Pacific preview: Lakers can look down on division from on high
Last we saw Kobe Bryant (after a game that counted, anyway), he was being whisked down the hallway at Orlando's Amway Arena after winning his fourth NBA title. Foremost among his thoughts was a long vacation on his favorite beach in Cabo. A well deserved respite, for sure.
For the first time in years, Bryant could relax. The weight of the can't-win-without-Shaq nonsense having been lifted, and with no Team USA obligations this past summer, the 31-year-old Bryant finally got a chance to rest his body, which has withstood the test of 13 NBA seasons.
Talk of an extension with the Lakers has subsided, but that's only because Bryant's future is no longer an issue. He's a Laker for the foreseeable future, one who seems to be thoroughly enjoying the ride instead of being tempted by potentially greener pastures.
Why leave L.A. when Phil Jackson isn't ready to retire yet and when Jerry Buss never fails to keep you surrounded with championship talent? The Lakers survived Lamar Odom's flirtation with free agency -- not to mention his made-for-TMZ union with Khloe Kardashian -- and signed renowned Kobe agitator Ron Artest to replace Trevor Ariza. Clearly, the Lakers have the talent to win another title. It's only a question of background noise and playoff matchups, neither of which is easy to predict.
One thing we know for sure: The Lakers' competition won't come from within their own division.
Credit the Suns for moving past the Shaq era and getting back to their run-and-gun style, which will please Steve Nash and make them fun to watch again. Praise be to the Clippers, who have a realistic chance to escape their hideous past -- as long as you vow not to be disappointed if they fail. Thank God for the Warriors, who will provide the incomparable entertainment value of an exciting, youthful, talented roster gripped by organizational chaos.
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And finally, we have the Kings, whose freefall has been halted by a commitment to stop wasting money on marginal players who have no chance of restoring the once-proud franchise's winning ways. We're not saying the Kings are going to be good, but at least they're no longer going to be wasteful.
Predicted order of finish (2008-09 records)
1. Los Angeles Lakers (65-17)
2. Phoenix Suns (46-36)
3. Los Angeles Clippers (19-63)
4. Golden State Warriors (29-53)
5. Sacramento Kings (17-65)
Los Angeles Lakers
If all goes according to plan: The Lakers have the talent to join the Celtics and perhaps the Cavs in an assault on 70-plus wins, though Jackson maintains that a West Coast team is at a huge disadvantage in any such pursuit due to travel and jetlag. The actual number of regular-season victories is immaterial; the Lakers will be around deep into June.
The question is whether the Ariza-for-Artest swap has kept them head-and-shoulders above San Antonio and Denver. While so much focus will be on Artest, the answer really can be found in the 7-foot body of Andrew Bynum. If Jackson can coax a healthy, semi-dominant season out of Bynum -- who turns 22 on opening night, just in time to receive his first championship ring -- then the Lakers will be almost impossible to stop.
What could go wrong: Bynum has completed only one season without significant injury disruption in his four-year career. It's time to start wondering whether it's bad luck or something more insidious.
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| Time will tell if Ron Artest accepts his role in the triangle offense. (AP) |
X-Factor: Though Fisher has displayed no obvious signs of decline, the time is right for Jackson to utilize Shannon Brown more. In terms of adjusted plus-minus, Brown was just as effective as Pau Gasol when he was on the court -- but was on the court only 3 percent of the time.
Phoenix Suns
If all goes according to plan: We know the Suns can score, and they will do so even more efficiently this season without Shaq putting the brakes on their running game. In a perfect world, the freewheeling Nash will have the engine humming once again, and Amar'e Stoudemire will return to his All-Star form after spending the summer recuperating from eye surgery. Rookie Earl Clark could bring a much-needed defensive boost and can play multiple positions. Replacing Matt Barnes with free agent Channing Frye gives Nash another pick-and-pop option and a mismatch for opposing power forwards who don't like to leave the paint.
What could go wrong: It's a stretch to think the Suns can effectively reinvent themselves so quickly after venturing in the plodding, halfcourt direction only last season. And once again, defense will be a problem. With Nash struggling to stop penetration, there's still nobody capable of protecting the basket. Robin Lopez has the inclination to defend, but he's out 6-8 weeks with a broken foot. And even in his best days, Stoudemire was a non-factor on defense.
Dumping Shaq's contract cleared space for next summer, but the Suns put themselves back over the luxury tax by re-signing Nash and Grant Hill. There's been no directive from cash-strapped owner Robert Sarver to get under the tax, but that could change if the Suns struggle out of the gate.
X-Factor: Louis Amundson appeared in all 31 games Alvin Gentry coached last season. Despite getting back to the Mike D'Antoni style, Gentry is going to need someone to play the role of scrapper/defensive specialist. By process of elimination, Amundson fits that description.
Los Angeles Clippers
If all goes according to plan: We've been hearing about the Clippers' best-laid plans for years, so why will this one be any different? Blake Griffin is not Michael Olowokandi, that's why. But the Clippers have far more reasons to be optimistic than the latest No. 1 pick to wander into Donald Sterling's uncomfortable embrace. If Baron Davis bounces back from an abysmal first season in L.A., and if Eric Gordon continues to improve, and if Chris Kaman returns to 2007-08 form after an injury-ravaged 2008-09, this could be the year the Clips take the next step toward respectability. Those are a lot of ifs, but these are the Clippers we're talking about.
What could go wrong: Mike Dunleavy's team has too much frontcourt depth, and he needs to find someone -- anyone -- who can be more productive at small forward than Al "Chuck and Duck" Thornton. Rasual Butler is a start, but he's not a bona fide NBA starter. But these are small problems compared to what the Clippers are normally facing.
X-Factor: DeAndre Jordan had an encouraging rookie season and put up good numbers in preseason. If Kaman or Marcus Camby get hurt -- or traded -- Jordan could step in and provide quality minutes.
Golden State Warriors
If all goes according to plan: The plan in Golden State is a mess, from Stephen Jackson's desire to be traded to the surplus of combo guards to the finicky, mad-scientist lineup concoctions that coach Don Nelson will be scribbling down from night to night. The 'Dubs have no shortage of offensive firepower, and have the ability to confuse and overwhelm opponents for stretches with unorthodox lineups. Anthony Randolph is ready for a breakout season, and the perimeter threats are dangerous across the board -- from Monta Ellis to rookie Stephen Curry, to Jackson, Anthony Morrow and slasher Corey Maggette.
What could go wrong: There's no D in Oakland, whether you're talking about the Raiders or the Warriors. And the Warriors did nothing to improve their defensive deficiencies in the offseason. Nelson has assembled an impressive array of shoot-first guards, but no one to distribute the ball. And then there's Jackson, who almost certainly will be the first or second player traded this season, with pennies on the dollar coming back in return.
X-Factor: Kelenna Azubuike is an intriguing wing player who can shoot with range, create off the dribble and generally create havoc for the opponent when he's on the floor. Too bad he's stuck on a team with five other players who do the same thing.
Sacramento Kings
If all goes according to plan: Some veteran coaches wait until the talent is assembled before they take jobs. (See Jordan, Eddie, and Saunders, Flip). Paul Westphal apparently likes to do it the hard way. But Westphal enjoys coaching inexperienced players more than most, so the Sacramento job could be the perfect fit for him. He better enjoy it, because the Kings are still a long way from contenting.
Westphal was the big-ticket acquisition for the Kings, who otherwise did nothing but sign minimum-salary stopgaps/projects (Sean May, Desmond Mason). Andres Nocioni adds some much needed ruggedness. But Sacramento's best move will turn out to be drafting Tyreke Evans; I don't care if he's a pure point guard or not, he'll challenge Griffin for Rookie of the Year. Kevin Martin is an elite talent just crying out for running mates. If he can hang in there one more year, the Kings will be in position to spend again.
What could go wrong: If Evans doesn't work out at the point -- and many predict he won't -- then the acquisition of Sergio Rodriguez will prove to be critical. Not much else could go wrong, because the Kings know what they are and recognize the work that's ahead of them. The worst thing that could happen is the failure to secure funding for a new arena, which could lead to the organization packing up and heading to Anaheim.
X-Factor: Omri Casspi will be more than a curiosity as the NBA's first Israeli-born player. He'll be a solid contributor as a combination 3-4 forward. Not only that, Casspi has vowed to find quality falafel on the NBA circuit before his rookie season is over.
