Boom to bust: Forecasting college players' impact in NBA

It's the week of the NBA Draft.

And you know what that means, right?

It means a bunch of dudes who spent last year playing for free -- theoretically, at least -- will become millionaires the moment David Stern speaks their names. It's a wonderful, life-altering moment for all involved. And though in some cases it'll be money well spent, many first-round picks will be viewed as mistakes when they are bounced from the NBA in a few years, and banished to a career in Turkey or Puerto Rico (or both).

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Who will be who?

I'm as qualified as anybody to tell you, if only because the people whose careers actually revolve around projecting NBA players are notoriously hit-or-miss. In other words, I might be wrong about DeMar DeRozan, but I'll never be the guy who took Darko Milicic second overall (ahead of Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade), or even the guy who thought it was brilliant when it happened. So what I know going into this is that I can't possibly look as stupid as those people, which gives me the courage to predict how the college kids will translate to the NBA.

Thus, I'll do it now.

This is the NBA Draft Look Ahead ...

Player most likely to be a star: Despite what you might've read on the night of the lottery, there isn't a single NBA franchise that would've taken anybody other than Blake Griffin with the top pick. Not. A. One. And the reason is simple: Griffin has a combination of achievements, size, strength, athleticism and desire to be great that makes it difficult to envision a scenario where he isn't an elite player in this league for a decade. I love him. So will the Clippers.

Austin Daye might end up being an NBA bust, but at least he'll have a few million dollars for his troubles. (US Presswire)

Player most likely to be a bust: I've always found Austin Daye to be pleasant and wise. Which is why I differ from those who believe he's stupid for entering this draft clearly before he's ready to be a relevant NBA player. My question: What if Daye is entering this draft because he fears he might always be a slender finesse player who can look great individually but struggle in a five-on-five setting? What if Daye is concerned that another so-so season (from a statistical standpoint, he didn't really improve from his freshman to sophomore year) will have NBA general managers more concerned about an average college career than his upside? If that's the case, this is a good move because somebody is going to draft Daye high, make him a millionaire and then ... sit him on the bench or send him to the NBDL. I feel sorry for that team, particularly if that team needs help right now. But Daye will be rich either way. So good for him.

Player I like (but who scares me): Watch DeJuan Blair play, and you just know he's going to be a good NBA rebounder. But his knees are so messed up that many franchises are worried about selecting him, and I would be, too. If you have a weight problem and bad knees at the age of 20, it's reasonable to think those things will be problems going forward. Alas, I'm afraid they will be. So if Blair tears an ACL for the third time next season and balloons to 285 pounds, well, I warned you.

Safest pick in the draft (besides Blake Griffin): I'm not sure Stephen Curry will be an All-Star, but what I am certain of is that there's no way he'll be a bust or anything close to a bust. The Davidson star will be in the NBA for close to 15 years, and he'll create and make big shots along the way, just you watch.

Riskiest (high) pick in the draft (besides Austin Daye): I was actually a fan of B.J. Mullens before he enrolled at Ohio State, but I became less of one when it was clear Thad Matta didn't believe playing him a lot was the key to winning. Think about that. Mullens barely averaged 15 minutes per game in OSU's final four games, and that can't be a good sign. In fact, it reminds me of how Mark Turgeon used DeAndre Jordan, and that sure as hell wasn't a good sign.

Player who will be taken too low: Brandon Jennings is slipping in most mock drafts, which suggests folks aren't sure he'll be a good pro. But those folks are ignoring history, because if there's one reliable thing in sports it's that the top player in any particular high school class usually becomes a very good or great NBA player.

Check it:

Class of 2002 No. 1 player: Amare Stoudemire
Class of 2003 No, 1 player: LeBron James
Class of 2004 No. 1 player: Dwight Howard
Class of 2005 No. 1 player: Josh McRoberts
Class of 2006 No. 1 player: Greg Oden
Class of 2007 No. 1 player: O.J. Mayo

Poll Who will be the best NBA player? 54% Blake Griffin   6% DeMar DeRozan   20% Stephen Curry   11% Hasheem Thabeet   9% James Harden   Total Votes: 18261

Of that group, only McRoberts can be considered a bust. Maybe Oden (if you ignore the fact that injuries have hindered his development). But three (Stoudemire, James and Howard) of the other four players are stars, and the fourth (Mayo) just averaged 18.5 points as a rookie. Case you didn't know, Jennings was the No. 1 player in the Class of 2008. So if he's not a very good or great NBA player, he'll be an exception to a fairly reliable rule.

Another player who will be taken too low: Jeff Teague.

Yet another: Sam Young.

Three likely second-round picks who will make a roster: I'll take Patrick Mills, Danny Green and Jodie Meeks. Why? Because Mills can run a team, Green can do a little of everything and Meeks can really shoot. That'll be enough for them to earn NBA paychecks.

In five years, the top five college players from this draft will be ...

1. Blake Griffin
2. DeMar DeRozan
3. Stephen Curry
4. Hasheem Thabeet
5. James Harden