With or without 'Melo, Nuggets set up for free fall

For me, it's the little moments -- the ones never seen on TV or in news conferences, the ones that happen in backrooms or corridors throughout the NBA -- that tell the real story of the struggle for supremacy in this sport. And so for the purposes of this story, I take you back to one of those moments -- outside the interview room at the Pepsi Center two years ago, after the Lakers scraped past Carmelo Anthony and the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference finals.

There, in the hallway leading to the locker rooms, Anthony embraced his friend and foe, Kobe Bryant, after Bryant had stepped over him into the NBA Finals. It was 'Melo, hanging his head in defeat, recognizing that he was so close to getting over the hurdle all great players must climb.

Kenyon Martin and Carmelo Anthony might be in for a rough season, if they're still teammates. (Getty Images)

"Keep your head up, baby," Bryant said to him in the hallway, and 'Melo nodded and promised that, yeah, he'd do that.

Much has transpired since then. Bryant and the Lakers have won two more championships. But last season, it was Steve Nash and the Phoenix Suns who played the role of 'Melo and the Nuggets in the conference finals. Having endured the frightening impact of coach George Karl's battle with throat cancer, the Nuggets took a step back last season, winning 53 games but losing to Utah in the first round. Now, it appears that their quest to join the league's elite could be coming to a spectacular end.

Cleveland is the obvious choice for the team that will take the biggest step back this season; without You Know Who, the Cavaliers figure to tumble from a 61-win title contender to a rebuilding squad struggling to win 25 games. So like Royce Young, who looked beyond the obvious in Miami for his team that will make the biggest improvement (the Bulls), I'm leaving the Cavs out of my hunt for the team poised for the biggest decline.

A compelling case can be made for the Suns. Only a few months removed from their conference finals loss to the eventual champion Lakers, the Suns finally lost Amar'e Stoudemire after flirting for two years with the prospect of trading the dynamic power forward. Simultaneously, Phoenix's front office cleared out; Steve Kerr went back to the broadcast booth and David Griffin decided it was time to move on. It was a wise choice. The ageless Nash will be challenged without Stoudemire to partner with on pick-and-rolls, and Phoenix overpaid for Hakim Warrick and Channing Frye. After a meandering, disappointing season in Toronto, Hedo Turkoglu has a lot to prove.

But the Suns still have a young core, an offensive style that is exceedingly difficult to defend and stability at the top with coach Alvin Gentry, whose stock rose immeasurably during the Suns' run to the conference finals. To me, the future looks a lot bleaker for Phoenix's predecessor in the conference finals, which is why I'm picking the Nuggets as the team most likely to stumble in 2010-11.

Karl, thankfully, remains on the road to recovery and is expected back on the sideline. His presence and quirky brand of leadership are desperately needed, given that even in the best of times, the Nuggets are a team of headstrong personalities and festering immaturities; they need a strong hand on the wheel. But Chauncey Billups is a year older, and there are rumblings from Turkey that he could be replaced in the starting lineup by Eric Gordon when Team USA opens the medal round Monday at the FIBA World Championships.

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Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen, both recovering from knee surgery, are expected to miss significant time at the start of the season, and J.R. Smith finally has worn out his welcome. The Nuggets have shown patience beyond reason with Smith, from his role in the Madison Square Garden brawl in 2006 to his frequent episodes of griping and 3-point jacking. Now, Denver police have re-opened an investigation into an incident at the team's practice facility in which Smith allegedly choked a non-NBA player who was training with him. With Smith's biggest supporter, 2009 executive of the year Mark Warkentien, having been shown the door along with VP of player personnel Rex Chapman, one of the first jobs for new GM Masai Ujiri will be to dump Smith for whatever scraps he can get in return.

All this, and we haven't even gotten to the biggest problem facing the Nuggets: Anthony's future. As CBSSports.com first reported Aug. 10 , 'Melo's advisers already have begun pushing his desire for a trade to the Knicks or Magic; since then, the Rockets and Nets have emerged on Melo's wish list. Anthony still hasn't budged on a three-year, $65 million extension offer, and for good reason. He wanted to see how the offseason would unfold, and hasn't found much to like. The only significant addition was Al Harrington, a sweetheart of a guy who will fill in nicely while Martin and Andersen are shelved but who also will join the Denver culture of jacking up shots first and asking questions later.

Neither Anthony nor anyone from his camp has commented publicly on his desire to move on, and sources say the Nuggets are flatly cutting off trade inquiries. But if Anthony still hasn't signed his extension by the February trade deadline, all signs point to him being dealt to a team of his choice; no team would give up significant assets without being assured of 'Melo's willingness to extend.

Ujiri is a respected personnel man who was with the Nuggets when they drafted Anthony, so the team is hoping he can resuscitate the organization's relationship with its superstar. But if Griffin, an established, highly respected (and out-of-work) executive didn't want to join the Nuggets' chaotic front-office structure, what kind of message did that send to Anthony?

"I think we're all right," Billups said. "Of course, with 'Melo, we're still right in the mix. We signed Al this summer and I think that's a good signing for the way we play. We're a little banged up right now; Birdman and Kenyon probably will miss the start of the season. But if we get those guys back, shoot, we're all right. If we get George back, we're right in the mix, man."

Billups is solidly in the minority in this opinion. With or without Anthony, the Nuggets appear poised for a fall.