There was a moment outside the interview room at the Pepsi Center this past May that seemed to foretell things to come in the Western Conference. After turning back the Nuggets in the conference finals, Kobe Bryant embraced his friend, Carmelo Anthony, and said, "Keep your head up."
Denver had lost the last two games of the series, despite going to Los Angeles tied 2-2 and looking like a team that was fully capable of derailing the Lakers' championship run. Despite resisting the urge to make any major improvements in the offseason, the Nuggets are just as capable now as they were then.
The problem for the Nuggets is that the Lakers got better, and so did their chief competition in the Northwest Division. Besides adding veteran point guard Andre Miller, the Trail Blazers have the luxury of a young, developing roster that is likely to continue to improve from within. With a team like Portland in the division, the Nuggets have to wonder whether standing pat will be enough.
I'm picking Portland to win the Northwest, though not by much. Only six games separated the Blazers, Nuggets and Jazz last season. Expect more of the same.
But evidence is mounting that Portland is ready to take the next step, much the way Denver did last season. If so, Brandon Roy might finally get credit for being one of the budding superstars in the league. And if so, it will have much to do with the development of Greg Oden. With Shaq out of the West, the floor is open for the next dominant big man to step in.
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Regardless of when or if Utah trades Carlos Boozer, we know that three teams are going to the playoffs from the Northwest. But to me, one of the most interesting questions about the 2009-10 season is whether Oklahoma City or Minnesota is ready to make significant improvement. With Kevin Love out at least six weeks with a broken hand and Al Jefferson hobbled by a sore Achilles' tendon, the Timberwolves' rebuilding plan has taken a detour. Oklahoma City has youth, talent and cap flexibility to become a power down the road. But with so many of the top teams in the West getting better, my gut tells me the Thunder are still a year away from making big strides.
Predicted order of finish (2008-09 records)
1. Portland Trail Blazers (54-28)
2. Denver Nuggets (54-28)
3. Utah Jazz (48-34)
4. Minnesota Timberwolves (24-58)
5. Oklahoma City Thunder (23-59)
Portland Trail Blazers
If all goes according to plan: Miller gives Nate McMillan the ball-moving point guard he has been looking for, and Oden starts to show signs of dominating the way a No. 1 overall pick should. But the Blazers can attack you in so many ways. Miller perhaps will give Roy more freedom to create opportunities off the ball, while LaMarcus Aldridge completes an underrated Big Three. Portland comes at you in waves, with Nicolas Batum likely to start at small forward ahead of Travis Outlaw and Martell Webster. Rudy Fernandez might not be happy, but he's quite useful.
What could go wrong: With such a deep, versatile roster, McMillan faces the formidable challenge of putting the right combinations together on the floor. It's the hardest job of an NBA coach, and one that often gets overlooked. The second-hardest job is massaging egos, and McMillan has two point guards -- Miller, who came in out of shape, and Steve Blake, who knew he was losing his job -- with hurt feelings. If you're in the mood to feel old, go check out a Blazers game and watch Juwan Howard come off the bench in his 16th NBA season. Give him a hand if he needs it.
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| Portland will be in great shape if Greg Oden can take his preseason play into the regular season. (Getty Images) |
Denver Nuggets
If all goes according to plan: Chauncey Billups doesn't begin to show his age, Anthony takes another step after a breakout season of sorts in '08-09, and Arron Afflalo steps in as a capable replacement for Dahntay Jones at the two-guard. GM Mark Warkentien's acquisition of Afflalo is one of my favorite moves of the offseason. Why overpay for something that another play can give you for less? Rookie Ty Lawson also should give George Karl a reason to rest Billups strategically during the regular season so he's fresh for the playoffs.
What could go wrong: It's not so much about what could happen to the Nuggets; they're still intact, potent offensively and defend better than their reputation suggests. The problem is, teams like the Lakers, Spurs and Mavs got better and the Nuggets mostly stood still.
X-Factor: It might seem strange to call the star of the team the X-factor, but with Anthony it's actually true. He made major improvements across the board last season, especially with his commitment on the defensive end. You would expect a budding superstar to keep the momentum going, and if 'Melo continues his meteoric rise, he could provide the improvement Denver didn't get from splashy offseason moves.
Utah Jazz
If all goes according to plan: Jerry Sloan's Hall of Fame acceptance speech ends sometime between the All-Star Game and the trade deadline. (Just kidding, Jerry). Nobody has done it better, more consistently, or with more class than Sloan for the past two decades. The Jazz still have all their weapons, and still defend well enough -- unless they're playing the Lakers. Deron Williams just keeps getting better, and rookie Eric Maynor looked like a more than adequate backup in preseason. The problem of having two legitimate starting power forwards -- Boozer and Paul Millsap -- is a problem plenty of teams would like to have.
What could go wrong: This team looks kind of stuck to me. The Jazz might just be a 48- or 50-win team that can't get past the first or second round. After Boozer decided not to opt out, and Utah matched Portland's offer sheet for Millsap, luxury-tax payments are looming unless the Jazz move Boozer. That problem, along with finding a comfort zone for Andrei Kirilenko and getting enough perimeter scoring, must be solved before the Jazz can think about challenging the elite in the West.
X-Factor: Sloan knows he's going to get defense and steals from Ronnie Brewer. But if the 6-7 guard can develop more confidence in his shot, he would add another reliable option for the ball-moving Williams.
Minnesota Timberwolves
If all goes according to plan: Ricky Rubio stays overseas ... Love breaks his hand ... Kurt Rambis admits that Jonny Flynn and Ramon Sessions can't play together in the backcourt ... wow, this is some plan. But there are signs of progress. When you get rid of seven players from a team that won 24 games, how could it get worse? With Flynn running the point and Jefferson healthy again, the Wolves looked like they were headed in the right direction on paper. Then Jefferson suffered a setback with a sore Achilles and Love was shelved for at least six weeks.
What could go wrong: The Wolves need something to go right before we start wondering what could go wrong. A good start would be if Rambis found a way to maximize the backcourt production among Flynn, Sasha Pavlovic and Sessions. But it's a tricky proposition for a first-year coach trying to establish relationships.
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X-Factor: We know Jefferson can fill up a box score when he's healthy. We just don't know if he can stay on the court.
Oklahoma City Thunder
If all goes according to plan: GM Sam Presti has wisely established a long-term plan that includes collecting as many talented, young, low-priced players as possible and creating cap and roster flexibility for the future. In order for the future to be now, the Thunder would have to get a dramatic defensive improvement from Kevin Durant, a rookie-of-the-year-caliber season from James Harden, solid play (and good health) from big man Nenad Krstic and Etan Thomas, better post defense from Jeff Green, plus a few other surprises.
What could go wrong: The Thunder really don't have anything to lose but the patience of their fans, who might lose interest if they don't see results soon. As far as the product Presti and coach Scott Brooks are putting on the court this season, the expectations are so low that it will be hard for the Thunder to fail. It's too early to talk playoffs for this team, so just stop. Next year at this time, yes.
X-Factor: The good thing about having a thin rotation is that it creates opportunity. Enter D.J. White, who spent most of his rookie season getting better in the D-League. Brooks might as well give him some important minutes, because White has the tools to make a surprising impact if he gets a chance.
