Too early to howl 'mistake' over drafting teen Wolf

How Ricky Rubio agreed to a buyout with his Spanish team that would've allowed him to join the Minnesota Timberwolves this season, only to change his mind and stay in Spain, isn't really important now. On Tuesday -- the most depressing day in Minnesota since, well, 24 hours earlier when Brett Favre said he might have a cracked rib -- team president David Kahn admitted that the hungry news cycle already has moved on to its next meal.

It has moved past the whirlwind of negotiations that took place over the weekend during Kahn's third trip to Spain this summer. Past Kahn's initial feeling of relief on Saturday night, when it appeared that he would return home with a commitment from Rubio in his pocket. And then past Kahn's disappointment upon learning that Rubio had backed out and was opting for a six-year contract with FC Barcelona over beginning his NBA career in the Twin Cities.

Ricky Rubio will remain royalty in Spain instead of a rookie in the NBA. (Getty Images)

By Tuesday, Kahn was saying on a conference call from Spain that coming to the NBA at age 18 might have been a mistake -- for Rubio and the Timberwolves -- anyway. Kahn immediately followed up with a little bit of what makes him a likeable, or at least sympathetic, figure: "I say this at the risk of trying to have it both ways."

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Everybody wants instant analysis. They want the second-day story on the first day. So in some places, you will read that it was a mistake for the Timberwolves to take their most important draft pick since the one that produced Kevin Garnett and use it on an 18-year-old boy who is intimidated by Minnesota. Not here. Kahn made the point repeatedly that he doesn't have a crystal ball, and neither do I.

"We can really twist ourselves up trying to figure out what the world will look like in two years," Kahn said. "There's so many things that could happen that you can't even pretend to predict."

So let's not pretend. Let's deal in reality. Jonny Flynn is the Timberwolves' starting point guard. Rubio is the king of Barcelona. And that's the way it will be for the better part of two years, until Rubio and the T-Wolves reach a very important intersection in the lives of both.

After the 2010-11 season, Rubio can be freed from his contract with Barcelona at a decidedly more desirable price than his contract with DKV Joventut prescribed. Barcelona wound up paying "a substantial amount" of the $8 million buyout (5.7 million Euros) to acquire Rubio, Kahn said. The Timberwolves' offer was comparable, fueled by sponsors willing to supplement the $500,000 Minnesota was permitted to contribute under NBA rules. But in two years, Rubio will be 20 and available at the bargain basement price of about $1.5 million (or 1 million Euros).

So then what? Kahn admitted that Rubio will be under no obligation to accept a buyout at that point and come to the NBA. By then, Flynn may very well be established as the Timberwolves' current and future point guard, with no assist from Rubio needed. Plus, Rubio's family and agent Dan Fegan will have had two years to practice their next power trip, which almost certainly will involve brokering a trade to an NBA team that is, frankly, in a better location than Minneapolis.

"When I met with Ricky, I explained to him that I can't predict the future," Kahn said. "I did specifically mention that Jonny would be two years ahead of him. And I also covered this with Ricky: That I felt very strongly that if you had a depth chart in training camp on Day 1, he would be listed as the No. 1 point guard. But now with him staying over here for two years, there's a chance that he wouldn't be."

As Natalie Portman once sang with Big Bird, things change.

"We have a season to play and we have a roster of players," Kahn said. "And I told Ricky that he has to understand now that I can't be thinking about him. And he did understand that, by the way. It's almost like when a player is injured, you sort of have to move on. So tomorrow we move on."

But the news cycle and basketball blogosphere won't tolerate a two-year Rubio blackout. Before the ink was dry on Rubio's buyout, already speculation was percolating that it was all a ruse so that Rubio could be traded to the Knicks. Great idea! Here is what I can report on that front, based on information from a high-level source involved in the process: It doesn't make any sense.

Now, if Flynn flourishes and the Rubio hype subsides, the Knicks will see what it would take to relieve Kahn of his headache. But a trade to any team this far from the 2011 buyout makes zero sense; the Knicks or anybody else would have to wait for Rubio just like the Timberwolves have to. What assets are you giving up now to get a player who won't walk through the door for two more years? (If you must know, Danilo Gallinari is the only Knick the Timberwolves would want. The Knicks -- who don't have a first-round pick to offer next year, either -- aren't trading him.)

So that's that. Rubio stays in Barcelona, and Kahn flies home to Minnesota on Wednesday fully prepared to face two years of questions about whether this was a mess he could've -- and should've -- avoided. He wouldn't touch the issue of whether the NBA should address the $500,000 cap on buyouts to free overseas players from their contracts, given that the topic is part of the ongoing collective bargaining talks. But he didn't dodge a more important question: Any regrets?

"No, not at all," Kahn said. "He's 18. And again, depending on what our circumstances are two years from now, I continue to believe that was the highest-value pick we could have made. ... There's no question we would've done this again. Now if you ask me five to seven years from now, looking back at the draft if there's somebody that could've been taken at that position, like any team would, you'd say, 'Well, we should've done that.' But, five to seven years from now is when that analysis needs to occur."

As true and valid as that is, don't count on it.