2011 Draft Prep: Putting Peyton in his place
Fantasy owners are in a frenzy following the news that Colts quarterback Peyton Manning might not only miss Week 1 of the regular season with his neck problem, but he could be out for several weeks -- or possibly the entire year.
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For those of you who already drafted Manning as your starter, hopefully you took a capable backup for Week 1 and beyond. And if you're in scramble mode, some quarterbacks available to you are Donovan McNabb, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Colt McCoy, David Garrard, Chad Henne, Matt Hasselbeck and Kerry Collins, who would start for the Colts in Manning's absence. All those quarterbacks are owned in 66 percent of leagues or fewer on CBSSports.com.
Now, if you're still doing your drafts leading up to the start of the regular season Thursday night, we'll look at the Average Draft Position on how to approach Manning and everyone else. His ADP still shows he's the No. 5 quarterback overall behind Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick, Tom Brady and Drew Brees, and he's ahead of Philip Rivers.
But following all the news leading up to this week, Manning has fallen to the fourth round in some drafts. In looking ahead to the next few days, plan to target Manning in Round 5 or later.
I emphasize the word target because unless the Colts place Manning on injured reserve, he is still expected to play this season even if he's out for the first four or five games. You can now draft Manning after Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger come off the board in Round 5, and just make sure you take another quarterback soon like Josh Freeman, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco or Kevin Kolb to cover yourself.
I have three drafts remaining prior to Thursday, and I will look to take Manning if he falls to the right spot unless we get word that he's done for the year. But if Manning can return in the early part of the season then he should still post outstanding stats, and I would be happy to have him on my team.
What to do with Addai and the running backs?
Joseph Addai is the No. 28 running back being drafted in Round 7. That's still a good spot for him even with Manning's injury.
The Colts will likely lean on Addai and their running game more if Manning is out, but opposing teams will know that as well. We'll also find out if the Colts can run the ball without the threat of an elite passing game.
Addai is worth drafting as a No. 3 Fantasy running back, but he should not be considered a starter in the majority of leagues. He will still share carries with Donald Brown and rookie Delone Carter, who could be working at the goal line.
Brown is being drafted as the No. 54 running back in Round 14, and Carter is being two spots behind him, also in Round 14. Carter has slightly more upside in standard leagues since he could lead the Colts in rushing touchdowns this season.
Can Wayne, Collie and Garcon hold up without Manning?
Reggie Wayne is the No. 8 receiver being drafted in Round 3, Pierre Garcon is the No. 26 receiver being drafted in Round 7 and Austin Collie is one spot behind Garcon, also in Round 7.
Wayne should remain a No. 1 Fantasy receiver even with Manning out since he will still see plenty of targets. He also showed in the preseason he could work with other quarterbacks when he caught six passes for 105 yards and a touchdown from Curtis Painter against the Packers, and Collins will find him as often as possible.
He should not be considered a Top 5 Fantasy receiver coming into the year, and he's a borderline Top 10 option. But if Wayne is sitting there in Round 4 and you need a No. 2 receiver at that point, pounce on him and consider that a potential steal.
Collie and Garcon, however, are a little more difficult to deal with. Both should still be considered No. 3 Fantasy options, but Garcon would not be a weekly starter in the majority of leagues without Manning. And Collie has the concussion history and now a lingering knee problem hanging over his head.
I still believe in Collie as a starting Fantasy receiver if he has Manning for a full year, but take away Manning and that lowers Collie's value. He should only be drafted as a reserve if Manning is out for a lengthy period of time.
What happens now with Clark?
Clark is still being drafted as the No. 2 tight end behind Antonio Gates in Round 4. But I consider Clark the No. 5 tight end behind Gates, Jason Witten, Jermichael Finley and Vernon Davis because of Manning's status.
Like Wayne, Clark should still remain productive and is a must-start option heading into the season even if Collins is the starter. He will likely fall on Draft Day now, and he should present tremendous value.
So if you're the type of owner who waits on a tight end, let someone else draft Gates, Witten, Finley and Davis beginning in Round 4, and you might be able to land Clark in Round 6. He could turn out to be great Draft Day value if Manning comes back at 100 percent early in the year.
Final ADP review
The first round of the majority of drafts on CBSSports.com looks like this: Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, Andre Johnson, Tom Brady, Maurice Jones-Drew and Michael Turner.
Foster and Chris Johnson fluctuated the most with their injury and contract status, respectively, but both remained first-round draft picks in the majority of leagues. Owners stuck by Jones-Drew despite his knee situation, and it appears like he will reward them by being 100 percent healthy for Week 1.
I was surprised to see three quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 and only one receiver, but Fantasy owners like taking Rodgers, Vick and Brady early to lock them up. I still prefer to draft two receivers picking near the end of Round 1, and in some leagues Calvin Johnson and Roddy White were also first-round picks.
Quarterback observations
The group of quarterbacks that could decide a majority of Fantasy leagues includes Roethlisberger, Freeman, Eli Manning, Stafford, Flacco, Bradford, Kolb and Jay Cutler. Depending on the size of your league, one or two of these quarterbacks could be your starter, especially now with Peyton Manning's status unknown.
Roethlisberger, Freeman, Eli Manning and Stafford were all drafted in Round 5 or later, and each has plenty of upside. The key is what you did with your first four or more picks, but you should have a quality team with a quarterback who could easily emerge as a Top 10 option, especially Roethlisberger, Freeman and Stafford.
Running back observations
Three running backs who improved their draft value from the start of training camp were Jahvid Best, Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower all due to injuries. Best benefited with Mikel Leshoure (Achilles' tendon) out, Wells lost competition when Ryan Williams (knee) was lost for the year and Hightower established himself as the starter with Ryan Torain (hand) out.
Best was drafted as the No. 20 running back in Round 4, Wells went as the No. 31 running back in Round 7 and Hightower was the No. 36 running back in Round 9. Keep in mind this is just the ADP, and these running backs went higher in drafts leading up to the season.
Two running backs who dropped from the start of training camp are Ryan Grant and Ryan Mathews. Grant is being drafted as the No. 22 running back in Round 5, and Mathews is going one spot after him, also in Round 5.
Both running backs were drafted as early as Round 3 in some leagues, but they have dropped because of the improved play of their backups. Grant could be in a timeshare with James Starks, who presents better value in Round 11, and Mike Tolbert also could be a better Fantasy option than Mathews since he's being drafted in Round 8.
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Wide receiver observations
Three receivers who might have been drafted too high based on their ADP are Brandon Lloyd, Chad Ochocinco and Steve Johnson. All three were drafted as Top 24 receivers, and all three are potential bust candidates.
Lloyd is the No. 19 receiver being drafted, and he was selected ahead of Jeremy Maclin, Mario Manningham and Percy Harvin. All three should perform better than Lloyd this season.
Ochocinco is the No. 22 receiver being drafted, and he has looked awful in the preseason. While he can still turn things around, owners who drafted him as a starter should be having buyer's remorse right now.
And Johnson is the No. 24 receiver drafted, which I find to be good value, but my colleague Dave Richard considers Johnson a bust. I can see his point that Johnson will struggle to match last year's production, but I still would draft him ahead of Lloyd based on the same argument.
On the flip side, three receivers who might prove to be outstanding Draft Day value are Santana Moss, Mike Sims-Walker and Antonio Brown. Moss is the No. 31 receiver being drafted, but he could easily be a Top 24 option if he plays like last year, Sims-Walker (No. 45) could turn out to benefit the most from Josh McDaniels' offense in St. Louis and Brown (No. 63) was the preseason star who could be ready for a breakout campaign as the No. 3 receiver for the Steelers.
Tight end observations
The Patriots tight ends were a hot topic on Draft Day, and it finished with Rob Gronkowski being drafted as the No. 10 tight end in Round 9 and Aaron Hernandez at No. 16 in Round 12. Based on the way both played in the preseason and last year, Hernandez should be the better value on Draft Day, although don't completely overlook Gronkowski as a viable red-zone threat.
Zach Miller and Chris Cooley saw their stock plummet the most. Miller is the No. 13 tight end drafted in Round 11, and Fantasy owners don't seem ready to trust him with the move to Seattle. Cooley dropped to the No. 18 tight end in Round 13 because of a lingering knee injury.
And Lance Kendricks, despite his amazing preseason with three touchdowns, never cracked enough drafts to show up on the ADP. He could be the biggest steal on Draft Day if his preseason performance carries over to the regular season.
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