Picks against the spread analysis for Friday, November 1st
Thursday results: Told you I didn't want to go near either of these games. Bulls were looking good to push it to -8 with two minutes to go pending some nice free throw bumpage, but their offense just melted again. The Bulls are offically in the red zone for "can't trust them to cover because their offense is a spineless mass of gelatin."
Meanwhile, the Warriors hung, but never could make the final push because they kept giving the ball to the other guys. If I'd known Steph Curry was going to forget how to dribble I would have made them the lock.
0-2 YTD: 5-13-1. (Correction from yesterday, I landed the Pacers line I thought I missed.)
LOCK IT UP:
PICK: Hawks cover
If there's one thing we've learned in the past three days outside of Chicago, it's that home openers are pretty close to locks for the home team. The Hawks are coming off a frustrating loss to Dallas where they were in the game until the fourth quarter and then let go of the rope. Now they're home, and facing a Raptors team that screwed around with a horrible Boston team for four quarters.
DANGER WILL ROBINSON, DANGER
GAME: Thunder at WolvesT
FAVORITE: Wolves (-2)
PICK: STAY AWAY!
Wait, the Wolves team that went to overtime vs. the Magic in their home opener is favored by two against a Western Conference contender, Westbrook or no Westbrook? Wait, this line opened at Thunder -3 and moved five points across the favorite line?
I don't want any part of this. Wolves could run it up, Thunder could blow them out, could be a close game either way, I don't want any part of this. No, no, no no no.
GAME: Pelicans at MagicT
FAVORITE: Pelicans (-4)
PICK: Pelicans cover... but...
Here's the thing. Orlando's 2-0 ATS this season. The Magic are at home after busting the spread on two home openers on the road. Yes, the Magic are due for a letdown but the Pelicans blew a substantial lead vs. the Pacers in their home opener. I'm less concerned about New Orleans winning as I am the backdoor cover. Late run, couple of turnovers, can't you just hear "Afflalo in the corner... GOT IT AND IT'S A 1 POINT GAME!"? Because I can.
The Pistons worked over the Wizards, just smacked them around in their opener. Memphis' home opener, OK, sure. But eight points? For a team that struggles to score 90? Against a team with one of the best frontcourts in the league? In a game that's likely to have a slow pace and low possessions count? Why am I asking so many questions?
Just a weirdo, weird weird line. Now the Grizzlies will blow them out, because Vegas.