Nov. 5, 2007

Weekly Essentials: It's never too early to panic, right?

By Tony Mejia | CBSSports.com Sports Writer

For the first in-season installment of the Essentials, the nicest thing I could think of doing for everybody is to separate who should be panicking from who shouldn't be.

Can the power of LeBron James carry the Cavs? Well, we'll see. (Getty Images)

You can't get too high or too low. That's an old coaching cliché, but in this instance it fits about as nicely as your favorite sweater.

Now, if you're Cleveland, you can go ahead and get ready to track down Dr. Melfi about those pesky panic attacks and feel perfectly justified. The Cavaliers are in a world of hurt. They opened a grueling six-game road trip with a loss on Sunday against a Suns team without Amare Stoudemire (sore knee) and ran out of gas in the second half.

After going scoreless in a half for the first time in his career in the opener, LeBron James killed the Knicks with 45 points, backing up his preseason intentions to will his team "to win games because of who I am." It sounds vain, but if he can back it up, more power to him.

The problem with L.B.'s theory is that his latest Nike commercials may harp on continuing to work hard and get better, but those spots Adidas trots out actually offer up the gospel. It takes five. James found that out the hard way in June's NBA Finals, and he'll get another reminder on what promises to be a losing West Coast swing that could have ramifications beyond simply a rough stretch.

The Cavs play at Golden State on Tuesday, a place you don't want to go into looking tired. The next night, they're in Utah. After a travel day, they're back in California for a winnable game with the Kings before finishing things up with another tough back-to-back against the Clippers and Nuggets. The best case scenario for Cleveland is a split, which borders on being greedy. Still, while it's doable, at what cost does success come?

At this stage of his career, Zydrunas Ilgauskas shouldn't be averaging more than 35 minutes per game this early. Drew Gooden is averaging about 37. James himself has rested nine minutes in the past two games, contests played on separate coasts.

Anderson Varejao, who should be absorbing some of the wear and tear his frontcourt mates are taking, remains a holdout. Sasha Pavlovic played for the first time Sunday night but will take some time to get back in sync. While Cleveland gets him back, it loses Donyell Marshall to a sprained right wrist, weakening an already thin bench.

Cleveland's problems aren't going away anytime soon. Larry Hughes and Daniel Gibson, try as they might, are not legitimate point guards. At least Gibson hasn't forgotten how to shoot. Can't say the same for Hughes right now; he's shooting 27 percent.

Sacramento can also panic. The Kings haven't led or been tied since the opening quarter of the opening game and are averaging a 17-point deficit per loss through three games. Ron Artest will come back on Nov. 14, but his presence alone won't be able to change their fortunes. John Salmons and Francisco Garcia have had promising starts, but if this first week doesn't scream that Sacramento needs to scrap it all and start over, nothing will. Seattle and Minnesota, who are already committed to the rebuilding route, come through Arco Arena this week. If Reggie Theus can't get his first win soon, he might be waiting a while.

Washington rounds out the list of teams who can continue biting through the rest of those fingernails. Losing its first three games isn't as big a deal as Gilbert Arenas' surgically repaired left knee acting up. He feels like he's moving around with a "five-pound weight" attached to it and will have fluid drained from it before the Wizards' next game, which comes at New Jersey on Thursday. At this point, on-court performance is not as important as getting his health squared away, and the known gym rat has to make sure he's responsible with his body. Not only can this mess with Washington's season, it can also disrupt his plans to opt out of his current deal and establish long-term security at season's end.

Miami should be on the panic fence, if only because it's eerie to see a team that just hung its first championship banner around this time last season relying on rookie Daequan Cook, Penny Hardaway and Chris Quinn in clutch situations. Counting the preseason, the Heat have lost all 10 times they've put on a uniform in 2007-08.

At the same time, Detroit's Antonio McDyess, who got a close-up look at Shaquille O'Neal on Nov. 1, told CBSSports.com that the big man is still a force, strong as ever, but "is just out of shape after missing so much time during the preseason."

Considering O'Neal fouled out of the first two games and finally showed some life in Sunday's loss to Charlotte, going for a season-high 17 points and nine rebounds, we'll buy McDyess' theory that Shaq is still just trying to find his flow and eventually will. It does take the older guys in the league a little longer, even if they do spend half the summer getting overweight kids in shape. The Heat will fall to 0-5 considering the Spurs and Suns are up next, but with Dwyane Wade's return imminent, Udonis Haslem can go back to not taking 20 shots a night, and some sense of normalcy can be restored. Don't bury Miami yet.

Chicago can also be spared the dirt nap treatment, even though that 78-72 Saturday night loss at Milwaukee was as ugly as they come. Don't forget that Ben Wallace has been slowed by the first sprained ankle of his life, rookie Joakim Noah has been unavailable to supply his unique brand of energy and Luol Deng seems like he got shook up by all the Kobe Bryant trade rumors.

Last season, the Bulls started out 3-9. The year before that they were 3-5 and were two games above .500 once all season. It didn't stop them from making the playoffs both times. They'll be fine.

Golden State will make it through its current struggles, too. Baron Davis hasn't gotten injured, has he? The Warriors badly need Stephen Jackson to help give them a defensive presence and some leadership on the wing but won't get his services back from league suspension until they hit the road for a five-game East Coast swing that begins in Toronto on Nov. 18. They've run into a Utah team they don't match up well with and couldn't stop a rejuvenated Chris Kaman in a loss to the Clippers. Don Nelson will get it figured out before things head too far south.

Team of the week:

Team of the weak:

The Timberwolves have wasted strong starts from Al Jefferson and Rashad McCants and won't reach 20 wins this season. Count on that. They're just too young. It also doesn't help that Randy Foye isn't healthy to get the on-the-job training that would make this excruciating period a little less painful to stomach. With Sebastian Telfair and Marko Jaric trying to run the show, expect the losing to continue at home Tuesday against the improved Magic and on the road later in the week at the Lakers and Kings.

Player to watch:

This is a week of truth for Dirk Nowitzki, with two huge tests. (Getty Images)

Thursday's big game has the reigning MVP going into his personal house of horrors, Oracle Arena, for another meeting with the swarming Warriors. Nowitzki has agonized over last year's early playoff demise and will get his first opportunity to show off any adjustments he has come up with in the offseason, hopefully starting with an improved post game.

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