As Usher would say, these are my confessions.
On Dec. 15, 2008, in a galaxy far, far away -- in something called my "quarterly report" -- I wrote the following about the Denver Nuggets in conjunction with picking them to finish seventh in the Western Conference: "I know Denver has the second-best record in the West, but I can't help it. I just can't believe in them yet."
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| J.R. Smith's outside touch complements Carmelo Anthony's post scoring. (AP) |
In fairness, there was an ample body of evidence to suggest the Nuggies were still a long way from getting out of their Huggies. Their best player, Carmelo Anthony, was just as inclined to get suspended for disrespecting his coach as score 33 points in a single quarter. (And sure enough, he has done both this season).
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Melo's running mate on the perimeter after the Allen Iverson-for-Chauncey Billups trade, J.R. Smith, was prone to mental lapses and has spent as much time in George Karl's doghouse as his own house.
Speaking of Karl, I just wondered how long it would take this brilliant, cranky, stubborn coach to tire of the wayward youth on his patrol. Well, Karl is still brilliant, cranky and stubborn, but the chemistry experiment that has been the Nuggets in recent seasons -- potentially great but also maddeningly combustible -- finally has struck the right balance. Or is it imbalance?
Right now, it hardly matters. With a seven-game winning streak and a two-game lead over San Antonio for the second seed in the West, it's time to start talking about the Nuggets with the same reverence as those darlings of the East, Orlando and Boston.
The way they're playing with this eclectic mix of elite talent ('Melo), youth (Smith), experience at the point (Billups), fierce interior presence (Kenyon Martin/Nene), minimum-salaried castoffs (Dahntay Jones, Anthony Carter), and ink-stained wretches (Chris "Birdman" Andersen, who apparently fell asleep for six months in a tattoo parlor), the Nuggets deserve my apology. They also deserve to be regarded as every bit the threat to the Lakers in the West as the Magic and Celtics are to Cleveland in the East.
How did this happen? Much of the credit -- and rightfully so -- goes to Billups and the vision of GM Mark Warkentien, who saw an opportunity to parlay Iverson's expiring contract and ill-fitting talents into the elite point guard Denver was lacking. The Nuggets were top-notch at the two-guard with Iverson and Smith, but Warkentien knew they wouldn't be built for a deep playoff run until they got a point guard who mattered. Billups matters, having steadied everything Denver does at both ends of the floor.
What has been lost, though, in the A.I.-Billups swap is the real reason behind it. For Warkentien, who is as unafraid to gamble on talent as any executive in the league, the trade was as much a bet on Smith as it was on Billups. The Nuggets knew what they'd get out of Billups -- steady ball distribution, big shots and capable on-ball defense at the most important position on the floor -- but the real gamble was on how Smith would respond. The Billups trade was a bet that Smith's ability to shoot it from deep would trump his immature tendencies -- and more importantly, create a pick-your-poison dilemma for defenses. 'Melo's ability to inflict damage from the mid-post area would be magnified by the deep-shooting ability of Billups and Smith, who have answered the call to punish double teams.
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| The Jay Cutler saga gets shoved to the backburner in Denver. (AP) |
If that were all Denver had done, they would still be a dangerous playoff team and a tough out on their home floor in the early rounds. The ingredient that has made them a threat to venture deep into the postseason has been their mastery of the minimum -- aka, doing more with less. At a time when some of Denver's competitors are only now coming to grips with falling revenue and a soon-to-be shrinking salary cap and luxury tax, Nuggets owner Stan Kroenke pulled the plug on spending before his team had even played a game this season -- and long before Lehman Brothers and AIG became dinner-table talk across the country.
The Nuggets drew plenty of scorn for giving Marcus Camby away in a salary-dump deal with the Clippers last July. The consternation became internal when Denver allowed Eduardo Najera to sign with the Nets for $12 million over four years; Karl himself was none too happy. But the Nuggets didn't stop there, trading two guys who are out of the league (Taurean Green and Bobby Jones) to the Knicks for Renaldo Balkman. The Knicks wanted to get rid of Balkman so badly they paid cash for the difference between Balkman's salary and the veteran's minimum, making Balkman a founding member of Denver's bargain-basement crew of role players.
Denver signed Carter, who started 67 games for them in 2007-08, to a minimum deal in July. He was a stretch as a starting point, but has thrived as a backup since the Billups trade. Andersen, a former league drug offender-turned-reclamation project, also signed for the minimum and leads the league in blocks-per-minute. Camby averages 3.3 blocks per 48 minutes and makes $8 million. Birdman averages 5.7 blocks per 48 minutes and makes a shade under $1 million.
Add contributions from former D-Leaguers Jones and (to a lesser degree) Sonny Weems -- few teams scout the D-League as religiously as Denver -- and you see the blueprint for reducing payroll, getting under the luxury tax, and improving the team at the same time.
Even when the Nuggets can't do it on the cheap, they do it on the sly. The three-year, $16.5 million extension Smith signed last August made Smith and Karl evolve from adversaries into business partners. Smith had to play 2,000 minutes and Denver had to win 42 games for Smith to receive a $600,000 bonus. Smith surpassed the minute milestone March 27 at Dallas, when he scored 22 points including four 3-pointers in a 103-101 victory over the Mavs. The Nuggets are at 52 wins and counting. The final tally will no doubt include some victories of the postseason variety.
cornhead15 
