It took three years of molding for Florida's Al Horford to emerge as the prototype.
Prototype is a neat word, especially when used as an adjective. It's defined as someone or something that serves to illustrate the typical qualities of a class or model. Power forwards, ideally, are supposed to look a certain way, act a certain way, play a certain way. You think power forwards, you think Karl Malone. You think Tim Duncan.
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| When discussing power forwards in the draft, the conversation should start and end with Al Horford. (AP) |
When discussing the top power forwards available in a draft rich with them, the conversation has to begin with Horford. He has earned that, overcoming the considerable shadow teammate Joakim Noah cast over him entering their junior seasons. Noah would have been a top-three pick had he come out last year. Thursday night, it will probably be Horford's name that is heard after Greg Oden and Durant.
Horford is a neat story. Born in the Dominican Republic the son of former NBA forward Tito Horford. Showed up as an unheralded recruit and wound up as the best player of the '04s, the name Florida's recruiting class that won consecutive national championships gave themselves. Noah and Corey Brewer will join Horford as lottery picks. Taurean Green should go in the second round.
Horford cemented the buzz around him in the 2007 National Championship Game, leading the Gators with 18 points and 12 rebounds. Oden was the best player on the floor that night, but Horford wasn't far behind. Since then, he has wowed teams in individual workouts, and might force Atlanta, a team that has drafted forwards with its past five draft picks, to go big again. As it is, the word is he won't slip past Memphis at No. 4.
One reason the Hawks could live with selecting Horford is that he's fully equipped to guard centers, if not right now, then certainly in the near future. He's got the length and the strength for it, and because of his ability to run the floor, Horford would be able to run the floor with the faster pace maintained by Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Marvin Williams.
Memphis has gone to an up-tempo style and views Horford as potentially the perfect complement to big man Pau Gasol. If he's not there, the Grizzlies might just go with the another Gator, Noah.
Noah's inconsistent junior season has scouts disagreeing on how effective he'll be in the NBA without a refined offensive game, but there's no question Noah plays with a high motor and should be able to translate that into professional success. He does get up and down the court better than any big man in the draft. He's not Ben Wallace or Dennis Rodman on the offensive end, but does have considerable strides to make. This is an important pick for the Grizzlies' new regime, the highest they've selected since taking Drew Gooden fourth in 2002.
As recently as a few weeks ago, North Carolina's Brandan Wright would have been the no-brainer choice for Memphis, but there are questions about whether he has the necessary strength to contribute immediately. Wright is smooth and agile, but the concern is that since he is just over 200 pounds he'll be overwhelmed by the physicality of the pro game. Teams selecting among the top five picks aren't really in a position where they can afford to gamble on whether his great athleticism will overcome his lack of bulk, so there's a chance he may slip.
At the same time, Wright has more upside than Noah and might wind up being a steal for whoever is willing to show patience. His own mental makeup will be the determining factor, depending on how aggressively he hits the weights and how effectively he handles coming off the bench for the first time in his life.
Decision makers around the league are having a hard time projecting the effectiveness of Noah and Wright, so you can imagine they're really torn on what to make of China's Yi Jianlian. Whether he's another Dirk Nowitzki or Nikoloz Tskitishvili seems to be the prevailing question, but most people I've talked to feel he can really play.
The majority of the league's top front office personnel made the trek to Asia in May to watch Yi's Guandong Southern Tigers lose in the Chinese Basketball Association finals and came away impressed. It's hard to translate Yi's accomplishments given the difference in the level of competition, but the general consensus was that his talent is legitimate. He can put the ball on the floor extremely well for a 7-footer, has a solid perimeter game, and plays with intensity. Yi looked good against the U.S. National Team in last year's FIBA World Championships, coming out and not backing down from anyone despite being just 19 years old and somewhat of a marked man.
Based on those performances and his impressive workouts, there probably is already a team sold on him as a prospect, but they're not going to put that out there. Because of the way draft politics work, getting teams to be candid about players like Yi is harder than getting a priest to lie. Smoke screens are out in full force, though Boston was one of the teams that was really enamored with what they saw overseas. They might bite if they hold on to the No. 5 pick, but that secret won't be revealed until the Celtics are on the clock.
As for Horford, he's no longer a secret. Guys that develop as rapidly as he has can't stay anonymous long.
