Strategy is key at Richmond in final race before Chase

Three distinct strategies will play out in Saturday night's Chevy Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond International Raceway.

Drivers locked into the Chase will simply try to win the race and grab the 10 bonus points to help their seeding when the playoffs begin.

Those still within the top 12 but without a position secured will more than likely take the conservative route.

•  Martin wins pole | Lineup | Chase standings | Clinch scenarios

And the guys outside the cutoff will go all out to race their way into the Chase lineup.

Brian Vickers and Kyle Busch are in that group.

B/R: Would anyone throw the race?

Busch finds himself 37 points behind Matt Kenseth for the final transfer position, despite being tied for the series lead in wins (4) with Mark Martin.

That means he will have to not only have a good finish Saturday night but also get some help for any hopes of crashing the Chase party.

"It's going to be tough, though, because not only do we have to beat the 83 [Vickers], but we also got to beat the 17 [Kenseth]," Busch said. "We need those guys to finish worse than 25th or something like that. I mean, it's going to be hard. It's definitely not going to be easy."

"All we can do is do the best we can do. If we win the race or if we top-10 or even 14th, we did all we could do. That's all we're gonna have. It's not going to be Richmond that keeps us out; it's going to be the rest of the year that we've had our struggles that's going to be what kept us from being in the Chase."

A preseason favorite by many to challenge for the championship, Busch has had a season full of successes and problems as well.

The up-and-down performance is something Busch knows has to be rectified for his team to contend for more wins as well as a possible title.

"Every season's different, that's for sure," Busch said. "This season, the way it's gone, has kind of been a struggle. But, you know, a lot of people picked us to be the champions this year because of the year we had last year."

"We fell off in the Chase a little bit. But for some reason we just haven't been able to hit our stride. We need to get back to being able to be consistent week in and week out. Even during a race, being consistent."

Poll Who's most likely to miss the Chase? 15% Matt Kenseth   33% Brian Vickers   52% Kyle Busch   Total Votes: 124

Vickers has been very consistent this year, enough to find himself within striking distance of the championship field.

Only 20 points behind Kenseth for 12th, Vickers has an idea of how his team will approach Saturday night's race but realizes strategies will have to change as the race wears on.

"I think our strategy is going to essentially be to gain the most amount of points possible," Vickers said. "We can't get tied up in what everyone is doing. I'd be lying if I didn't say we're not going to stay on top of it and be aware of it, no different than Atlanta. When I was racing with Matt and Kyle, I knew I was also racing with guys for a spot in the Chase."

"The best thing that we can do, the most important thing we can do, is to not make a mistake, not have a bad finish, but we need to have a good one. We sat on the pole earlier this year. Hopefully we can do that again [and] lead a lap, get five bonus points, try to win the race, collect as many points as possible, and the rest is going to be up to our competitors."

Who's hot

Kyle Busch: Won the 2009 spring Richmond race and led 53 laps in the event. Busch has led 398 laps in nine starts at the track and has seven top-five finishes, including three runner-ups.

Denny Hamlin: Three top-five finishes in seven starts with his best finish (second) coming in his track debut in 2006. The Virginia native has led laps in every start for a total of 600 and led a race-high 381 laps in spring of 2008 but finished 24th; average finish is 9.6 with two pole positions (2008 and 2006).

Kevin Harvick: Won this event in 2006 but finished 34th in May, breaking an eight-race top 10 streak. Harvick has posted a 12.8 average finish in 17 starts.

Who's not

Brian Vickers: Won the pole for 2004 and '09 spring races and combined to lead 53 laps in those events. Vickers finished 15th in the spring but has posted a 25.8 average finish with Team Red Bull.

Jamie McMurray: Worst non-restrictor-plate track on the circuit based on a 25.5 average finish. McMurray did score his third top 10 (seventh) in 13 starts in May.

Matt Kenseth: Nine top-10 finishes in 18 starts. Kenseth led 192 laps in eight of his starts but has finished outside the top 10 in his past three. His average finish is 18.2 in five Chase cutoff races at Richmond.

Make a note

• Ryan Newman has posted a 5.8 average finish on short tracks in 2009.

• Clint Bowyer has recorded an average finish of 10.4 in five races with the COT at Richmond.

• Jeff Burton has a 4.5 average finish in his past two starts at Richmond.

• Jimmie Johnson has won the past two September events at Richmond.

• Johnson, Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and semi-retired Terry Labonte head the Richmond wins list among active drivers with three victories each.

• Busch's triumph earlier this season at the Virginia track in a Toyota broke a six-race win streak for Chevrolet.