Eastern Conference
Best series? Blazers-Rockets. Best chance for a sweep? Lakers. Best playoff preview in the West? This one.
Here's how I see the four first-round series in the Western Conference playing out:
1-8: Lakers-Jazz
Season series: Lakers won 2-1.
Berger's take: It's hard to envision the Lakers succumbing to a team they have turned into their own personal punching bag, especially the way the Jazz have devolved into a poor road team with no defensive backbone. The one Utah player with the poise and moxie to stand up to Kobe Bryant in a seven-game series is Deron Williams; too bad they won't be guarding each other.
Other teams in the West were relieved not to draw Jerry Sloan's team in the first round, but not the Lakers. They looked awfully comfortable toying with them in their final regular-season matchup this week and will have little trouble using this as a tuneup for more formidable challenges to come.
Key matchup: Ronnie Brewer/Andrei Kirilenko vs. Bryant. Kobe pretty much owns the Jazz, averaging 31.0 ppg in the three regular-season matchups and 33.2 in the 2008 conference semifinals.
X-factor: Kirilenko. AK47 is the one player other than D-Will who could be a nuisance to the Lakers, who haven't always been as interested and committed defensively as they need to be. The Jazz typically have been able to rely on Kirilenko in the playoffs, but this has been a maddeningly inconsistent season. He saved his first 20-point game since January for the last week of the regular season.
Prediction: Lakers in five.
2-7: Nuggets-Hornets
Season series: Tied 2-2.
Berger's take: The Nuggets had a great season. Now it's time to have another one. Cleveland and the Lakers are the only playoff teams with as much confidence as Denver, and for good reason. With Chauncey Billups' steady floor leadership and playoff experience, and the unabashed, don't-know-any-better enthusiasm of Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith, the Nuggets are a team to watch out West.
The Hornets have underachieved all season, never getting the kind of lift they expected from James Posey. New Orleans stumbled into the postseason, losing six of eight and backpedaling into the seventh spot by losing its final two. Still, even with Tyson Chandler banged up, the Hornets were only one game shy of being a 50-win team. Byron Scott has the playoff experience to make it a series and will try to slow down the pace. But if Chandler isn't healthy, Denver's diverse offense will find too many holes.
Key matchup: Billups vs. Chris Paul. CP3 could create the kind of havoc the Nuggets don't want to deal with in the first round. Denver has home-court advantage in a playoff series for the first time in 21 years, and if Paul is allowed to get to the basket and create, he could singlehandedly give New Orleans a chance to steal one on the road and make it a series. Billups will need plenty of help, but he's strong and crafty enough to avoid getting beaten consistently where there is none.
X-factor: Chris "Birdman" Andersen. Led the league in blocks on a per-minute basis. His length, energy and weirdness could frustrate the Hornets' inside game.
Prediction: Nuggets in six.
3-6: Spurs-Mavericks
Season series: Tied 2-2.
Berger's take: The Spurs played like champions in securing home court and the No. 3 seed. They're going to need to extend that effort to get out of the first round without Manu Ginobili. But of the Big Three, Ginobili was the least important; Tony Parker carried them for much of the regular season, and Tim Duncan looks like he's healthy and rested enough to make his usual mark on a playoff series.
It's a clash of aging teams whose windows -- as currently constructed -- might be closing. This series might be overshadowed by Portland-Houston and Atlanta-Miami as the first round unfolds, but this one has a chance to be special and go down to the wire.
Key matchup: Parker vs. Jason Kidd. A few years ago, this would've been an all-timer. Now, it's just a great player vs. an old-timer. Rick Carlisle will have to make too many adjustments to keep Kidd from getting exposed.
X-factor: Josh Howard. He has been in and out of the lineup all year with a chronic ankle injury, but the Mavs need him to be effective if they're going to have a chance of overcoming San Antonio's home-court advantage. The spacing of games and limited travel in this series should help him stay sharp.
Prediction: Spurs in seven.
4-5: Trail Blazers-Rockets
Season series: Rockets won 2-1.
Berger's take: This is by far the most interesting series in the West and arguably in the entire field. The Blazers have been under the radar all year and have by far the most dangerous bench in the league. They also have Brandon Roy, who is up to the challenge of winning a tough playoff series.
Not so fast, though. What the Rockets have done without Tracy McGrady and Rafer Alston is too impressive to overlook. What a story it would be for Houston to get out of the first round without T-Mac after all the failures with him.
Key matchup: Greg Oden vs. Yao Ming. Portland has to make Yao work on the defensive end to minimize his offensive dominance. Oden finished his "rookie" year on a high note, and will continue to come off the bench. But Nate McMillan will have to go to him earlier in this series, and Oden has to translate his recent success into extended minutes. It's time for the No. 1 pick to play as old as he looks.
X-factor: Rudy Fernandez. Every successful playoff team has that annoying bench player who comes in and changes the momentum with deep shooting and energy play. Rudy is that guy for the Blazers and could give the Rockets fits in transition and with spot-up 3s.
Prediction: Rockets in seven.
