Bynum a critical middle man for Lakers' success
DENVER -– The Nuggets study more film than Ebert & Roeper ever did. Led by Dean Oliver, one of the leading quantitative analysis guys in this new Moneyball era of basketball, they chart, study and dissect every conceivable matchup in pursuit of the slightest edge.
So naturally, while they found some uses for video of the Lakers' conference semifinals series against Houston, they actually spent more time studying what worked for a different opponent -- one that was actually successful in derailing L.A.'s pursuit of a championship.
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| Andrew Bynum has seen more than his fair share of the bench during the playoffs. (Getty Images) |
Therein, the Nuggets found what they hope and believe are some useful strategic tools that, if properly deployed, can transform the Western Conference finals into the long, grueling series that many predicted it will be. The Lakers lead 2-1 heading into a pivotal Game 4 on Monday night in Denver, so it's now or never if those pearls of wisdom that jumped off the screen in the Nuggets' video room are going to translate to the floor.
"I was shocked Boston won last year," said Karl, who has gone bleary-eyed reviewing those tapes for possible clues as to how to replicate that result.
Aside from the tenets that all teams try to employ against the Lakers -- put multiple bodies on Kobe Bryant and turn them into a jump-shooting team -- Karl saw some areas he felt the Nuggets could exploit in a long series. With his collection of big men -- Nene, Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen -- the Nuggets felt they closely resembled the 2007-08 version of the Celtics -- the version with Kevin Garnett. Boston employed a strategy for limiting the Lakers' post passes and deep touches at the rim that the Nuggets staff felt they could replicate.
After three games, it's worth wondering if perhaps the Nuggets were watching the wrong film. Against the Celtics in the Finals last year, Pau Gasol averaged 14.7 points and 10.2 rebounds; he's averaging 16.7 points and 14 rebounds in three games against Denver. Kobe? In six games against Boston, he averaged 25.7 points and shot .405 from the field and .321 from 3-point range. In three games against Denver, Bryant has scored 113 points, topping his own franchise record (109) for the first three games of a conference final, and is shooting .486 from the field and .500 from 3-point range. You don't need quantitative analysis -- only a calculator -- to figure out that Kobe's averaging 37.7 points per game in the series. Plain and simple, Denver can't win this series that way.
Even so, if Trevor Ariza hadn't stolen two sideline inbounds passes in the final half-minute of Games 1 and 3 -- and if the Nuggets hadn't missed 22 of 27 attempts from 3-point range in Game 3 -- Denver could just as easily be up 2-1 in the series. The wild card for the Lakers is the same one they wish they'd had last June against the Celtics: Andrew Bynum.
The 21-year-old 7-footer didn't show up at all on those Boston tapes from last year; he missed the entire playoffs with a left knee injury. Bynum's lack of impact since returning from a right knee injury suffered in January has developed into a touchy subject for Bynum and his irascible coach, Phil Jackson.
• West finals: Lakers 2, Nuggets 1
Jackson has said Bynum is playing limited minutes -- 18 per game in the conference finals -- because he lacks the stamina to stay on the court. Bynum has countered that he can't get any rhythm when he's sitting on the bench. The resulting quandary puts the Lakers right back where they were in last year's Finals -- without the added post presence that might've tipped the scales in the Boston series.
"If he plays well," Jackson said bluntly, "he'll have more time."
Bynum said Sunday his recovery is on a "minute-to-minute basis. If you're only playing 18 minutes, you can't really gauge if you're in a rhythm, you know what I mean?"
Bynum was beginning to play at an All-Star level when he got hurt. He had put together 12 straight double-digit scoring games and five straight double-doubles -- including a 42-point, 15-rebound performance against the Clippers -- before going down with a torn right MCL at Memphis on Jan. 31.
"He was unbelievable," Gasol said. "He was playing the best that he's been in his career and the best that I've seen him play. He was definitely dominating, confident and aggressive. No matter who he had on him, he was going to take him. So he was putting up huge numbers for two weeks straight, no dropdowns until he got hurt."
Now Bynum says his right knee is 85-90 percent, and a bulky brace he wears to stabilize it has limited his mobility. Despite his contention that more minutes will bring more consistency, Jackson is right on this one. Watching Bynum in the past two rounds of the playoffs, it's obvious his stamina and mobility fall off a cliff after a few trips up and down the floor.
"He's going up against some really good defensive players," Bryant said. "They're not going to let him catch it on the block and go to work. They're going to make him work, make him fight."
As Bynum fights for minutes and Jackson waits to see production before he doles them out, the Nuggets have to be wondering this: If a healthy and productive Bynum had shown up on those tapes from the Boston series, they probably wouldn't have been so eager to watch.
