East preview: Heavy is head that wears crown, unless you're King

Mejia's West Preview

The champs are in trouble.

This is just how the Heat like things, seemingly having ripped the "If it ain't rough, it ain't right" tag from Detroit during last year's postseason. But that attitude isn't advised this time, given the Heat's current shape.

Ben Gordon's Bulls will be holding their heads high after their series vs. the Heat. (Getty Images)

Dwyane Wade is not himself. Nowhere near it, in fact. Shaquille O'Neal had great moments down the stretch, and he had some ordinary nights, too. Who knows what to expect?

One thing that's certain is that Chicago is not who Miami wanted to see in the opening round, with the reasoning why detailed below.

The Heat shocked the world a season ago, and will have to do it again.

Top-seeded Detroit just has to hold serve, and the veterans probably don't mind getting some of the heaviest lifting out of the way early in the conference semis.

In the other half of the bracket, Cleveland is in the best shape. The Cavaliers were an offensive rebound away from the conference finals a year ago, and have a great opportunity to get there this time around. They open up with depleted Washington and will have to get past an Atlantic Division squad after that.

Sounds like the red carpet is already rolled out for LeBron James' first visit to a championship round.

No. 1 Detroit vs. No. 8 Orlando | Preview

Nuts and bolts: Veteran former champion seeking another ring meets up-and-comer that's not on its level.

Recipe for disaster: The Magic are the most turnover-prone team to make this postseason, and missed more free throws than anyone in the league. That doesn't sound too promising when you factor in the opposition. The Pistons capitalize on mistakes and make every possession difficult. They're physical and don't give up easy baskets. They swallow up teams that lack a go-to scorer, which Orlando does.

Chauncey's turn to shine: The Pistons love to share the spotlight, like a Motown singing group passing the mic around. Against Orlando, expect Flip Saunders to call for Chauncey Billups to crank out a few solos.

Magic point guard Jameer Nelson can't handle two-time All-Star Chauncey Billups. (AP)

Billups averaged 26 points per game in Detroit's four wins against the Magic, because they can't match up with him. He's too big and strong for Jameer Nelson and fares well against former teammate Carlos Arroyo. Brian Hill went as far as to put Grant Hill on Billups last time they played, and will have to get creative to keep the All-Star point guard from getting off. Playoff veteran Keyon Dooling, a pesky defender, should pitch in.

Dwight's first dance: Dwight Howard had a lot of success against the Pistons in their first three meetings, shooting more than 50 percent from the field each time, averaging 24 points and 12.6 rebounds. In the most recent outing, on April 11, Detroit did a much better job, holding him to 3-for-12 shooting. The Pistons may have figured him out. Whatever the case, Howard has to find ways to get off against Chris Webber and Rasheed Wallace for these games to even be competitive.

Darko a go or no? Valuable backup big man Darko Milicic severely sprained an ankle Tuesday, making him questionable for those first few games. The Magic would be painfully thin without him.

Technicals reset, right? Yep, 'Sheed has a clean slate. Rip and Flip, too.

Grant Hill's take: He wanted the Pistons. The last time he played a postseason game, he limped off with the ankle injury that would impede his career. So, in a sense, it's special to him to make it back to Detroit and play. He's been springy down the stretch, and even looked good playing four games in five nights to help the Magic get in. He's an X-factor in the sense that he's the only Orlando player truly equipped to be the go-to guy.

How good is this series going to be? The Pistons have a tendency to play down to their competition, and Orlando does show up against the league's better squads, this opponent being a notable exception. If Detroit doesn't dig itself a hole, there won't be a lot of drama, because it should own the fourth quarter throughout the series.

The selection: Detroit in five. It wouldn't be shocking if the Magic hung around a little longer, but there's no chance of an upset.

No. 2 Cleveland vs. No. 7 Washington | Preview

Nuts and bolts: The team no one believes can win the East lucks out with what amounts to a first-round bye, drawing an opponent missing two All-Stars.

You, again: These teams put together a memorable series in last year's first round, with the last two games going overtime. LeBron James outdueled Gilbert Arenas, getting in his ear on key free throws that the Wizards guard ended up missing. Somehow, it's not going to be quite the same if James starts whispering in the ear of Jarvis Hayes. Not that he'll need to. These are the Wizards in name only, missing Arenas and Caron Butler.

King James will own this series. Enough said. (Getty Images)

Hughes' clues: If the Cavaliers are going to take the next step and become legitimate championship contenders, James' tag-team partner, Larry Hughes, has to start playing more like Scottie Pippen than Pete Myers. Hughes did have a nice run in Cleveland's last four wins, shooting better than 50 percent, hitting on six of 13 threes, and averaging 16.7 points per game. He needs to provide that consistently, but can expect Antonio Daniels to make his life difficult in a pairing of big point guards.

Eddie Jordan's pep talk: The savvy Wizards coach has not allowed his team to quit on him, but has been the victim of the crew simply running out of gas. That was the case in a 99-94 loss on April 6, which Jordan will no doubt mention to his guys. Without Arenas and Butler, Washington led these same Cavs by 10 in the third quarter before letting them off the hook.

Triple-double alert: James celebrated his first career playoff game with a brilliant triple-double right out of the gate against the Wizards. Don't be surprised if he sends a similar message in this Game 1, hoping to snuff the life out of Washington early.

Inside job: Since Antawn Jamison has to do more scoring now, it's up to Etan Thomas to handle things down low. Jordan has lost faith in Brendan Haywood, and Darius Songaila isn't much of a defender, so it's going to be up to Thomas to stay out of foul trouble against Zydrunas Ilgauskas while matching the energy of Drew Gooden and Anderson Varejao. It figures to be as difficult as it sounds.

How good is this series going to be? Don't expect much entertainment value outside of a few brilliant performances from James. The Wizards are trying to run a relay race with their top sprinters sidelined. The idea of making up for a lack of talent with effort is noble, but won't get you far in the playoffs.

The selection: Cleveland in five. The Wizards have too much to overcome.

No. 3 Toronto vs. No. 6 New Jersey | Preview

Nuts and bolts: The Eastern Conference's biggest surprise against its biggest disappointment.

Who's that No. 15? Raptors fans won't need a program to identify Vince Carter, who was probably the most popular American in Canada when the 21st century began. Now, he's vilified. Toronto feels he turned his back on the team, and fans boo him mercilessly any chance they get. Toss the postseason factor into the fray and the environment at the Air Canada Centre should get downright nasty. Carter has shot 9-for-32 in consecutive losses up in Toronto, but he's coming in playing his best basketball of the season, routinely joining Jason Kidd in pursuit of triple-doubles. Carter's relishing the opportunity to face his former team.

Vince Carter will try to rise above the negative vibe. (Getty Images)

The Bargnani Factor: It might sound like the hoops version of The Da Vinci Code, but it's actually a major variable in this series. Although the Raptors excelled without their No. 1 pick, who missed 14 games before returning Wednesday, Andrea Bargnani averaged 18.5 in his last two games against the Nets. His shooting touch is a weapon that forces teams to guard Toronto differently. Unfortunately, his conditioning is way off after an appendectomy and a bout with a sinus infection. The Raps are stronger up front than New Jersey is because of Chris Bosh, but with Jorge Garbajosa out and Bargnani a question mark, the advantage isn't as substantial.

Mikki, you so fine: Power forward Mikki Moore is shooting 71 percent from the field in his team's four meetings with the Raptors. Can his breakthrough campaign continue?

Been there, done that: You'll hear a lot about the Raptors' lack of playoff experience, particularly among their key players. Point guard T.J Ford has a handful of games under his belt, Bosh and Joey Graham are newbies, and center Rasho Nesterovic is the dean of the group. That leaves Anthony Parker, who has played in dozens of huge games throughout his career -- overseas. A two-time champion at Maccabi Tel Aviv, don't discount Parker's potential impact as the player who will most inspire poise. He'll be instrumental in that he's bound to see a lot of Carter.

Carter's take: To Raptors fans craving a dose of Carter, the Nets swingman offered this warning through the Newark Star-Ledger: "Count your blessings. Like my Grandma used to say, sometimes you get what you want."

How good is this series going to be? You're not sold yet? There's a reason the NBA chose this series to tip off the playoff party. This one is going to be so juicy, the juices will spill on to your table, making a mess that you'll lap up greedily. The Nets were written off months ago, nearly selling off Kidd and Carter at the trade deadline. The Raptors are considered too young to be taken seriously. Neither team has anything to lose, which will make for a great time.

The selection: New Jersey in seven. Vince gets the last laugh -- in Toronto.

No. 4 Miami vs. No. 5 Chicago | Preview

Nuts and bolts: The defending champs find out whether they again have what it takes right off the bat, matching up with a nemesis.

Wade's charade? It's time to find out if Wade has been playing possum since the comeback. Understand that the answer is likely no, but don't dismiss the possibility. His overly tentative behavior with that injured left shoulder could have been a measure to ensure he'd be fine to go all out come playoffs. Wade improved steadily before shutting down in the final week, so he should be rested and ready to absorb that first hit.

Ben Wallace has to tangle with Shaq -- again. (Getty Images)

Bulls have horns: Chicago is among the most physical teams in the league, making you pay for driving the lane more often than not. Pat Riley has complained that Kirk Hinrich and Andres Nocioni have been too physical with Wade in the past, which is humorous considering the style of play Riley employed a decade ago when it offered his best chance to win in New York. Scott Skiles knows his team is deep, has a lot of fouls to burn, and plenty of versatile athletes who can make life difficult for the Heat. He might not write it on the chalk board for all to see, but you can bet the Bulls will be bullies. One way or another, we're going to find out how Wade's shoulder can withstand heavy contact.

The battle inside: Ben Wallace has seen O'Neal in consecutive conference finals, getting outplayed both times. Part of the reason for that is because Wallace, already undersized, had the wear of a full month of playoff action also weighing him down. He figures to come in fresher for this duel -- but then again, so will O'Neal. The Diesel has taken it easy once the Heat got locked into the No. 4 seed, and has to impose his will inside to make life easier on his team. If you like big men, embrace this matchup. This might very well be the best center battle this postseason produces.

The other Big Ben: Ben Gordon might be small in stature, but he's going to be huge in this series. Chicago's leading scorer posted identical 11-for-17 shooting performances in home wins over Miami this season, pouring in 74 points. However, in the games in South Florida, he averaged just 10 points on 7-for-27 shooting. The Bulls offense breaks down when his stroke is off, so he must have a big series.

Wade defiant: "Chicago feels they can beat us. Kirk Hinrich came out and said it, so we'll find out," Wade told the Palm Beach Post. "They have the opportunity now to be at home if we face them and they feel that's the only reason we won last year, because we had home-court advantage, so the only thing we can do is throw the ball up and play."

If it ain't broke, don't fix it: The Heat are breaking out the "White Hot" campaign again, urging fans to wear white to home games for the second consecutive postseason. Miami has launched similar campaigns around the other team colors, black and red, in past postseasons, but is sticking with the formula that delivered a last year's championship.

How good is this series going to be? This is going to be a battle of wills, although I would expect at least a couple of the games to be real dogs. They'll trade blowouts a couple of times, and will also author a few instant classics. Expect the twists and turns of this series to make it must-see TV.

The selection: Chicago in seven. The timing of this series is all wrong for Miami, which appears cursed in its pursuit of a repeat. Chicago's challenge is too much, too soon.