Bulls could go from marginal to marvelous by playing their cap right

At the United Center in mid-December, when the Bulls were busy going through the motions in losses to the Celtics and Lakers, it appeared to me that Vinny Del Negro knew. He knew it was only a matter of time.

Like anybody else, a coach knows when he's about to get canned. His DNA kicks in, and he starts issuing thinly veiled statements about injuries and "young players developing" and all the great effort his team is giving him -- even when it isn't true.

League sources believe the Bulls will try to package Tyrus Thomas in a significant deal. (Getty Images)

There were rumblings that the team was considering elevating assistant coach Pete Myers -- or John Paxson, if he wasn't so thin-skinned -- to replace Del Negro. By the end of the month, the Bulls stumbled into Madison Square Garden having just blown a 35-point lead in a staggering home loss to Sacramento and gave no effort in an 88-81 loss to the Knicks. At one point in the game, the Bulls had been outscored 75-24 since the third quarter against Sacramento.

But the calendar has flipped to February, and Del Negro is still standing -- still coaching. And before losing two consecutive to the Clippers and Sixers, the Bulls had become the first team in NBA history to win five in a row on the road against teams with winning records.

The two losses dropped the Bulls below .500 again after they had finally climbed above that mark for the first time since Nov. 19. But as dismal as things once looked for the Bulls, they've reached a crossroads that could present the biggest opportunity for this franchise since it drafted Michael Jordan in 1984.

Sources say the team is looking seriously at several trade options that could unleash enough 2010 cap space to sign not one but two marquee free agents. Here's how the math computes: If the Bulls didn't make any trades before the Feb. 18 deadline, kept their first-round pick and let their free agents walk, they'd have about $16.5 million in cap space -– assuming the cap is $52 million, roughly the midpoint of early projections. That's enough to sign one max free agent, and league execs believe Chicago native Dwyane Wade would be the Bulls' primary target, with Joe Johnson a close second.

But that figure doesn't include a $14.2 million cap hold for Tyrus Thomas, space that must be allocated to him that includes the $6.3 million qualifying offer he'll be due as a restricted free agent. That's why league sources believe the Bulls will try to package Thomas in a significant deal for expiring contracts -- such as a proposal under consideration that would also send Kirk Hinrich to Boston for Ray Allen's $19.7 million expiring deal -- or in a separate deal to one of several Western Conference contenders that have inquired about Thomas' availability.

If the Bulls could move Hinrich and Thomas -- who has long been attractive to the Celtics -- they'd be looking at more than $20 million of space. If they could find a taker for John Salmons, they'd be closing in on enough money to land two significant free agents. While everyone continues to focus on the Knicks and Nets as potential winners of the free-agent summer of 2010, this scenario would put the Bulls in a position to steal the show.

Given the cap flexibility it would yield, a deal including Hinrich and Thomas for Allen (with other pieces to satisfy salary requirements) would be a no-brainer. Even if they continued their post-Christmas resurgence, the Bulls still lack the offensive co-pilot Derrick Rose needs to be at his best. If they did nothing, they'd be looking at maybe earning the eighth seed and a first-round exit at the hands of the Cavs.

The Bulls are 1-6 this season when Hinrich doesn't play and 7-15 without Thomas. But as versatile and valuable as Hinrich is, particularly on defense, Allen's 3-point shooting would make the Bulls a tougher out in the playoffs. That's a rental that would be worthwhile, considering the upside that would come with Allen's massive expiring contract. Moving Thomas would relieve the Bulls of his $14.2 million cap hold and spare them the embarrassment of losing him as a free agent after acquiring him in a trade for the No. 4 pick in the 2006 draft.

Why would the Celtics do it? If they did, it would be with much hesitation. But if Boston continues to struggle, at some point it will be time to address the fact that the Celtics will still be over the cap this coming summer even after Allen's contract falls off the books. Other than sign-and-trades, they wouldn't have money to go free-agent shopping anyway. Getting Hinrich for Allen would at least give them a serviceable -- and younger -- replacement at less than half the price. Getting Thomas would allow them to fortify their depth in the frontcourt, which has been dragged down by age and Kevin Garnett's balky knee.

The other issue clouding all of this is the same one that will hang over all of the blockbuster trade talks that will happen between now and Feb. 18. Who wants to be the team that gives the Bulls -- or the Wizards, Knicks, Rockets, name the team -- the cap space it could use to steal Wade, Johnson, LeBron James, Chris Bosh or two of the above? Example: The Cavs could use a versatile defender like Jared Jeffries to slow down Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, or Rashard Lewis in a playoff series. But do the Cavs want to take Jeffries' $6.9 million salary off the Knicks' 2010-11 books and watch them use it to sweeten their offer for LeBron?

Then there is the matter that has been up in the air since December: If the Bulls find a way to unlock all this cap space, who's the coach? Del Negro has made it this far, but few believe he'd survive an aggressive remaking of the roster through free agency.

In the meantime, the Bulls soldier on with Rose carrying them on the strength of a series of spectacular performances that have saved Del Negro's job and elevated them -- however tenuously -- into the seventh playoff spot in the East.

But in the United Center, where Jordan long ago hung six championship banners, there are bigger and far more important issues on the horizon. The next two weeks could present the most important moment for this franchise since Jordan stood at the left elbow in Utah, his shooting hand held aloft, watching his last title-winning shot float toward the rim.