Picks against the spread analysis for Friday, Novemer 8th.
Weekend results: Rough weekend, and there were a few that I should have known better. Saturday night's craziness (Boston over Miami?!) sent me one game under .500 on the night, and then I treaded water over the weekend. With some of the back-to-backs starting to affect teams more and some early trends starting to reverse themselves, it's a dangerous time, and I'm just glad to be over .500.
Weekend: 12-13 YTD: 49-45-3.
LOCK IT UP
It's back! Not really because I'm all that confident, but because you really need to have a lock if you're going to do daily pick looks.
This is not at all about the end result of the game, it's all about the number. The Bulls can't score. They will outscore Cleveland, because the Cavs are awful. But even if the Cavs only get to 80, the Bulls need to wind up at 88. And the Cavs have the eighth best defensive efficiency in the league despite their recent struggles. Both teams play middle-of-the-road pace. I just think eight is high.
DANGER WILL ROBINSON, DANGER
The Jazz are the worst team in basketball. The Nugget are the second-worst team in basketball. Utah is at home, desperate for a win. The Nuggets have found an impressive array of ways to lose. There's no way to feel confident here, no matter the talent gap between them.
Is Vegas really buying into this three-game win streak? The matchups don't look good for the Celtics at all, and the Magic have been murderers of the spread all year. Just seems weird that the better team is a dog, regardless of whatever shot Jeff Green hit the other night.
(The Celtics will now cover.)
I've Got A Bad Feeling About ThisJ
The Rockets have been the favorite five times this season. They are -4.6 points vs. the spread in those situations. The Raptors are desperate, and the Rockets have been shaky as all get out for a week.
But man, wouldn't a blow out seem more like what Houston would do here? Maybe Houston's just bad against good teams.... and the Lakers.
Hey, Good Lookin'
GAME: Spurs at Sixers
FAVORITE: Spurs (-6.5)
PICK: Spurs cover, but...
This one's nice either way. A nice, healthy money line, and you've got the Spurs on a back-to-back vs. a team that has wreaked unholy hell against good teams. But the Spurs are just not trustworthy this season, either way. They don't let down when you need them to or take care of business when they should (Phoenix). But it's a healthy line to bet on.