West preview: Stocked with best, questions abound division's quest
Mejia's East Preview
The NBA champion is coming out of the Western Conference, right?
Can't tell you how many times I've had that question posed to me, despite the fact everyone expected that to be the case last year and wound up being wrong. Lengthy win streaks have hammered in the belief that the league's best squads reside in the West, and that this particular tournament will be better than even the Finals.
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| Avery Johnson can't seem to crack his old mentor Don Nelson and the Warriors. (Getty Images) |
Inquiring minds are also interested in finding out whether Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming can win a playoff series, how many wins Kobe Bryant can single-handedly claim for his Lakers, and how Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson will co-exist in this type of environment.
Can't say for sure that the NBA champ is coming out of the West, but there's no doubt that the more riveting playoff matchups will be found out there.
We'll start getting answers right out of the gate.
No. 1 Dallas vs. No. 8 Golden State | 
Preview
Nuts and bolts: The league's best team faces an old friend, who just happens to have their number.
Stats don't lie: You wouldn't think a team that won 67 regular season games would be too concerned about an opponent making its first playoff appearance in 13 years, but in this case, worry is merited. Dating back to last season, Golden State has beaten Dallas five straight times. Two of those wins came under Mike Montgomery. Now that the Warriors are coached by Don Nelson, who knows the Mavericks so well, they have developed a swagger against the NBA's best team.
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| Will a healthy Baron Davis spell trouble for the top-seeded Mavs? (Getty Images) |
B-Diddy's show: Baron Davis helped clinch Golden State's first playoff bid with a triple-double in Portland. In the last 20 games in which he's been healthy, Golden State is 16-4. Davis has had a hand in all three victories over the Mavericks, and his strength and quickness figures to make life difficult for Jason Terry and Devin Harris. His team goes as far as he takes it.
History of the 1-8 matchup: Since this pairing makes things interesting, it's worth mentioning that a No. 8 seed has beaten a No. 1 seed twice. Denver took out Seattle in 1994 and the Knicks got past Miami in 1999. Both were best-of-five series that went the distance. Since the NBA went to a best-of-seven format for the first round, the No. 1 seed hasn't dropped a series, being pushed to seven games only once (Detroit, 2003).
Cuban independence: Dallas owner Mark Cuban has been filled with passive aggressiveness this season, but has behaved, given little reason not to considering his team's success. Put all that talk about him buying the Cubs on the backburner for now, though, because the Mavericks figure to have his full attention. Will he stick to being more low-key, or will the excitement of the moment get the best of him. Make no mistake, his opinions will be sought after, and he'll be part of the story from the outset. You'll be hearing about his fractured relationship with Nellie.
How good is this series going to be?: This is a beauty of a 1-8 series, and has the potential to get real interesting. It will definitely be high-scoring, because the Warriors are going to go small a lot and take chances filling passing lanes and pressing. Dallas is bound to take advantage of Golden State's aggressiveness, resulting in an increased pace.
The selection: Dallas in six. Nellie's Warriors give the Mavs a healthy scare before being put down.
No. 2 Phoenix vs. No. 7 L.A. Lakers | Preview
Nuts and bolts: Rivals renewing acquaintances in an identical pairing from last season's first round.
What's different?: In the past 12 months, Bryant has proven to be an even more brilliant scorer than we thought he was last year, dropping in 50 points in a season with more frequency than anyone since Wilt Chamberlain. His supporting cast seems to have dropped off, though. In the Phoenix camp, Amare Stoudemire is back and Leandro Barbosa is far more polished.
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| Jordan Farmar's playoff mission: Smother two-time MVP Steve Nash. (Getty Images) |
No element of surprise: Kobe's sharing of the basketball early in last year's first round caught Phoenix off guard. The Suns are expecting it this time around, at least early in the series. L.A. is going to try and get the ball inside for good looks, working the shot clock to slow down the tempo. There's even talk that Bryant could see heavy post-up action.
Bad sign: Bryant is winless against the Suns this season. L.A. beat the Suns on opening night, but did so without its star, who was hobbled at the time. He was in the lineup for the March 4 loss and April's two setbacks, averaging 27 points on 40 percent shooting. Both figures are well below his season averages.
Give and take: "I don't think it would go seven," Stoudemire said of another meeting with the Lakers. "I think we would take care of them pretty quick, hopefully, if everything goes as planned."
Bryant: "Well, we'll put his clairvoyance to the test."
How good is this series going to be?: It won't be as enjoyable as last year's, which featured overtime in Game 6 and ended with the Suns wiping out a 3-1 deficit. Still, it should have its moments. Raja Bell goes right at Bryant, bringing out the best and worst in him, so that alone will be fun.
The selection: Phoenix in five. What Stoudemire said.
No. 3 San Antonio vs. No. 6 Denver | Preview
Nuts and bolts: Playoff-tested powerhouse encounters dangerous team that hits its stride late.
Opening game huge: Considering the momentum they've gained through wins in 10 of their last 11, the Nuggets are going to come into San Antonio expecting to win Game 1. They did it two years ago, which is something Gregg Popovich won't need to remind his team about. The Spurs went on to win the championship, but are well aware that the road started off rocky. They'll look to avoid that this time around.
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| Allen Iverson's thriving in a pass-first, shoot-second mode of operation. (Getty Images) |
Need for speed: Iverson's quickness was a novelty when he came into the league a decade ago, and even at 30, he remains one of the fastest players. So it's got to be strange when he runs into someone faster, like San Antonio's Tony Parker. That matchup will be crucial, because both teams excel in transition. The last time they met, Iverson was still nursing a bum ankle and Parker took him apart.
Can Karl get to a Game 6?: George Karl has had a decent run as the Nuggets head coach, but hasn't been able to last more than five games in a playoff series. San Antonio ousted the 2005 squad he excelled with following his mid-season hire, and the L.A. Clippers did Denver in last year.
Immovable object, irresistible force: Bruce Bowen vs. 'Melo. The Spurs stopper has had his way with Anthony in the past, but an improved Anthony expects to do better.
"I'm much more mature than I was then," Anthony told the Rocky Mountain News. "I know what I have to do for us to win, which is not scoring 30, 35 points a game, especially not in the playoffs. I was young (in 2005) playing against a veteran guy like Bruce Bowen. Hopefully, I can go get my mental on right now."
The x-factor: With Tim Duncan and Marcus Camby patrolling around the rim, there's going to be little available at the basket outside of a few putbacks. That's going to put a lot of emphasis on jump shooting, an area where Denver struggles and San Antonio excels. That will make the difference.
How good is this series going to be?: The individual matchups alone make this series compelling. There are great defenders, scorers and coaches everywhere you look.
The selection: San Antonio in six. A healthy Duncan is not going to let his team lose a first-round series. Impossible.
No. 4 Utah vs. No. 5 Houston | Preview
Nuts and bolts: Two squads desperate to be lumped in with the NBA's best battle not to be left behind.
50-50 club This is the only first-round series in the league to be contested between 50-game winners.
Fragile?: Jerry Sloan called his team "fragile" late in the season, citing their inability to handle the adversity of being banged up or missing anyone from the lineup. Blowing huge leads down the stretch, which ultimately ended up costing them the home-court advantage in this series, made for an unfortunate end to an otherwise brilliant season. Frustrated owner Larry Miller even said the Jazz "sucked" last weekend, a remark that drew the ire of veteran Derek Fisher.
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| Will the 'fragile' Jazz have an answer for Houston's dynamic duo? (Getty Images) |
AK, O.K.?: Andrei Kirilenko returned from a thumb fracture on Monday and looked like his old self, flying all over the court deflecting passes and altering and blocking shots. It was an encouraging sign for Utah, which badly needs his defense, especially in a series where it lacks a guard who can legitimately match up with McGrady.
T-Mac seeks breakthrough: McGrady has famously never gotten out of the first round of the playoffs in his career, missing out with Toronto, Orlando and two years ago with Houston. He's 0-for-5.
Supporting cast under fire: Popular opinion is that the Rockets simply don't have enough surrounding McGrady and Yao to be taken seriously as a championship contender. This is a good series for Rafer Alston and Chuck Hayes to prove otherwise. Van Gundy doesn't need these guys to be stars, but rather, fill roles well. Alston will be asked to take care of the basketball and make life tough for Deron Williams, while Hayes will need to remain active and knock lunch pails with Boozer. If they perform their roles well, Houston advances.
How good is this series going to be?: If it's a track meet you want, you should definitely look elsewhere, because these games are going to be played close to the vest, predicated on a plodding, half-court style. There should be plenty of strategy, and I expect multiple games to come down to the final minute.
The selection: Houston in seven. T-Mac breaks through, and fading late winds up costing the Jazz dearly.
