Ex-Cup champ Kenseth in vulnerable situation one race before Chase

Let's be honest. The race to determine the Chase for the Sprint Cup championship field isn't as close as some of the pre-race hype would have you believe.

Yes, only four drivers have locked up a spot in the field of 12 heading into Saturday night's 'regular season' finale at Richmond International Raceway.

But in reality the first 11 positions aren't going to change if past history is used as a barometer.

• Cup: Chase clinch scenarios

That leaves the 12th and final coveted transfer spot up for grabs and the battle between Matt Kenseth to hold his position, and Brian Vickers and Kyle Busch trying to storm their way past him should make for some dramatic moments under the lights in Richmond.

While it would take more than a minor slip-up for Greg Biffle to fall out of the Chase from 11th, or Mark Martin to plummet down from 10th, Kenseth doesn't have much of a safety net.

He's only 20 points ahead of Vickers while Busch sits 37 behind as the series returns to the 3/4-mile track.

So let's size up the three drivers trying to earn the coveted last invitation to the championship season in our tale of the tape:

Matt Kenseth: He started the year with a bang, winning the first two races of the season at Daytona and Fontana. But since late February the former series champion's season has been more of a fizzle. Consistent enough to stay within striking distance of making the Chase and running for a second title, Kenseth hasn't really been in contention for a checkered flag in more than four months. His Richmond track record is nothing to write home about; he sports an average finish of 16.7 there over his career. He was 39th in this race a year ago and although he finished 13th at RIR back in May, Kenseth will have a lot to overcome in order to not get knocked off the bubble.

Kyle Busch, 37 points behind 12th, has the best average finish (6.1) at Richmond among active drivers. (Getty Images)

Brian Vickers: The NASCAR world is still buzzing about Vickers' team changing a broken axle on pit road last week in Atlanta and allowing the 83 team to notched a top-10 finish. That kept Vickers' Chase hopes alive and continued an impressive story for the TBR organization in a year that has included its first win. But like Kenseth, Vickers has not fared well at Richmond during his Sprint Cup career. He has a dismal 27.8 average finish and since joining TRB, 15th place is his best run.

Kyle Busch: If ever a track was made for Busch it might be the tight, short track of Richmond. Busch has excelled at RIR since becoming a Sprint Cup Series regular and leads all active drivers with an average finish of 6.1, which includes a win in May and only two appearances outside the top 10 in nine career starts. His bad outing in Atlanta last week has put Busch in an all-or-nothing box Saturday night, but it couldn't come at a better track for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver.

On paper, it's a slam dunk that Busch will find his way into the postseason and Kenseth will miss the Chase for the first time since its inception.

Garage chatter

The rescheduled "Prelude to the Dream" charity All-Star Race is set Wednesday night at Ohio's Eldora Speedway. The 23-driver lineup won't include Carl Edwards or Jeff Gordon, both nursing injuries, but will find Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Kasey Kahne, Jimmie Johnson and others running a 30-lap main event on the historic half-mile dirt track.

Danica Patrick's decision to try her hand at NASCAR took another twist last week when Tony Stewart told reporters the open-wheel star has indeed asked his advice on a potential move to stock car racing. Patrick is reportedly eyeing a deal that would keep her in the IRL at Andretti Green Racing while putting together a 20 to 22 race schedule of Nationwide, Truck Series and ARCA events to help her learn to drive a full-fendered vehicle before attempting a Sprint Cup effort. Don't be surprised to see Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s JR Motorsports Nationwide team become part of the mix as Junior and Patrick share sponsorship ties with GoDaddy.com

The 2010 Sprint Cup schedule is set to be released and a more standard lineup of start times will reportedly accompany the new slate. Most races will employ a 1 p.m. ET start with some West Coast events taking a 4 p.m. ET green flag. Night races will begin at 7:30 p.m. ET. Many fans and track promoters have asked NASCAR and its TV partners to utilize standardized start times in an effort to boost ratings.