Hope not the best tactic for Warriors to adopt

OAKLAND, Calif. -- Next May, when the Warriors are deciding who to send to represent them at the NBA lottery in Secaucus, N.J., you'll be able to point to this moment as the culprit.

Two years from now, when the big-time free agents are signing with perennial winners close to something special, you can look back and blame this summer as the reason the Warriors were left empty-handed, settling for a second-tier star like Caron Butler or Richard Hamilton.

The Warriors hope Monta Ellis is ready to step in after Baron Davis' exit. (Getty Images)

Because this summer will go down as the one where the Warriors let their best chance get away. When point guard Baron Davis opted out of his contract, then agreed to a five-year deal with the Clippers, the Warriors -- recently one of the most captivating teams in the NBA -- returned to mediocrity. And they have only themselves to blame.

Because instead of holding fast to the one sure star they had, the Warriors adopted Barack Obama's presidential campaign theme: hope.

Hope that guard Monta Ellis is ready to be a frontline star and young forwards Brandan Wright and Anthony Randolph actually reach their potential.

Hope that the salary cap money they now have will be enticing to a stud free agent who can fill the void left by Davis' beard -- if not this offseason, but next year -- or when the big crop becomes available in 2010.

Hope that long-suffering Golden State fans -- who came out in record droves during the B. Diddy era -- will continue to stick around despite having their ice cream yanked away after just a few licks.

Unfortunately for them, hope doesn't win games, not in the Western Conference. Steps backward rarely become steps forward. Davis' departure was a devastating blow to a franchise and a fan base that had just sprung into relevance.

It would've been much easier to give Davis the help he needed, even if it meant paying the luxury tax. It would've been a much more refreshing, exciting and safer move to sign Davis -- even at the risk he'll get hurt again -- and add another piece to get the franchise up another notch.

The reality is that you can't win in this league without spending money. You need three great players (or at least two great players and two really good players) to be a serious contender in the NBA. And you don't get those without dropping $15 million to $20 million a year a couple times over.

The Warriors had a great player and could've gotten him for $15 million a year. They could've acquired a Josh Smith type -- an athletic, rebounding power forward -- to fill their biggest void and complement the one great player they had. Instead of trying to win now, the Warriors decided to hope.

Do they still have some talent to work with? No question. Ellis looks as if he's going to be the real deal, but he's been playing next to someone who is the real deal. It is utopic to think Ellis -- who just learned how to dribble to his left effectively -- is ready to carry the Warriors back to the playoffs.

Sure, Wright and Randolph, and second-year guard Marco Belinelli, and even young center Andris Biedrins, make the future gleam pretty bright. But it is fantastical to think all of them will pan out, to think injury or poor work ethic or locker room problems or contract issues won't claim the promise of at least two of them.