Berger's playoff previews: Eastern Conference

Western Conference

Is there any chance LeBron James and the Cavaliers fail to make it out of the first round? Can the Celtics lose to the Bulls without Kevin Garnett? No, and no. I guarantee it. But that doesn't mean you should stop reading my Eastern Conference playoff previews. That would really upset me.

1-8: Cavs-Pistons

Season series: Cavs won 3-1.

Berger's take: It's tempting to call this a rematch of the 2007 conference finals, but the Pistons are a much different team. (Read: Worse.) So are the Cavs. (Read: Better.) The key to being the No. 1 seed with home-court advantage throughout is not to get pushed to an extended series in the first round. The Celtics managed to survive such a near-calamity last season, but that's the exception. This will be our first glimpse of whether LeBron James and the Cavs understand what it takes to get the trophy. Rule No. 1: Don't screw around with the eighth seed. Knock them out fast and don't let them back up.

Key matchup: Zydrunas Ilgauskas vs. Rasheed Wallace. Detroit will use different combinations to defend Big Z depending on how much posting up he wants to do. So Sheed might not be on him all the time. But each player's offensive game will be important. When Ilgauskas is hitting from the outside on the pick-and-pop, the Cavs offense is murder. Same with Wallace. But Sheed has struggled with 3-point shooting (13-for-39) since returning from a calf injury. The Pistons can't win if he shoots like that.

X-factor: Daniel Gibson. One of the keys to the Cavs' run to the Finals two years ago has taken a significant step back. His outside shots haven't fallen with any consistency. But if Boobie gets his stroke back, the Pistons can forget about it.

Prediction: Cavs in five.

2-7: Celtics-Bulls

Season series: Celtics won 2-1.

Berger's take: Can the Celtics really lose a best-of-7 series to the Bulls without Kevin Garnett? Well, after they were pushed to seven games by the Hawks in the first round with Garnett, I suppose anything is possible. But Boston still has enough firepower (Paul Pierce, Ray Allen) to begin its title defense with a relatively pain-free first-round series. They'll need big contributions from Leon Powe and Big Baby Davis to make sure this one isn't as taxing as the Atlanta series was last year.

Key matchup: Derrick Rose vs. Rajon Rondo. It'll be Rondo's quickness and guile against Rose's, um, quickness and guile. Rose didn't play like a rookie this season, but the playoffs are a different beast. This will be a fun matchup to watch as long as this series lasts. The better Rose plays, the longer it lasts.

X-factor: Tyrus Thomas. The way to make the Celtics pay for Garnett's absence is to punish them at the basket. Boston's defensive concepts are sound no matter who's on the floor, but opponents can get to the rim much easier without Garnett there to protect it. When Thomas is good, he is really, really good. But he also has a knack for disappearing.

Prediction: Celtics in six.

3-6: Magic-76ers

Season series: Magic won 3-0.

Berger's take: This is the only sweep I'm calling in the first round, and for good reason. The Magic should waltz through this series and have the Philly crowd doing what it does best -– booing the home team. Orlando has too many weapons for Philly to deal with. The Sixers' only chance is to create a helter-skelter pace and make Orlando uncomfortable. But the quicker the pace, the more possessions, and the more possessions, the more 3-pointers Orlando gets to shoot. The Magic, as Stan Van Gundy likes to point out, are a much better defensive team than people think. Interesting factor to watch: Rafer Alston running a team he has only been with for two months in a playoff series. Won't be a problem in this one.

Key matchup: Andre Iguodala vs. Courtney Lee. Lee has become the Magic's defensive specialist, so it makes sense that he'll slide over and try to keep Iguodala -- an undersized three -- under control. The Sixers used to have a different A.I. to worry about, but this one will have to do. Iguodala would have to have the series of his life for the Sixers to pose problems, and it's up to Lee to make sure he doesn't find the hot hand.

X-factor: Reggie Evans. He's the only guy the Sixers have with enough bulk and mental instability to muscle up against Dwight Howard (unless they bring Matt Geiger out of retirement). Samuel Dalembert is a pesky weak-side shot-blocker, but somebody needs to at least try to send Howard a physical message early in the series. Good luck, Reg.

Prediction: Magic in four.

4-5: Hawks-Heat

Season series: Hawks won 3-1.

Berger's take: No matter how many times I wrestle with this series, a feeling of conviction eludes me. Atlanta dominated the regular-season series, plays great at home, has one of the best players in the world in Joe Johnson and has a year of playoff experience under its belt. There's only one player on the Heat who can win this series by himself. The problem is, that player's name is Dwyane Wade. Should Atlanta be able to minimize the damage and rely on Al Horford and Josh Smith to protect the basket? In theory, yes, and also in practice; Wade averaged about five points under his league-leading season average against Atlanta. But Wade is so good, I can't pick against him. So I won't.

Key matchup: Mike Bibby vs. Mario Chalmers. Theoretically, Bibby should have the edge with his playoff experience and big-game reputation. But he has lost a step, and his on-ball defense is the No. 1 factor when Atlanta has trouble. The Hawks might be able to survive a few onslaughts from Wade, but they can't survive Chalmers beating Bibby with dribble-penetration at the same time.

X-factor: Flip Murray. He has been outstanding off the bench and should've gotten more consideration for sixth man of the year from the experts -- yours truly included. Even though he's not a point guard, I don't think it's a stretch to say the Hawks would have a better shot with Murray running the point instead of Bibby. Then again, I'm not the one paying Bibby $15 million.

Prediction: Heat in seven.