A look at where things stand for the Cavaliers and Warriors as the NBA Finals continue Wednesday with Game 3. Golden State took a commanding 2-0 series lead after a 110-77 victory in Game 2.
The Big Picture
SOMEONE CALL FEMA BECAUSE THIS A DISASTER
The Finals have been a complete disaster so far for the Cavaliers. There is a sense from Bay Area reporters that the Warriors are trying really hard to not say what everyone is thinking: "This is really easy for the Warriors." The Cavaliers haven't won a single matchup. They are getting destroyed in nearly every category.
| Category | Warriors | Cavaliers | Advantage |
| Points | 214 | 166 |  |
| Rebounds | 87 | 81 | |
| Offensive rebounds | 66 | 57 | |
| Assists | 55 | 32 | |
| Steals | 16 | 22 |  |
| Blocks | 13 | 7 | |
| Field goals | 87 | 60 | |
| 3-point field goals | 24 | 12 | |
| Net points per 100 possessions | plus-29.3 | minus-29.3 | |
| Points in the paint | 104 | 82 | |
| Points off turnovers | 51 | 32 | |
| Second-chance points | 28 | 28 | DRAW |
| Fastbreak points | 23 | 29 | |
| Free throw rate | .119 | .270 | |
The Cavs do have a higher free-throw rate. Gotta feel good about that!
There is no good news for Cleveland, other than "Role players play better at home." As of Monday, SportsLine's projection model gives the Warriors a 92.5 percent chance to win the NBA title. Teams that go up 2-0 with home court in the Finals are 28-3 all-time. It's not just that everything has gone wrong for the Cavs. There's a bigger concern. You can play better and tilt some of those categories. But the matchups are all being resoundingly won by the Warriors, in a way that makes you question if the Cavs can even win a game.
THE IRVING-LOVE QUESTION
I wrote during the Finals last year about the Kevin Love-Kyrie Irving absence and if it really would have flipped the Finals since the Cavaliers took two games without them. People assumed that with both stars healthy, the Cavs would have an even better shot at beating Golden State, and I wasn't sold. This is by no means an "I told you so" moment, because in there, I wrote that it wouldn't be a cakewalk for Golden State with those two players healthy (it has been) and that with Love and Irving it might become a coin flip, offensively (it is not, so far).
However, the biggest point I tried to make in that series was this: The injuries to Love and Irving forced the Cavaliers to play a certain way. They slowed the pace in that series, yet are trying to push it now. They were defensively focused then by playing two bigs; now they're offensively focused. In 2015, the Cavs pushed everything through LeBron James, who knew he had to stay in attack mode for 48 minutes, as opposed to this year where he has been looking to get other guys going.
Last year's Finals was an example of how adversity can create a special set of circumstances that empower you to be the best you can be. This Cavs team is better on paper than it was last year, but bear in mind that while they lost two games throughout the entire Eastern Conference playoffs last year, they also lost twice against the East this year. They also played the Hawks in both postseasons, a team the Cavs match up with similar to how the Warriors match up with the Cavs. That's not to say that the Cavaliers aren't better this year, they are. The presence of Irving and Love makes that clear. It's just that the Warriors are still way, way better. If you're not better than your opponent from a wholistic approach, you have to be better from a matchup design. The Cavs are neither.
HEY, GOLDEN STATE'S PRETTY GOOD
It's easy -- and more interesting -- to look at how the Cavaliers are sunk, about their matchup failures, to start projecting about trading Love or to question LeBron James' legacy (which I've been guilty of doing -- and will continue to do -- a fair amount despite how much I appreciate and marvel at his career). But it should really be noted that the Warriors deserve a huge amount of credit here. The Cavaliers are not the Raptors or the Bucks. (Though those teams might, and I'm not kidding, give the Warriors a bit more trouble because of the underdog factor and their matchups with length. Remember, Toronto hung with the Warriors both times in the regular season and the Bucks beat them once. The Raptors can be not-as-good-as-Cleveland-overall and match up better with the Warriors at the same time. )
The Warriors are stomping the East's best team, and even if that's a damnation on the conference system (which I don't really think it is, despite wanting the league to seed without conference anyway just for more interesting matchups). Yet it doesn't take away from how good the Warriors are. Remember, they came in on less rest and after a much tougher conference finals. Also, Steph Curry isn't 100 percent (and hasn't played all that well overall) and they are destroying Cleveland. Their lineups have been perfectly suited to battle and defuse Cleveland, their defensive rotations have been pre-cognizant, their effort and energy level have been inspiring and they have sought out and attacked every weak point the Cavaliers have.
Love is not even playing that badly on defense (effort-wise), but the Warriors are just targeting him mercilessly and there's nothing Cleveland can do. Same deal with Shaun Livingston posting up smaller players and Andre Iguodala using the space afforded him to tear the Cavs up with passes.
The Cavaliers' big defensive fallback is Tristan Thompson's length and athleticism at the rim. He's their safety valve, even though he's not Tyson Chandler or anything. So the Warriors have just forced the Cavaliers to switch him onto a guard, and then simply spread him out to the 3-point line. Thompson can't block shots because he's not in the paint. It's nothing super complex, but it's the kind of thing that other teams wouldn't be disciplined about and would pay the price.
The Warriors are worthy of their mantle as the best team ever for how they've played in these Finals, not only for what they bring to the table on paper, but for how they've stepped up and performed with the mental intensity you need to win a championship.
HEAD GAMES
Here's something LeBron James said after a regular-season loss to the Raptors back in February, something he has said consistently since he arrived in Cleveland, which has been the source of the majority of his frustration with the team:
"When you lose the way we lost, mental mistake after mental mistake, those hurt more than anything when you can play better mentally," he said. "People get so caught up on the physical side of the game. We lack mental right now, and we've got to continue to get better with it."
LeBron James said this after Game 2:
"We can't have as many mental lapses. More on the physical, it's a lot of mental as well. These guys put you in so many mental positions where you have to figure it out, and they make you pay for it when you don't."
Source: ASAP Sports.
We're in the NBA Finals and LeBron James is still harping on teammates about mental focus. If you're still at that stage, and still trying to find a way to get your team mentally prepared to compete for an NBA title? You have a problem that is much bigger than trying to add superstar talent.
James is not innocent in this. From his defensive lazing throughout not only the regular season but the playoffs as well, to his not only support of, but strong attachment to J.R. Smith (who once again has decided to check out mentally at the moment the Cavaliers need him most), it's fair to say a lot of this falls on him. ESPN's Brian Windhorst chronicled James' struggle to adapt the Heat culture and mindset to Cleveland, and in moments like this it's most apparent. The biggest guy LeBron James needs to ask the Cavaliers to add to the team is someone they can't get: Pat Riley.
It's not arrogance that drove James to try and reshape the Cavaliers' culture on his own, but an admirable attempt to own up to that responsibility. He didn't say "We need this, figure out someone who can do it." Instead he tried to take that on himself. It just hasn't worked.
Again, their mental approach could be better and they would still lose to the Warriors. Their roster could be better and they would still lose to the Warriors. LeBron James could be better and they would still lose to the Warriors. It's not one of these things, it's all of them.
ALL THAT SAID
It's still just two games, and if the Cavaliers get better chucking from Smith, a stronger and more determined LeBron James and a great Frye game along with a great performance from Tristan Thompson, they can get right back into this thing in the two-game set in Ohio starting Wednesday. The Finals aren't over. This is just the point we're at.
Key Adjustments
Usually in this spot, I do a lot of video work and break down all the little things giving either side trouble or that they're finding success with. I could do that, but it would largely be like trying to give a rhetorical analysis of a pop-up book. The Cavs need to play better in every category and the Warriors should just keep doing what they're doing. I will, however, give some brief bullet points.
Cavaliers need:
- An otherworldly performance from LeBron James. His stat line has been fine so people have shifted to "He doesn't have enough help!" Listen, I'm not someone who puts everything on James. In 2014 against the Spurs, it didn't matter what James did. He was brilliant, the Spurs were just better. He did everything he could last year, and the Warriors were able to throw enough at him to drag down his efficiency. As for James, shooting efficiency isn't something he can control the same way Stephen Curry can. He can't will that jump shot to go down. But in this series? He hasn't been great. He's vacillated between too tentative and tunnel-visioned. His game has no pace, no flow, no control. He's getting outplayed by Andre Iguodala. Does Iguodala need help to make that happen? Sure. But James has to be better. It doesn't matter if that's fair or not. He needs a 40-point triple-double or close to it or the Cavaliers are going to lose.
- Give up the stupid "push the pace" thing. I don't think David Blatt would have done better in this situation. Blatt stumbled into the big lineup advantage last year, and then went away from it instead of staying disciplined. There's a reason he didn't land an NBA job this summer. But Ty Lue's idea to push the pace against the Warriors is suicide. There are things you can do that bother the Warriors and get them out of their comfort zone. Playing fast is not one of them. That's putting them in their favorite outfit. The Cavs are playing at a faster pace than they did in the playoffs, you know, when they destroyed teams. They should not -- and will not -- beat the Warriors at their own game.
- Go hyper-small. Typically I would always suggest going super-big, it's the only way to knock the Warriors' Death Lineup off the floor and counter the way that they play. But Cleveland demolished Timofey Mozgov's confidence and banished him from the rotation, so you can't just go and throw him out there in the Finals. They should try hyper-small lineups with Irving and Matthew Dellavedova, along with Iman Shumpert, J.R. Smith and Richard Jefferson, with James at center. It sounds crazy, but putting James on the offensive glass could bother Draymond Green and puts 2-3 ball-handlers on the floor for the Cavaliers. I just don't think at this point you can turn to the two-big lineup and expect it to work.
Warriors need:
- Steph Curry more on-ball. They could use Curry to get going. It's easy to just say "they've won, so just keep doing what they're doing" and Curry was efficient in Game 2 but you want to be ahead of the adjustments and the Cavaliers are likely to spend a little more time guarding Green (who they rightfully dared to beat them in Game 2 and he did), which could open up things for Curry. If Curry goes bananas in Game 3, it could be 3-0 and this thing's a wrap no matter what happens in Game 4.
- Push the pace. The Cavs want to run? The Warriors should be all about that. Make it as chaotic as possible. They thrive there, the Cavs flounder.
- More Festus Ezeli. He did not play well against the Thunder but has gotten his legs under him as this series has gone on. Andrew Bogut's rim protection has been great to set a tone, but the Warriors' offense is sub-100-per-100 possessions with him on the floor. They could use more of what Ezeli brings to the table.
- Do more of what they did in Games 1 and 2, because they were awesome.
Hot-Take Narrative Rankings
Here's where we stand on the burning hot opinions that these Finals are trending towards. Bear in mind hot takes aren't true or false, they're just opinions that will emerge from the cultural ether.
1. "The Warriors are the best team of all time."
2. "LeBron James' Finals record will keep him from being a top-five player all-time."
3. "The Cavaliers have to trade Kevin Love this offseason."
4. "Draymond Green will go from being a second-round pick to Finals MVP."
5. "The Eastern Conference, despite a better overall record set than the West and a positive record in head to head matchups between playoff teams, is trash compared to the Western Conference."
Game 3 Info
When: Wednesday, June 8, 9 p.m. ET
Where: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH
TV: ABC
Injuries: Kevin Love (concussion) is reportedly OUT for Game 3. He is currently undergoing the NBA's concussion protocol.
