite the fact that Grove has a reach advantage against virtually all of his opponents, he's simply prone to getting overwhelmed by an aggressive striker with some power. Day needs to exploit that and keep this fight off the ground, where Grove would fare much better. I think Grove has improved, but I think Day is slightly underrated. Day wins via TKO, Round 3.	Sam Caplan: Like Grove, Day has not fought since June due to injury. Currently sporting a lifetime record of 1-1 in the UFC, the Canadian fighter made a strong Octagon debut last April at UFC 83 after scoring a first round TKO over Alan Belcher. However, he looked completely overmatched against Michael Bisping at UFC 85, losing via first round TKO. Day won't be overmatched vs. Grove, however, if Grove brings his A-game, he should have little trouble walking away with his arm raised. I've got to go with Grove via unanimous decision.	Todd Martin: Kendall Grove throughout his career has done well with wrestlers and submission artists, but he has struggled mightily against heavy-handed strikers. Grove just doesn’t have much of a chin, and if it gets tested he’s in trouble. I think UFC recognizes this pattern, and is giving him Day specifically to see if Grove will be able to reverse the trend. Unfortunately, I don’t see him doing so. Day via TKO.	Ben Fowlkes: Grove has never really lived up to even the mediocre hype following his “Ultimate Fighter” victory, and his last win against the late Evan Tanner wasn’t terribly impressive either. Day is a better fighter than people give him credit for, and if he shows up in shape and with a good game plan I see him taking this one via decision.	Gary Herman: Many people were surprised this fight didn’t make the pay-per-view. Why? Grove has won once in his last three times, and Day hasn’t won a fight in close to a year. Early on, Grove showed a lot of potential after winning the Ultimate Fighter. He’s always had a strong work ethic, and he looked very good in his last fight when he defeated Evan Tanner. Day is in the fight to make sure it is exciting, but he just doesn’t have the skills for Grove. Grove looks good in taking the second round submission.

Light Heavyweight Bout:
	TIM BOETSCH	vs.	JASON BRILZ
	"The Barbarian"	Nickname	"Hitman"
	28	Age	33
	6-0	Height	5-11
	8-2-0 (2-1-0 UFC)	Record	16-1-1 (1-0-0 UFC)
	5 (2 UFC)	KO/TKOs	5 (1 UFC)
	3 (0 UFC)	Submissions	9 (0 UFC)
	1 win	Streak	9 wins
	def. Michael Patt UFC 88 9/6/2008	Last Fight	def. Brad Morris Fight Night 15 9/17/2008

Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Brilz has good wrestling and submissions on his side for this fight. Boetsch should be ready to meet that challenge, though. In his loss to Matt Hamill last year, Boetsch was taken down, but he defended well enough on the canvas to cause a stalemate, and Hamill's a better wrestler than Brilz. As far as standup goes, duking it out with Boetsch is probably the last thing Brilz wants to do. Which means a submission is Brilz's best chance for victory, and I don't see that happening early. Nor do I see Boetsch going into deep water without landing enough big punches and knees to score a TKO. Boetsch wins, Round 2.	Sam Caplan: Boetsch will have the wrestling advantage but Brilz has better submissions. The standup might be a wash, because while Boetsch has tremendous power, his Jeet Kune Do background doesn't always translate well to MMA. In a matchup that is almost too close to call, the pick here is Brilz by split decision.	Todd Martin: Jason Brilz has a glossy record, but it’s padded with some mediocre opposition. Boetsch will be no pushover, as he has strong takedown defense and looks to knock your head off. Brilz is willing to trade, but I think he’ll get he worst of it and Boetsch will prevail.	Ben Fowlkes: Brilz seems like he could hang around in the UFC and make an impact…eventually. Trouble is he’s fighting a beast of a man in Boetsch, whose only two losses come to Vladimir Matyushenko and Matt Hamill. Boetsch is a bit of a throwback, just a big, strong, tough as nails wrestler, though there are still some holes in his game. It ought to be a close one, but I like Boetsch via late TKO based on raw power.	Gary Herman: Brilz is a pretty good fighter that has been around for a while. He holds notable victories over Alex Schoenauer and Jason MacDonald. He has good power and underrated submissions. On the other hand, Boetsch is a stand-up fighter who is coming straight ahead all the time. Brilz will not have to look for Boetsch. This should be an exciting slugfest for as long as it lasts, which won’t be long. I expect this fight to sneak onto the pay-per-view. Brilz takes the fight by first round knockout.

Light Heavyweight Bout:
	BRANDON VERA	vs.	MICHAEL PATT
	"The Truth"	Nickname	n/a
	31	Age	34
	6-2	Height	6-0
	9-3-0 (5-3-0 UFC)	Record	12-3-0 (0-1-0 UFC)
	6 (3 UFC)	KO/TKOs	1
	1 (1 UFC)	Submissions	9
	1 loss	Streak	1 loss
	lost to Keith Jardine UFC 89 10/18/2008	Last Fight	lost to Tim Boetsch UFC 88 9/6/2008

Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Vera's UFC career is on life support right now, and Michael Patt could pull the plug with an upset here. Vera once looked like a future champion, but it's been a long, long time since we saw that guy in the cage. He's lost three of his last four fights, and was underwhelming in the bout he won, against Reese Andy. It's a small consolation that his losses were to solid competition (Tim Sylvia, Keith Jardine, Fabricio Werdum). The UFC would like him to succeed so they can market him in the Philippines, too, which is another point in his favor. But if Vera loses here, it becomes impossible to justify his $100K+$100K salary. He can do it. Vera wins by TKO, Round 1.	Sam Caplan: Vera will look to begin his comeback campaign against Patt, a member of Kerry Schall's Meat Truck Inc., Patt, a native of nearby Dayton, also finds himself in a must-win situation, as he'll be dropped from the UFC roster if he falls to 0-2. Patt is a credible veteran but he will be no match for Vera's strong kickboxing skills and won't be able to match his underrated jiu-jitsu and wrestling ability. The only fighter that can beat Vera in this match is Vera himself. I think Vera stops beating himself and wins via second round TKO.	Todd Martin: Vera doesn’t just need a win in this fight. He needs an impressive win, or he risks going from one-time heavyweight prospect to light heavyweight also-ran. It seems like everyone may have jumped off the Vera bandwagon, but I’m still a believer in the guy. I think he’ll rebound with a quick win here that will get him back on the right track. His standup will be the difference.	Ben Fowlkes: If Brandon Vera can’t win this fight he ought to be immediately dropped from the UFC, and probably will be. Chances are he realizes this, and with the stakes that high we might see the old “Truth” once again. I’m expecting him to come right after Patt and try to put him away early, a strategy that will likely be successful. Vera via first-round TKO.	Gary Herman: This fight is a last ditch effort to save the career of Vera. The once-promising fighter who once proclaimed that he would win the titles at both heavyweight and light heavyweight is now barely an also-ran in the light heavyweight division. He’s lost three of his last four, and the one win was the least impressive performance of the four. At this point, all I can say is that Vera had good kickboxing skills earlier in his career. Patt is only getting another fight with the UFC because he took his first fight on short notice (a first round loss to Tim Boetsch). Vera has to win here. Doesn’t he? Vera takes the match-up by second round TKO.

Lightweight Bout:
	AARON RILEY	vs.	SHANE NELSON
	n/a	Nickname	"Sugar"
	28	Age	25
	5-8	Height	5-9
	27-10-1 (1-2-0 UFC)	Record	11-3-0 (1-0-0 UFC)
	5 (0 UFC)	KO/TKOs	1 (0 UFC)
	13 (0 UFC)	Submissions	3 (0 UFC)
	3 wins	Streak	7 wins
	def. Jorge Gurgel UFC 91 11/15/2008	Last Fight	def. George Roop TUF 8 Finale 12/13/2008

Writers' Picks
Denny Burkholder: Nelson didn't look particularly impressive in beating George Roop by decision in his UFC debut. Nelson was able to take Roop down and attempt submissions, but he couldn't finish Roop... and Aaron Riley won't be as easy to push around as Roop was. Riley is aggressive and powerful, and he will have a huge advantage in striking. If it goes to the mat, Nelson has a shot due to his jiu-jitsu, but Riley can handle him there, too. Riley wins via TKO, Round 3.	Sam Caplan: Currently on his third tour of duty with the UFC, the rugged and experienced Riley earned his first win inside of the Octagon at UFC 91 this past November when he recorded a unanimous decision win over Jorge Gurgel that knocked Gurgel out of the UFC. With previous UFC losses against Spencer Fisher and Robbie Lawler, the 28-year old journeyman will look win his fourth consecutive fight and keep his spot in the UFC. It's hard to break down this matchup, as Nelson has the better jiu-jitsu yet Riley is stronger and more aggressive. In the end, I believe Riley's experience and versatility will prove to be the difference and lead to a second round TKO victory over Nelson.	Todd Martin: The rugged veteran Aaron Riley has fought a who’s who of the 155 pound division. Nelson, by contrast, has fought mostly low quality Hawaiian opposition. I see Riley dominating the fight standing and on the ground, and sending Nelson on his way out of the UFC.	Ben Fowlkes: More people might know who Nelson is based on his antics as Junie Browning’s sidekick on TUF, but that doesn’t mean he’s the better fighter. Riley has more experience and has faced more quality opponents and I think he takes this one without too much trouble. Riley via submission.	Gary Herman: Two decision fighters set to square off in a fight that has very little chance of making it to television. Riley is a well-traveled veteran who recently won fight of the night honors in a victory over Jorge Gurgel. He’ll come forward looking to press the action to try and make the fight entertaining. Nelson, who trains with BJ Penn, has fought mainly in Hawaii against lower-level competition. This fight is a big step up for Nelson, which isn’t saying much for his other opposition. Riley wins the fight by unanimous decision.

About the writers:
Denny Burkholder is the MMA and boxing producer and staff writer for CBSSports.com.
Sam Caplan is an MMA contributor for CBSSports.com and the publisher of FiveOuncesOfPain.com.
Todd Martin has covered mixed martial arts for the Los Angeles Times, Wrestling Observer, SI.com and CBSSports.com.
Ben Fowlkes is an MMA contributor for SI.com, CagePotato.com and CBSSports.com.
Gary Herman is an MMA contributor for CBSSports.com and other publications.