June 27, 2008

A Fantasy read on the Detroit Lions

By Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer
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Big things were expected from Detroit WR Calvin Johnson in his rookie season last year. He was a tremendous talent at Georgia Tech, the Lions drafted him with the No. 2 overall pick and he was going to play in Mike Martz's pass-happy offense.

Instead of dominating as a rookie, Johnson was just mediocre. He finished with 48 catches for 756 yards and four touchdowns in 15 games and failed to live up to the hype.

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Heading into 2008, Fantasy owners want to know if Johnson is legit or if he's the next Charles Rogers. In case you forgot -- and we know the Lions certainly remember -- Rogers was the No. 2 overall selection in 2003 and is now out of football.

Now, Johnson is not going to become another Rogers. He has too much talent and upside, and he will turn things around from last year.

Johnson was limited in 2007 with a bad back, which he hurt in Week 3 and lingered all season. He is healthy coming into training camp and is already talking about 1,200 yards receiving.

A safer projection is about 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns. If he stays healthy, those are easy numbers for Johnson to reach.

With Martz now in San Francisco, the Lions passing game should have a different look. Don't expect as many unconventional routes or lineups, but that won't hurt Johnson too much.

Calvin Johnson is too talented to not produce solid numbers in his sophomore season. (US Presswire)

Johnson might not have his breakout year in 2008, but he will still play well enough to be used as a No. 2 Fantasy option. You can expect more touchdowns, especially in the red zone, and his yardage will improve.

His rookie season was a disappointment, but his sophomore campaign will be exactly what Fantasy owners have been waiting for from this talented receiver.

Positives: Johnson has plenty of speed and size. He can win jump balls, which should help in the red zone, and also goes over the middle. Now that he's healthy from the back injury, he should put up great stats in his second season.

Negatives: No more Martz could mean less focus on the passing game in Detroit, which means less opportunities for Johnson. Williams is in a contract year, so he could dominate the offense as well. Kitna tends to make mistakes, but he needs to start ahead of Dan Orlovsky and Drew Stanton for Johnson to succeed.

Outlook: Johnson will play well in 2008. He should be drafted as a low-end No. 2 option, but you can count on him to be a dependable starter for your Fantasy team. Look to draft Johnson somewhere around Round 6 or 7 in all leagues.

Position battle: No. 1 running back

Kevin Smith Pro: The Lions drafted Smith in the third round of the 2008 NFL Draft to be their starter, and he has looked good in minicamp this offseason. He has a good combination of size and speed and ran for more than 2,000 yards at Central Florida. He can handle 20 touches a game. Con: He's not the best receiver, which could hurt his value as an every-down back. He has a lot of wear-and-tear from college, which could lead to injury.

Tatum Bell Pro: The Lions re-signed Bell for a reason, which means coach Rod Marinelli sees something he likes. Bell rushed for 1,946 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2005-06 with Denver, the two years before he played in Martz's offense. Con: Bell has been terrible for the Lions, and last year only played in five games. The Lions drafted Smith for a reason, which is to replace Bell in the lineup. Brian Calhoun has a better chance than Bell to be the third-down back. Bell also showed up to minicamp out of shape. Prediction: Smith is a great sleeper in Fantasy leagues this year because the Lions offense is going to surprise some people. Smith will start with Bell the backup, but Smith is a good Fantasy RB to covet in the middle rounds. Take him as a No. 3 option, but you can count on him starting several weeks for your team. Bell is a decent option to fill out your bench.