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Brian De Los Santos

Power Rankings: Bad finishes mean bad news for Hamlin's Chase chances

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Updated Oct. 12

Heading into the Chase, Denny Hamlin was as hot as anybody.

Throughout the summer, he asserted himself as a legitimate title threat, culminating with a victory at Richmond in the final race of the regular season.

He kept up his momentum with a second-place run at New Hampshire, but then came Dover, a track at which he has notoriously struggled.

Final Chase standings
DriverPointsDeficit
1. Jimmie Johnson6,652---
2. Mark Martin6,511-141
3. Jeff Gordon6,473-179
4. Kurt Busch6,446-206
5. Denny Hamlin5,335-317
Complete Chase | Traditional points

Something had to give. He was either going to come through with a solid performance, ending the hex the track has had upon him and the 11 team or he was going stumble and dig himself an early hole in the Chase.

It turned out to be the latter as a 22nd-place run at Dover ended a streak of seven consecutive top 10s.

While one bad finish isn't impossible to overcome, when you're dealing with Jimmie Johnson and a 48 team that rarely makes mistakes during the Chase, it's not a comfortable position to be in. It left Hamlin and the 11 team with little room for error.

Hamlin rebounded well enough, with a fifth-place finish at Kansas keeping him afloat, but Sunday at California he tripped again, the second poor finish he just couldn't afford.

What made it all worse is that he was actually leading the race when he made the error that led to his demise and likely ended any hope of winning the title this season. As the leader on a restart on Lap 190, Hamlin chose to start on the outside lane. Thinking he had Juan Pablo Montoya cleared when the race went green, he quickly tried to dive low, only to make contact with the nose of Montoya's 42 machine, which sent him spinning into the pit road retaining wall.

Racing can be a fickle sport. A split second is all it takes to send a driver from the highest of highs to the lowest of lows. For his part, Hamlin offered no excuses, taking full responsibility for the wreck that relegated him to a 37th-place finish.

"It was just a dumb mistake," Hamlin said.

How long are the odds of Hamlin coming back to win the title? Consider that in the five years a Chase champion has been crowned, Jimmie Johnson in 2006 is the only one who managed to win the championship with more than one finish outside the top 20.

Power Rankings after California:

POWER RANKINGS
CurrentDriverPrevious
1Greg Biffle1
Won the pole and led 74 laps on Saturday night but faded down the stretch to finish 12th. Still hanging on to the Sprint Cup Series points lead but by only a pair over Roush Fenway Racing teammate Matt Kenseth.
2Matt Kenseth2
Climbed to within a whisker of the points lead with a sixth-place finish on Saturday night. Now the world awaits the announcement regarding the potential change of Kenseth's car number. Relax Kenseth fans, the 17 isn't going anywhere.
3Jimmie Johnson7
Roared back up the rankings and the points standings with his first win since October of last season and in the process gave team owner Rick Hendrick historic Sprint Cup victory number 200. Johnson's history has been to bunch up wins once he gets to victory lane.
4Kyle Busch3
Was in the mix for a second Darlington win but wound up settling for a fourth-place finish. Like Johnson Busch has returned to form in recent weeks and delivered on the expectations most had for the No. 18 team this season.
5Denny Hamlin5
Was behind the wheel of one of the coolest looking cars in recent weeks with a Cale Yarborough-inspired retro paint scheme on the No. 11 Toyota. Looked almost Yarborough-like at Darlington for a while but didn't have enough mustard to run down Johnson for the win.
6Martin Truex Jr.6
Wasn't exactly pleased with his team for some suspect pit work at one point of the race but kept his composure and battled back for yet another finish inside the top five.
7Dale Earnhardt Jr.4
It was a struggle for Junior to just finish 17th. Had a decent car early in the night but handling issues plagued the No. 88 squad, and you can be sure crew chief Steve Letarte won't bring the same set-up back to Darlington next season.
8Clint Bowyer8
A rather quiet night for the Michael Waltrip Racing driver with an 11th-place finish. Still not bad when an "off night" can be within a hair of a top-10 run.
9Tony Stewart12
An interesting night for Smoke, who was very strong in spurts but had to fight through handling issues, a broken clutch and a fuel pressure problem during the 500 miles. Pretty solid performance to deal with all that and still come home third.
10Carl Edwards11
A seventh-place finish and another top 10, but now that Johnson's 17-race winless drought has ended will the questions mount for Edwards on his not visiting Victory Lane for more than a year?
11Kevin Harvick10
Was the focal point of Darlington's promotional campaign trying to capitalize on Harvick's tussle with Kyle Busch last season. But overall a very quiet night for the No. 29 Chevrolet driver who left Darlington with a rather mediocre 16th-place finish.
12Brad Keselowski9
Hasn't performed well at Darlington during his Sprint Cup career and that remained intact on Saturday with a 15th-place Southern 500 effort. A downer for the Blue Deuce after Keselowski's Talladega win last weekend.
13Ryan Newman13
Was headed for a better night than what the results show when Newman got caught up in the aftermath of Kurt Busch's spin late in the race when he got punted from behind. The frustration overflowed once the checkered flag flew with both teams getting involved in a scuffle as well as Newman and Busch exchanging harsh words.
14Paul Menard15
A decent day with a 13th-place finish for the Richard Childress Racing driver. Continues to hang around on the fringe of the top 10 in the points standings.
15Kasey KahneNR
Has finally completed the turnaround from his dismal start to the season and is knocking down consistent finishes on a weekly basis. Kahne's eighth-place run was his fifth straight top-10 finish.
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