Lakers owner Jerry Buss paid $50,000 to compete in the World Series of Poker last weekend in Las Vegas. In a related story, the annual poker tournament that is NBA free agency was set to begin at 12:01 a.m. ET Wednesday, with much higher stakes but much smaller stacks of chips.
Throwing money around haphazardly is so 2007. If they haven't already, teams and free agents alike are about to learn that a new era has dawned. Billion-dollar bailouts and trillion-dollar deficits have trickled down to the sector of the economy known more for largesse than restraint.
|
|
| Charlie Villanueva might not get the amount of green he's hoping for. (Getty Images) |
A veteran like Jason Kidd -- who could push the Lakers, Cavs or Celtics over the top or set the table for the Knicks' anticipated play for LeBron James in 2010 -- could find a situation, though not necessarily a contract, to his liking. Same goes for Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess and Mike Bibby.
• Berger: Buzz | Free agents: East | West
In this environment, you're likely to hear more buzz about Marcin Gortat and Antonio McDyess than about the big names. This free-agent class will be rife with examples like Carlos Boozer, who only six months ago guaranteed that he'd opt out of his contract and become a free agent, only to change his mind as the deadline approached. As some team executives believed, Boozer decided it wouldn't be easy to get a new contract that paid him more than the $12.7 million he would make in Utah next season.
The same goes for Milwaukee's Charlie Villanueva, who became an unrestricted free agent when the Bucks decided not to extend him a qualifying offer. Some execs wonder if the market for Villanueva will yield much more than a deal starting at the mid-level exception, which is only $1 million more than the Bucks would've paid him on the one-year qualifier.
Several factors have made it so. For one, only a handful of teams -- Detroit, Oklahoma City and Memphis -- are flush with enough cap space to make a major push for a max free agent. At least half the league has taken the approach of getting their financial books in order for what will be a better class in 2010, led by LeBron, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire (if he isn't traded). Teams like Portland, Toronto, New York, New Jersey, Miami, Minnesota, Golden State, Phoenix, Sacramento and Dallas have roster -- if not cap -- flexibility to pull off sign-and-trades. Not all of them are motivated to do so.
The Rockets are. Houston, as you know, has a problem in that franchise center Yao Ming is facing uncertainty over when -- or if -- he will make it back from yet another foot injury. GM Daryl Morey is weighing whether to continue building around Yao or give up core pieces to position himself for a run at a superstar to replace him.
A prime free-agent destination like Cleveland has flexibility to fortify its acquisition of Shaquille O'Neal, but the most it can offer outside of a sign-and-trade is the mid-level exception starting at about $5.6 million. Is that enough for Kidd to make one last run at a title? Does Villanueva have the foresight to realize that better offers from better teams might be scarce?
Then you have the defending champion Lakers, who were holding their breath Tuesday to learn if Kobe Bryant would follow through on terminating his contract and then wait for Phil Jackson's future to be resolved. Bryant also has stated that he wants free agents Ariza and Lamar Odom back for another title run. If all goes well, Bryant is widely expected to re-sign with L.A.
So with only hours to go before the fun begins, here's my 15-man free-agent rotation:
Starting five
These guys will get theirs:
1. Hedo Turkoglu: Orlando's most important player during its run to the Finals, Turkoglu is in a position to set the market with Detroit or land with another contender, such as Portland, in a sign-and-trade.
2. Ben Gordon: The Pistons are said to be high on the scoring guard, who earned his cheddar during a stellar playoff against the Celtics. But what does that mean for Richard Hamilton?
3. Trevor Ariza: The Lakers have made it a priority to keep him, but Ariza will generate plenty of interest as a young, lower-priced commodity who is clearly on the rise after a breakout postseason in L.A.
4. Andre Miller: At 33, Miller won't be overwhelmed with multiyear offers, but sometimes it only takes one team with a need. Portland has aggressively pursued a ball-moving point guard all summer.
5. Paul Millsap: A cheaper, younger version of Boozer.
First off the bench
Not the paycheck they expected:
1. Shawn Marion: A sign-and-trade (Dallas or Knicks?) seems to be the most likely ending for Matrix's short stay north of the border. Clearly not a max player.
2. Jason Kidd: Dallas is making it a priority to re-sign him, but even at 36, Kidd will have options. Already scheduled to meet with the Knicks.
3. David Lee: The Knicks will call Lee's bluff, hoping that he's unable to land the $10 million per year he's seeking as a restricted free agent. Excellent sign-and-trade chip for Donnie Walsh.
4. Rasheed Wallace: Contenders like the Spurs, Cavs, Celtics and Magic will feel the need for 'Sheed, but only to a point. Can you say "mid-level !%!@% exception"?
5. Marcin Gortat: The "Polish Hammer" should send a thank-you note to Boozer, whose decision to stay in Utah could increase demand for Orlando's restricted free agent.
Garbage time
Time for a reality check:
1. Charlie Villanueva: Might find that unrestricted free agency isn't what it's cracked up to be, though Cleveland and Detroit will be in the mix.
2. Mike Bibby: Fallback option for point-guard hungry teams that can't land Miller, Kidd or Ramon Sessions.
3. Ron Artest: Do the Rockets want to pay him without knowing Yao's prognosis? Does Artest want to return without Yao?
4. Glen Davis: Any other year, Big Baby would've gotten a big pay day. This year, all he can expect is a modest raise.
5. Allen Iverson: His days as a max player are over. We'll find out if Iverson meant it when he said last season that he'd retire before coming off another team's bench.
