Central preview: It's championship or bust for Cavs

The Cavaliers' first Central Division title since the bicentennial didn't do them much good in the Eastern Conference finals against Orlando. They need another one about as much as Shaquille O'Neal needs more Twitter followers.

Move along folks ... nothing to see here. The Cavs will cruise through the regular season, perhaps joining the Lakers and Celtics in a three-way assault on the Bulls' record 72-win season in 1995-96.

It would all be utterly meaningless without a championship.

By virtue of the Big Shaquisition, the Cavs served notice that they are not about to lose LeBron James in 2010 without a fight. The King finally has a dominant big man/court jester. The open question is whether Shaq has enough left to deliver the championship that has eluded Cleveland fans for half a century.

That drama won't play out in all its glory until May and June. Until then, we're left to wonder if anyone else from the Central is ready to play a remotely significant role in the East.

The Bulls have the momentum, coming off one of the greatest playoff series in NBA history against the Celtics. But they lost Ben Gordon and didn't replace his scoring. Look for the Bulls to take a step back.

The Pistons excused themselves from the 2010 free-agent bonanza by nabbing Gordon and Charlie Villanueva in the opening hours of the 2009 free-agent period. Many pundits yawned, but I think Detroit will make more strides than people expect.

That leaves us with the Bucks and Pacers, two teams that will be in the thick of a fight with the dregs of the other two divisions to see who is mediocre enough to grab the No. 8 seed -- and with it, the right to get swept by the Cavs in the first round.

Despite Joe Alexander's latest injury – he's out 8-12 weeks with a torn hamstring -- I think Milwaukee will have enough athleticism and versatility to hold off Indiana. Neither team, of course, has enough going for it to lure LeBron in 2010.

Predicted order of finish (2008-09 records)
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (66-16)
2. Detroit Pistons (39-43)
3. Chicago Bulls (41-41)
4. Milwaukee Bucks (34-48)
5. Indiana Pacers (36-46)

Cleveland Cavaliers

If all goes according to plan: Shaq's presence alone in the paint will make defenses a half-step slower in converging on LeBron, who is so good at making the right play and the extra pass that he'll make them pay. Shaq isn't what he used to be, but he's still an efficient post scorer. When Zydrunas Ilgauskas is on the floor, they become a jump-shooting team again. Fortunately for LeBron, GM Danny Ferry added an underrated wing player in Anthony Parker, who will more than make up for the uncertainty surrounding Delonte West.

Cleveland won't miss Ben Wallace, but will miss Joe Smith. Backups J.J. Hickson and Darnell Jackson will have to play significant roles, especially on the defensive end. Eventually, Leon Powe will be back to add some underrated defense, rebounding and garbage baskets.

What could go wrong: The Cavs became too reliant on the jump shot last season, getting 70 percent of their attempts that way, according to 82games.com. Only 5 percent of Cleveland's attempts were dunks, something that will change with Shaq. But assistant John Kuester, the de factor offensive coordinator who now coaches the Pistons, will be missed. His biggest impact was tweaking the Cavs' early offense, and it showed in the fact that they scored their most points (27.2 per game) in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. As the Suns learned the hard way, Shaq's plodding halfcourt style will drag that number way down.

Ben Gordon is a big offseason acquisition for the Pistons. (Getty Images)

X-Factor: Powe was one of the biggest keys during the Celtics' championship run two years ago, and Boston missed him almost as much as Kevin Garnett in the playoffs last season. Once he returns from offseason knee surgery around the All-Star break, Powe will serve as the next-best thing to a trade-deadline acquisition and make the Cavs' front line deeper and more versatile.

Detroit Pistons

If all goes according to plan: Joe Dumars envisions the backcourt trio of Gordon, Rodney Stuckey and Rip Hamilton as a modern-day version of his Bad Boys. It's a stretch to put these guys in the same breath as Dumars, Isiah Thomas and Vinnie Johnson, but the comparison at least speaks to how Dumars wants Kuester, hired away from the Cavs, to use the three guards. There will be times when all three are on the court together, but Gordon would provide the firepower off the bench in a perfect world. Kuester will have added flexibility because the players trust point guard Will Bynum, who can play with Stuckey and Gordon/Hamilton in smaller lineups.

Villanueva is a big downgrade from Rasheed Wallace, but at least he raises the athleticism of a team that was getting old. Tayshaun Prince can still defend anyone, Jason Maxiell is a good energy player and Dumars knocked it out of the park with his draft picks. Austin Daye and DaJuan Summers both have a chance to make an impact.

What could go wrong: Michael Curry couldn't get Stuckey, Hamilton and Allen Iverson to co-exist. The job will be equally difficult for Kuester with Gordon plugged into the equation. Hamilton still views himself as the offensive leader of the team, but Gordon will want the ball late in possessions and in end-of-quarter, end-of-game situations. Dividing the minutes and shots will be a difficult job for a first-year coach, even one whose specialty is offense. If the Pistons get off to a slow start and the backcourt rotation isn't working out to Hamilton's liking, the trade rumblings will come next.

X-Factor: Chris Wilcox doesn't get a lot of pub, but he can be a valuable, efficient post presence. There's no reason he shouldn't be starting ahead of Kwame Brown, beginning with reason No. 1: Kwame Brown isn't good.

Chicago Bulls

If all goes according to plan: Replacing Gordon's offense doesn't seem so daunting when you realize he accounted for about seven baskets a game. Surely Derrick Rose could look for his shot a little more, and the Bulls could go inside more than they did last season, when more than half their points came on jump shots, according to 82games.com. Luol Deng was sorely missed in the playoffs, and his defense plus inside-outside scoring threat will account for some of what's missing without Gordon. John Salmons moves to the two-guard as Gordon's actual replacement, and Kirk Hinrich will be useful as part of a three-guard lineup that was one of Vinny Del Negro's most effective -- and least utilized -- combinations last season. Joakim Noah improved as the season went on and is one of the biggest pests in the league.

What could go wrong: The Bulls don't have a single scorer who's good enough to fill Gordon's void. So if anyone tries to do it alone, it could get ugly. Rose, a savvy floor leader, probably won't let that happen. But as the point guard, he's going to have to figure out who is going to deliver for him. He has jump shooters he can count on in Brad Miller, Hinrich and Deng. But unless Tyrus Thomas or Noah can establish a consistent post presence, Rose might wind up having to carry more of an offensive load than he wants to.

X-Factor: Rookie James Johnson opened some eyes in preseason with his rebounding and ability to get quality looks at the basket. Del Negro isn't afraid to play rookies, and Johnson has so far earned his trust.

Milwaukee Bucks

If all goes according to plan: If we're referring to the plan that resulted in dumping Richard Jefferson's salary and letting Villanueva and Ramon Sessions leave town, then the season already has been a success for the Bucks. But a couple of factors could make this team surprisingly interesting. If Andrew Bogut and Michael Redd are healthy, they'll account for the majority of the inside and outside production, respectively. The Bucks also added Hakim Warrick, who will have a chance to put up the proverbial "big numbers on a bad team."

But wait ... the Bucks might not be that bad, after all. There will be a steep learning curve with rookie point guard Brandon Jennings, but the Bucks love his aggressiveness and pass-first mentality. Carlos Delfino, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Ersan Ilyasova won't grab headlines, but all three will make important contributions.

What could go wrong: Sadly, it already has with news that Alexander will be out 8-12 weeks with a torn hamstring. This is not the way GM John Hammond wanted his 2008 lottery pick to bounce back from an injury-plagued rookie season. Plus, as high as the Bucks are on Jennings, coach Scott Skiles will have to display an uncanny (for him) patience with the rookie's copious turnovers. Skiles doesn't smile much as it is; wait until Jennings throws the ball over the baseline cameramen on three straight possessions.

Poll Who will win the Central Division? 8% Bucks   11% Bulls   69% Cavaliers   4% Pacers   8% Pistons   Total Votes: 3174

X-Factor: Delfino is a solid backup who can shoot with range and handle the ball if needed. Nice pickup if he does what he did for Detroit and Toronto before playing in Russia last season.

Indiana Pacers

If all goes according to plan: At least we don't have to spend the first 3½ months of the season wondering when and where Jamaal Tinsley is getting traded. From that standpoint, the Pacers have turned the page and are now on to ... what, exactly?

Well, they have an All-Star in Danny Granger, a player returning from injury (at some point) who is very important to their chances of winning (Mike Dunleavy) and a lottery pick who has a chance to make an impact (Tyler Hansbrough). Jim O'Brien's teams always shoot plenty of 3-pointers and try to out-pace opponents, and this team will be no different. Indiana was a terrible defensive team last season, and Larry Bird addressed that by shedding Jarrett Jack and adding Dahntay Jones. If Hansbrough doesn't lose significant time to shin injuries that hindered him in preseason, he'll add a toughness element that was missing last season. There's talent here, but ...

What could go wrong: It's not clear how the talent fits together. The Pacers have more depth than they did last season, which will allow O'Brien to keep fresh legs on the floor and play his style. But with so many new players, it will be difficult to ratchet up the defensive intensity without sacrificing the one thing the Pacers do well, which is shoot more than their opponent.

X-Factor: Solomon Jones barely got off the bench during three seasons in Atlanta, but his athleticism and post defense could help the Pacers as they try to achieve some semblance of balance on both ends of the floor.